Remember in early February when the Obama camp "accidentally" leaked their projections for all the remaining contests? How are their projections holding up.
I'm sure everyone remembers the Obama camp projections that were "accidentally" leaked to the press in early February, attached to another memo. Polls for the resulting contests have been up and down, and all over the place. So, how did the Obama camp's own internal projections stand up against the bar they set?
There have been 15 contests since that was "leaked", here they are:
Primary: Louisiana Projected: 31 Actual: 34 Difference: +3
Primary: Nebraska Projected: 15 Actual: 16 Difference: +1
Primary: Virgin Islands Projected: 2 Actual: 3 Difference: +1
Primary: Washington Projected: 49 Actual: 52 Difference: +3
Primary: Maine Projected: 10 Actual: 15 Difference: +5
Primary: Dems Abroad Projected: 5 Actual: 6 Difference: +1
Primary: D.C Projected: 9 Actual: 12 Difference: +3
Primary: Maryland Projected: 37 Actual: 42 Difference: +5
Primary: Virginia Projected: 43 Actual: 54 Difference: +11
Primary: Hawaii Projected: 11 Actual: 14 Difference: +3
Primary: Wisconsin Projected: 40 Actual: 42 Difference: +2
Primary: Ohio Projected: 68 Actual: 66 Difference: -2
Primary: Rhode Island Projected: 8 Actual: 8 Difference: 0
Primary: Texas Projected: 92 Actual: 98* Difference: +6
Primary: Vermont Projected: 9 Actual: 9 Difference: 0
These projections were based on their own internal polling, and as you can see, they have performed quite well against their expectations. They only misprojected the winner in 1 state out of 15, and that was Maine, where they projected Clinton to win, and Obama actually won, and by a large margin. They've only come up short on their projected delegate counts in one state, which was Ohio, where they came up 2 delegates short. Two states they projected were right on their mark, and the other 12, they exceeded their own expectations. All totaled, they've exceeded their delegate projections for those 15 states by 42 total delegates.
Based on all of that, I will be regarding the Obama camp's projections as the playbill going forward. If their projections hold, Obama wins 8 of the remaining 12 contests. They project that he wins 310 of the remaining pledged delegates, Clinton wins 301. So, they project he'll add 9 more delegates to his 144 pledged delegate lead, assuming he doesn't continue to exceed expectations, as he has in 80% of the contests since those projections came out. If he continues to exceed at that pace, his pledged delegate lead could be close to 200, in the end.
It's been interesting to keep an eye on their projections, and I'll continue to do so, through the end. They have been far more reliable than any other polls and projections I've seen out there. If they continue to play out true to form, Obama will end up leading the popular vote, and could have a pledged delegate lead of double digits times two.
Is there a rational argument against that one?
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*based on the NPR report that Obama will come out of Texas with 3 more delegates than Clinton, out of 193 total pledged delegates.