Disclaimer: I'm a white guy.. but I have been paying attention closely to african-american friends, blogs and talk radio. I think there is a simmering anger in the african-american community that HRC is ignoring at her own peril. There is a deep sense of betrayal that I think has opened deep, deep wounds. People don't like being taken for granted and having others assume they will "fall in line".
We can discuss the reasons that the african-american vote will not come out in November for Hillary (assuming she wins without winning the delegate race)... but I'm more interested in which states this will hurt HRC in
To start off I think (and this is my opinion) that the main reason there is anger in the black community is that Barack has played by the rules. The democratic party created a set of rules that Barack is playing within and is winning within. Now, when it's all but certain that he will win the most delegates according to the rules there is a perception that the super-delegates (who are mostly white) are going to overturn the result when a black guy won within the rules. This, fairly or unfairly, reinforces the idea that black people always have to work harder and meet a higher standard than white people... and I think they have a point. Does anyone for even 1 minute think that The super-delegates would even consider overturning the results if the situation was reversed? People don't like being taken for granted, that's for damn sure
I'm going to list some states that I think we could lose with HRC at the top of the ticket if the black vote doesn't turn out. (all numbers from census.gov and based on 2004)... I'm also going to assume that black people vote overwhelmingly democratic in general elections at a rate of between 70 % (low) and 90% (high).. (someone please correct me if those assumptions are way off)... so you can in effect multiply the numbers below by 1.7-1.9 to get a rough idea of the impact on the democratic voter base
http://www.census.gov/...
Illinois - The black vote is about 14% of the total electorate
New Jersey - The black vote is about 13% of the total electorate
New York - The black vote is about 16.5% of the total electorate
Pennsylvania - The black vote is about 9.5% of the total electorate
California - The black vote is about 6.7% of the total electorate
Ohio - The black vote is about 11% of the total electorate
Looking at the numbers it appears that New Jersey would definitely be lost to HRC without the black vote. In fact, I think that Illinois and New York would likely be lost if the black vote does not turn out for HRC.... and certainly some of the other states may fall as losses also.
Is Clinton playing with fire? It appears that her current quest to subvert the will of the voters could completely devastate our chances in the fall if she continues to alienate african americans.
Update: Rec this if you would like.. this conversation needs to be had.. but let's try to focus a bit more on what states this would really hurt in .