A few days ago I thought the Obama had the nomination sewed up, but I'm starting to see how Hillary can win. Let me be clear that I'd prefer Obama, but I don't think what Hillary is doing is irrational or pro-Republican, as a lot of kossacks are saying. It's tough, it's nasty, it's doing whatever it takes: it's war.
It's not that Hillary is bloodying up Obama to weaken him for McCain, so she can run again in 2012. It's that she's bloodying up Obama for Hillary, to make him look weak and unelectable, to strengthen her case both to the remaining voters and the super delegates.
This is what I see as a possible winning strategy:
- She continues on offense, taking advantage of every misstep, every shred of evidence she can find to question his experience, his judgment, his character, his fitness and ultimately, his manliness. It's a nasty game. Obama seemingly has two choices. He can keep quiet and look weak. Or he can respond and look like an Angry Black Man, the one thing he never wants to do. (The success of this approach depends greatly on how well Obama can project strength back without frightening white voters. If anyone can do it, Obama can. But that's the test. The nomination - and election, if he gets that far - will hinge on that.)
- She wins primaries and creates the narrative that now she has momentum, that she wins the big states. It seems to me that her campaign should be the one's demanding - even partially paying for - new primaries in Michigan and Florida. Victories in new primaries there actually would make her case convincing in a way that nothing else between now and August could. It's a huge gamble, but without it I don't see how she wins. But Michigan and Florida are winnable for her and she should risk everything and insist on new elections.
- By hammering at Obama to increase his negatives and by somehow re-establishing that she's a winner, she needs to move polls in her favor, not so much against McCain, but against Obama. This inoculates her against the argument that super delegates shouldn't vote for her because Obama has a lead in regular delegates. She argues, "Forget the delegates, the voters support me now. I may have lost a few elections in February, but now, in August, the voters want me." Ultimately the super delegates have to be convinced that a) she's a stronger candidate and b) they can justify a vote for her based on popular support so they don't appear undemocratic. After all, super delegates see their responsibility as nominating the candidate who can win and need a way to say that the conditions they see at the convention are different than the ones the voters faced in the primaries.
If Obama can respond convincingly to Hillary's attacks I still want him as my candidate. I think he brings more Democrats into the House and Senate than Hillary ever could. I think he changes the mood of the nation in a way Hillary can't. But I'm not counting out Hillary at all. She's relentless.