Failure to Close?
You want to talk about failing to close?
Senator Clinton has gone from shoe-in to being pressured to drop if SHE doesn't take OH and TX! Perhaps rather than pointing to these next two elections, we should all take a look at the past two MONTHS of elections.
THEN, let's ask: Who exactly are the voters having second thoughts about? The man who is all speeches and no solutions, or the "inevitable" Senator from New York??
follow me down . . .
Let’s consider a generic example:
Starting in 2008, suppose Candidate A was thought of as the inevitable frontrunner to be the nominee for the Democratic Party in 2008. Candidate B, however, was more of a novelty. Sure, he wrote books and gave speeches, but so what? Therefore, it was a surprise to no one that Candidate A led in EVERY poll taken, starting in October 2006 (10/26/06!!) until AFTER the Iowa caucus vote save two (that’s 15 months to us non-thinking Obamabots ;) ).
[Rasmussen 04/16-19/07 has a tie with Candidate B, and USA Today/Gallup has Cand. B +1 on 06/01-03/07.]
What’s more, ever since then, Candidate A has been steadily declining, while Candidate B continues to rise.
In that situation, it is Candidate A that is clearly failing to close.
And having fallen from the inevitable candidate to a candidate hoping to avoiding 15 straight losses AS SOON AS PEOPLE ACTUALLY STARTED TO VOTE, Hillary Clinton is clearly Candidate A.
So when Clinton or her supporters claim that Obama can’t close, laugh at them.
Of course he can ~ he’s been closing all year! He’s on his way up, fighting off the increasingly desperate attacks from an increasingly desperate campaign that is turning on itself, while his continues to grow the party, and motivate the voters.
Senator Obama has an uncanny ability for verbal aikido ~ he uses the opponent’s overreach against them. This latest charge by Clinton and her campaign is indeed a stretch, and I can’t wait for BHO to use it his advantage.
Let them put this idea out there, and let’s be quick to smack them down as fast.
And let the campaign continue onward from tomorrow!
The more Democrats, Republicans and independents get to see Barack, the more they like him, the better he does! Let’s go on to Wyoming and Mississippi, and grab more delegates. And then 6 weeks in PA!!
Are you kidding?!?
Obama will have double the amount of time in ONE state he had for TWO?!?
Yes, please. Thank you.
With that in mind, I see a Wyoming- or Virginia-sized win in PA, say 64-35 as a rough guess. Sadly, that would end the race, and make the May primaries less relevant, but I hope Obama continues to campaign in those states, and tries to keep his momentum going forward, rather than allowing himself (and all of us) a moment to relax.
And for laughs, let’s take a look at the state of the race today, and compare it with Obama’s own campaign’s leaked ‘path to the nomination’ chart.
Presently, according to ARG, it is Obama: 1193, Hillary: 1038 (pledged delegates), a 155 delegate lead. So, let’s add in from the spreadsheet the projected delegate totals, from 03/04 until 06/07: O487, H494 (O -7).
Viola:
Obama 1680
Clinton 1532
Hey, it’s above the Magic Number of 1627 pledged delgates! So don't give up the fight, but also don't give up the ghost if we lose BOTH by 4 or 7 percent (BHO's numbers for TX and OH respectively). We're still on the long road to the White House, and that runner's high is coming!