The media hullabaloo of the day (well, one of...) surrounds a potential "dream ticket" between the two remaining democratic candidates. Part of this stems from Hillary's comment this morning about a joint ticket, something she alluded to last month as well. The other reason this sounds reasonable at first blush is that the remaining primary schedule is not going to provide any real closure.
Most readers will have seen the math on this 100 times now, but it is worth repeating:
That Clinton has rebuilt a little momentum in the last week, capped off with an impressive win in Ohio, suggests she's not going anywhere in the near future. Still, she does not have enough time nor available pledged delegates remaining to catch Obama. Camp Obama put it in perspective today in an email to supporters pointing out that the total net gain for Clinton on March 4, a day that chopped off 1/3 of the remaining delegates, was 4. That's half what Obama netted from Kansas. To overcome this deficit, she needs to win close to 65% of the remaining votes, and when you factor in the states she's likely to lose (NC, OR for starters), it jumps to nearly 80%. In other words, she's not gonna do it.
It also appears increasingly unlikely that Obama is going to close this out anytime soon either. The math for him to get to 2025 delegates and clinch the nomination is equally rough.
So, with rumors getting the media all hot and bothered, and at best a murky path to the nomination for either candidate, speculation mounts.
With all that said, I submit three reasons why this ain't ever gonna happen:
- The only reason this would happen is if both candidates or the party leadership felt taking this to the convention would irreparably harm the Democrats chances to take back the WH. I share with many on this site (Markos most notably) who think this will only help the party in the long run. A friend working on progressive issues in PA is thrilled by the fact that the focus on PA and progressive issues might help some primary challengers down the ticket looking to knock off incumbent anti-abortion dems.
- The conventional wisdom suggests the ticket would lead with Clinton, given that her experience argument seems to have won out for the time being. Experience up front, energy, youth, "the 45th POTUS" rounding out the ticket... But if she loses both the delegate and popular vote counts, I can't see her claim to the mantle. Plus, what's it gonna be like when he's pulling 20,000 people at a rally at Florida St. as the VP nom, while she's only drawing 4,000 in AZ?? What a weird dynamic that'd be. She's not taking a candidate that's going to outshine her on the trail.
- I don't see him taking her on as the VP either, nor do I see HRC accepting it. From his end, why take on the baggage of the Clintons? Her being on the ticket breathes life into a deflated, divided Republican party, so why bring it back to life? Seems like he could take a Richardson for the experience (and the Hispanic demographic) or Kathy Sebelius/Janet Napolitano to pull the female vote. From Hillary's end of it, after already spending 8 years in the White House, I think she's done playing second fiddle. She'll be 61 by election day, which means she'd have to run again in 2016 when she's almost 70. This is likely her last chance, and I don't think she's going out on her own terms.