I hope to do two more of these in the next couple of weeks as tournament time approaches. This community is broader than politics.
There are approximately 300 men's college basketball teams. 65 go to the NCAA tournament with 31 conferences each receiving one automatic bid. One of the 16 seeds plays the 17 seed in a play-in game with the winner to meet a one seed. 30 of those conferences have postseason tournaments to determine the winner of the automatic bid while the Ivy League does it by the regular season winner. (Cornell has wrapped it up.)
There are then 34 at large bids given. Who's in, who's out, who is on the bubble? Records, strength of schedule, quality wins, road wins, quality losses, play down the stretch, and luck all factor into the analysis.
College basketball has six major conferences. (Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac 10.) The vast majority of at large bids will come from these six major conferences.
Next, we have what is known as mid majors and they usually rank from 7-15 in conference strength. Sometimes they include 1-2 dominate national programs, other times these are conferences that have about 4-5 teams that could easily play in the six major conferences. I classify the Atlantic 10, Conference USA, Horizon, Missouri VAlley, Mountain West, and West Coast Conference as mid majors.
Finally, we have the other 19 conferences which generally will have only 1 bid to the tournament.
Of the 19 unmentioned conferences, there are six teams that could be considered for at large bids should that team not win their conference tournament. (VCU, Kent State, Davidson, Stephen F Austin, South Alabama, Western Kentucky)
VCU comes from the Colonial which could be classified as a mid major. They are the regular season champs at 15-3 with an overall record of 23-6, including a great win at Maryland, a good win over Houston, a win at Bradley, okay losses at Miami and Arkansas, and a bad loss to Hampton. They have a good chance at an large.
Kent State comes from the Mid American Conference which has never had multiple bids. Kent State is 23-6 from a weak conference but went out and played some tough teams and its win at St Mary's was huge. They just lost at Bowling Green and with two conference games remaining, can ill afford another loss. If this team reaches the MAC semis with a record of 26-6, it probably gets in as an at large.
Davidson is an interesting case. They were 20-0 in the weak Southern Conference but only 3-6 outside of it. However, They almost beat both Duke and North Carolina and lost by 1 at NC State. Should this team get to 25 wins and lose in its tournament file, they have at an large case. If ever a team should be rewarded for scheduling tough, this team is it. They are damn good and can play with any team in America.
Stephen F Austin had an at large case but probably blew it with its 3rd conference loss in the Southland. Their 23-4 record includes a quality win over Oklahoma but nothing else. They also played four non division one schools. An at large would be very unlikely.
In the Sun Belt we have South Alabama (25-5) and Western Kentucky (24-6). If these two teams meet in the conference finals, the loser may get an at large with South Alabama having the stronger case haven beaten WKU twice, beaten Mississippi State, barely losing at Mississippi, and losing in overtime at Vanderbilt. Western Kentucky has beaten Nebraska and Michigan, has a horrible loss to Northern Arizona, a 10 point loss at Southern Illinois, but may get in because they almost beat Gonzaga and Tennessee. They've won 16 of 18, their only two losses to South Alabama.
MID MAJORS
The Horizon is simple. Butler is in no matter what and will probably be a 4 or 5 seed. The Horizon only gets a second bid if Butler loses in the tournament.
The West Coast Conference is also simple. Gonzaga and St Mary's are locks. No one else gets in unless they win the conference tournament.
In the Missouri Valley, nationally ranked Drake at 25-4 is a lock. Illinois State is 2nd in the conference (13-5) and is 22-8 on the year. Their best out of conference win is over Cincinnati but they lost to Indiana, Kansas State, and Eastern Michigan. A loss to Drake in the tournament finals may or may not be enough. Creighton (10-8, 20-9) merits consideration and has out of conference wins over Nebraska, Depaul, and St Joseph's and an impressive loss at nationally ranked Xavier. Creighton has lost twice to Illinois State and finished behind Southern Illinois, a team that played itself off the bubble with 13 losses despite a tough schedule.
Conference USA is straight forward. Memphis is going to be a 1 seed or 2 seed in the NCAA. UAB and Houston are in consideration for at large bids. Both teams have 21 wins and each beat Kentucky but have little else on their resumes. If all goes to form, they will meet in the Conference USA semifinals. This may be a play in game for an at large bid.
In the Mountain West, BYU (22-6) and UNLV (23-6) appear to be teams that will make the NCAA tournament. New Mexico at 22-7 and third in the conference is on the bubble with work to do. New Mexico has out of conference wins over Texas Tech and Colorado but little else.
Atlantic 10 - This is a royal mess. Xavier at the top is a lock and a top 4 seed in the NCAAS. Earlier in the year, it looked like this conference would get 4-5 bids. They might not even get two or they still could get 4-5 bids. The four teams with the best out of conference resumes are Dayton, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and St Josephs. The problem is that these teams are currently ranked 10th, T-8th, T-3rd, and T-3rd in the conference with teams with no chance at an large bid ahead or tied with them. Massachusetts (8-6, 19-9) has terrible losses to IUPUI and Northern Iowa, wins over Syracuse and Boston Colleges, and a key win over Houston. Their loss at Vanderbilt actually helps. Dayton (6-8, 19-9) has been hurt by injury but earlier beat Pittsburgh and Louisville. If they can win at St Bonaventure (they should) and beat Saint Joes on their home court, they would move to 21-9. This should get them in as an at large. Rhode Island (7-8, 21-9) started strong and beat Syracuse, UAB, and Providence but has lost 6 of its last 8. They need a win over Charlotte at home and probably 2 wins in its conference tournament to get an at large.
MAJORS
ACC - Duke and North Carolina are locks and national title contenders. Clemson (8-6, 20-8) should also be a lock. Maryland (9-6, 19-11) has bad losses to American, Ohio, Missouri and VCU but its win at North Carolina may save them. Its win over Clemson helps, the two losses to Virginia Tech do not. Miami Fl (7-7, 20-8) may be in with an out of conference win over Mississippi State, a win over VCU, and a win at Providence. They also beat Duke, Clemson, and Maryland at home and won at Virginia Tech. A home win over Boston College or a road win at Florida State would give the Hurricanes 8 conference wins and this should be enough. Virginia Tech (8-6, 17-11) performed miserably out of conference with good losses to Butler and Gonzaga but bad losses to Richmond, Penn State, and Old Dominion. In conference they've beaten Maryland twice but have no other impressive wins. A win at Clemson next weekend or a deep run into the ACC tournament is probably a necessity. Wake Forest (6-8, 16-11) has a good win over BYU but little else. They need to win at Virginia Tech and home over NC State to merit consideration.
Big East - Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Connecticut and Marquette are locks. Pittsburgh (9-7, 21-8) with a win over Duke is a near lock. West Virginia (9-7, 20-9) is close as well. Villanova (7-9, 17-11) and Syracuse (7-9, 17-12) both need to win their last two conference games and perhaps more. Right now this looks like a 7 team conference.
Big Ten - This is real simple. Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue and Michigan State are locks. Minnesota (8-8, 18-10) and Ohio State (8-8, 17-12) are on the bubble but right now looking out. Minnesota finishes at Indiana and at Illinois. Two wins there could compensate for a weak schedule and having beaten Ohio State, 20 wins may be enough. Ohio State is struggling down the stretch (4 straight losses) but played tougher teams out of conference. They get Purdue and Michigan State on their home floor. They need both and then some.
Big Twelve - Kansas and Texas are big time locks. Then things get murky with 7 teams still having cases. Baylor (8-6, 20-8) looks good at this point with wins at USC and Notre Dame and a good loss to Washington State. 1 more regular season win should close the deal. Kansas State (8-6, 18-10) has lost 4 straight and needs wins over doormats Colorado and Iowa State to seal the deal. Their out of conference schedule wins are unimpressive but with Michael Beasley, the best college player in America, and victories over Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas A+M on the resume, the human element may overtake the computer numbers. A team with Beasley could go very deep into the NCAAs. Four teams are 7-7 in the Big Twelve. Texas A+M was once a lock but it has lost 4 of 5, had a cupcake out of conference schedule, and with games at Baylor and home to Kansas, this 21-8 team may be in trouble. If they lose their last two regular games and lose in Round 1 of the Big 12 tournament, they're done. Oklahoma is 19-10 overall and coming on. They played a great out of conference schedule with wins over Gonzaga and Arkansas and a competitive game with Memphis. They finish at Oklahoma State and home to Missouri. They probably need both. Oklahoma State (16-12) was left for dead but with 5 straight wins (including Kansas and Baylor) they are back in the conversation. They host Oklahoma and finish at Texas. They can play themselves in or out. Texas Tech 16-12)is also coming on, played a tough out of conference with a good win over Gonzaga and good losses to Butler and Stanford, but inexplicable losses to Sam Houston State and Centenary make them doubtful. They play at Kansas and host Baylor this week. They can play themselves in or remain out. Nebraska (6-8, 17-10) has a good win over Arizona State but needs to win at Texas and get to 8-8 in conference to have an at large shot right now.
SEC - Tennessee and Vanderbilt are locks. Mississippi State (11-3, 20-8) is close, having played great in conference. Florida (8-6, 21-8) is in trouble having 13 soft wins out of conference, losses to Ohio State and Florida State, and half its conference wins against South Carolina and Georgia. They host Tennessee and travel to Kentucky this week. They can play themselves in or out. Kentucky (16-11) is a tough case. Pre conference they were terrible, going 6-7 with losses to the likes of Gardner Webb. Since then they've gone 10-4, having beaten Tennessee and Vanderbilt. But they just lost their super freshman Patrick Patterson for the season yet just played Tennessee tough. They have 2 more regular season games with a must win at home against Florida. If they lose to Florida but finish 11-5 in the SEC, they probably get left out barring a good run in the SEC tournament. Arkansas (8-6, 19-9) would probably be one of the last 3 teams in right now which means they have work to do. Their out of conference schedule was sufficient, wins at Baylor, over VCU help as does its inconference win over Vanderbilt. They play at Mississippi and host Auburn. It's up to them. Mississippi (19-9) started like a house of fire, won at Clemson, but has lost 9 of its last 14 and is only 5-9 in conference. They must beat Arkansas and Georgia. Weird but the team 7-9 in conference could get in while the 11-5 in conference team gets left out.
Pac 10 - UCLA, Stanford, and Washington State are locks. USC (9-7, 18-10) is close, Arizona State is close (8-8, 18-10) and Arizona (7-9, 17-12) is on the bubble. Arizona played one of the toughest schedules in America so if they win at Oregon State (a weak team) and Oregon and get to 9-9 in conference, they should be in. If they lose one, then they would be 3-7 in their last 10 and be in trouble.