This is an attempt to objectively assess the state of the primary race. Full disclosure: I was an ardent Edwards supporter, voted for Obama in Illinois after he dropped out, and would be satisfied with either candidate as the nominee--although I think Obama has a slight electability edge in a race against McCain.
Here's where things stand, using Kos's TX projection:
Needed to Win Nomination: 2025 (of 4049). If Florida and Michigan counted, it would be 2182 (of 4362).
Current Pledged:
Obama 1373
Clinton 1231.5
Edwards 26 (from IA, NH and SC)
Uncommitted 9 (from CO)
Current Endorsed Superdelegates (per CNN):
Clinton 238
Obama 194
Current Totals With Endorsed Superdelegates:
Obama 1567
Clinton 1469.5
Edwards 26
Uncomm. 9
Remaining Pledged Delegates (without MI and FL):
Total: 648.5
Wyoming (8-Mar): 12
Mississippi (11-Mar): 33
Democrats Abroad Global Convo (12/13-Apr): 2.5
Pennsylvania (22-Apr): 158
Guam (3-May): 4
Indiana (6-May): 72
North Carolina (6-May): 115
West Virginia (13-May): 28
Kentucky (20-May): 51
Oregon (20-May): 52
Montana (3-Jun): 16
South Dakota (3-Jun): 15
Puerto Rico (7-Jun): 55
Superdelegates who have not yet endorsed: 364.
Possible Florida and Michigan Delegates: 313 (185 FL; 128 MI)
IF the previous Florida and Michigan results were allowed to stand, they would go to:
Clinton 178
Obama 67
Uncommitted 55
Edwards 13
Analysis:
I believe it is unlikely that there is a scenario under which the previous Florida and Michigan results are allowed to stand and impact the race. They are simply too tainted. Especially Michigan, where Obama wasn't even on the ballot. I could see an argument to count Florida, which let's face it is probably a Clinton state regardless of the level of campaigning given the demographics. Nonetheless, either there will be June revotes in the two states or their delegates will continue not to count. Which option it is impacts the odds of a Clinton comeback, however. 141.5 pledged delegates is a lot easier to make up if there are 961.5 to go compared to only 648.5. Also of note, it is now officially impossible for either candidate to win the nomination on pledged delegates alone--adding all remaining pledged delegates to either Clinton or Obama leaves them short of the 2025 threshold for the nomination.
Pledged Delegate Count
Clinton's slightly better than expected showing last night leaves her with a deficit of 141.5 pledged delegates (assuming the Texas caucus numbers hold up). With only 648.5 pledged delegates left, she would need to win 395 (or 61%) of them to win a plurality of 1 of the pledged delegates. If Florida and Michigan held a revote to award 313 extra pledged delegates, Clinton would still need to win 57.4% of the remaining pledged delegates to get a plurality. To get within 50 pledged delegates of Obama (which is probably the biggest deficit one of the candidates could realistically hope to erase with superdelegate votes), Clinton needs 57.1% of the remaining pledged delegates without Michigan and Florida and 54.8% if the two states held revotes. In the unlikely scenario where the previously allocated Florida and Michigan delegates get nominating ballots, Obama's pledged delegate lead would stand at only 30.5. In that scenario, Clinton could win the pledged delegate plurality with 52.4% of the remaining delegates. As noted above, this is highly unlikely at this point.
Remaining States
Leaving Michigan and Florida to the side for the moment, the remaining calendar is fairly balanced. Clinton has Pennsylvania, a state that likely stacks up like Ohio (although with a slightly higher African American population and higher income levels) and another state where she has the governor's machine at her disposal. Beyond Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia and Puerto Rico should favor her based on demographics--although Puerto Rico and Guam are caucuses, an Obama strength.
Obama should do very well in the remaining southern and western primaries: North Carolina (the second largest prize after Pennsylvania), Mississippi, South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana and Oregon.
If there is a revote in MI and FL, that unquestionably favors Clinton. Florida is tailor made for her given the numbers of seniors and Latinos, and she already won it by 17 points when neither side ran a campaign. Michigan is another industrial midwest state which would be very hard fought and close.
Nonetheless, Clinton has a very steep hill to climb to cut into Obama's lead in any significant way. To net 55-60% of the delegates, you need to run the table--which she likely will not do--or really run up the score in the states you win. This is not something Clinton has been able to do anywhere outside of the border South. At the end of the day, I'd guess that the remaining contests will be pretty much a wash, with Clinton picking up low double digits in Pennsylvania and Kentucky, and mid-single digits in Indiana, West Virginia and Puerto Rico; and Obama gaining double digits in North Carolina and single digits in Wyoming, Mississippi, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota. If she gets the gap under 100 without any help from Florida or Michigan, it will be a near miracle. Even with Florida and Michigan revotes, a 60% showing in Florida and 55% in Michigan--the best case for Clinton--gets her about 50 delegates net.
Endgame
With his current pledged delegates and announced superdelegates, Obama is 458 votes short of his majority for the nomination. Splitting the remaining delegates with Clinton would get him within about 130 votes. In other words, he'd need about 35% of the remaining superdelegates to go with him to get the nomination on the first ballot. If he needed them, it push came to shove, he could probably get the 26 Edwards delegates, too. In short, while Obama didn't put Clinton away last night, he is in an extremely strong position. If he can keep up the superdelegate endorsements, he can realistically get to a point where he has 2,025 with his endorsed superdelegates. The number to look for is 325 total superdelegates (131 more) coupled with 1700 pledged delegates (327 more). This may even be doable before Puerto Rico.
For her part, Clinton lived to fight another day last night. Her slim chance at the nomination requires three things:
- Getting Florida and Michigan delegates reinstated in some manner (obviously ratifying the previous results would be best for her, but a revote is almost as good);
- Doing significantly better in the remaining contests than I have projected. A test will come in Mississippi next week. I am assuming a double digit Obama win and a net of 5-6 delegates for him. But Clinton actually won the delegate count in Alabama despite losing the state. If she can do the same, pick off Oregon, make North Carolina close and run up the score in Pennsylvania, Indiana and Kentucky, she can reduce the Obama lead in pledged delegates; and
- Get the bulk of the remaining superdelegates. Like it or lump it, the superdelegates will decide the race at the convention. Clinton built a big early superdelegate lead which Obama has consistently chipped away at. If he does have 50 more set to endorse him, he will take a lead in the supers. She thus has to reverse this momentum, too, and convince the late deciders to go with the candidate that did not win the pledged delegates--a tall order.