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The widely celebrated Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll report that reported a statistically insignificant 2pt lead for Barack Obama among Likely Democratic Primary voters contained another piece of worrying news about a Barack Obama nomination:  the economy.

New polling released today shows that voters trust Clinton more than McCain on the economy and McCain more than Clinton when it comes to reducing government corruption. Those preferences are reversed when McCain was compared to Obama.

Rasmussen is reporting that voters trust Hillary Clinton more than John McCain when it comes to the economy.  No shock there.  The Clinton name is associated with a strong, growing economy and balanced budgets.  What is shocking is that another poll showed that John McCain is trusted more on the economy than Senator Obama.

Could this be a problem for Senator Obama in November?  The most recent poll I could find was a CBS/NY Times poll conducted Feb. 20-24.  When asked which issue was most important to voters, 33% said the economy.  The war in Iraq was second at 20%.  Health care was third at 7%.  

Barack Obama needs to work on his economic credentials because the economy is important to voters and his message is not resonating with voters.  These findings may explain why Hillary carried Ohio with a double-digit margin.  Remember that her controversial 3am ad did not air in Ohio.  

I was raised in the Northern Panhandle of West Virginia.  This tri-state area has suffered economically as the industrial sector of the economy has declined over the last 20 years.  I, personally, find Obama's appeal about hope and change and new politics very exciting.  It happens that I find Hillary more appealing.  As much as I genuinely do like Barack Obama, his message is not resonating with these blue-collar voters.

In 2000, Gore lost West Virginia.  The reason he lost was a speech he gave in 1992 near my hometown.  He promised to enforce trade laws and protect local voters.  When the Clinton administration refused to enforce trade laws to stop steel dumping from China and Brazil, voters in my area took their anger out on Al Gore.  They looked at Al Gore and saw a politician they didn't trust and they looked at George Bush and say a politician who wouldn't be any more helpful, but they agreed with his views on social issues.  One painful irony for me is that George Bush's steel tariffs saved my father's company and his pension and his job.

Although I am a Clinton partisan, I am fond of Barack Obama and I am committed to supporting him, should he be the nominee.  The point of this diary is not to attack him, but to point to a very big weakness that needs to be addressed.  Blue collar voters don't get Barack Obama the way many other progressive voters.  John McCain, on the other hand, makes a lot of sense.  He's easier "to get."

Just an aside.  One more finding in the poll should give all of us, both Obama and Clinton partisans, some pause:

The General Election remains essentially tied. McCain leads Obama 45% to 44% while Clinton leads McCain 46% to 45% (see recent daily results). Both single-point leads are statistically insignificant. In each match-up, McCain benefits from a significant number of voters who preferred the other candidate in the Democratic Primary. This suggests that if the Democrats can unify their party by fall, McCain could be at a significant disadvantage. On the other hand, McCain could benefit greatly if the Democratic battle spins further out of control.

This is consistent with findings in some state polls, as well.  Rasmussen released a poll on Saturday that found Obama leading Clinton by 14 points in Mississippi.  It also found that many of their supporters have negative views of their opponents:

One measure of a deepening divide in the party is that just 56% of Obama voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Just 34% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Obama.

If Obama is nominated, just 47% of Clinton voters say they are even somewhat likely to vote for Obama in the general election against John McCain.

If Clinton is nominated, 65% of Obama voters say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for her against McCain.

Similar results in a poll of Michigan voters released on Friday:

If Clinton wins the nomination, just 50% of Obama voters say they would be even somewhat likely to vote for her against John McCain. Thirty-five percent (35%) say they are Not at All Likely to vote for Clinton in the general election.

On the other hand, if Obama wins the nomination, just 52% of Clinton voters would be even somewhat likely to vote for him against John McCain. Twenty-five percent (25%) say they are Not at All Likely to vote for Obama in the general election.

At the end of this battle, it is critical that we rally around the nominee.  The only way this happens is if the supporters of the loser believe that the  winner fairly the won nomination.  Therefore, it is absolutely critical that the Michigan and Florida issue is settled in a way that satisfies both sides.  The cannot be shut out, and their delegations cannot be sat as is.  I hope our party leaders are taking this seriously.

Originally posted to Just PsycoBabble on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:20 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  It's the economy, stupid! (23+ / 0-)

    Let me reiterate:  This is not intended as a hit diary.

    Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

    by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:19:02 PM PDT

  •  Good information (10+ / 0-)

    Thanks for the diary pyschodrew, well written, very informative.

  •  Yep (8+ / 0-)

    That's silly. Mccain said he doesn't even understand the economy. I am not really worried about that. I suspect Obama will be quoting that line over and over again come the GE.

    Also...Obama still beats Mccain in that poll.

    Pennsylvania=Iowa. It won't even be close!

    by jenontheshore on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:20:30 PM PDT

    •  Yes, he does. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dskinner, madgranny, JoeySky18

      My point is that blue collar voters where I am from don't get Obama's message.  It's not resonating with them.  They understand McCain.

      Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

      by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:22:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Your point can't be made with one poll (1+ / 2-)
        Recommended by:
        EvilPaula
        Hidden by:
        macmcd, psychodrew

        Hillary loses indies, Obama loses old racist white people.  

        It may be time to cleanse the party of the Ferraros.

        I say, Bush = McCain and Hillary says, Hillary = McCain, therefore, Hillary = Bush. Vote Obama.

        by Hope08 on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:41:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I am a person who will be lost by (0+ / 0-)

          Obama because of his supporters attempting to paint anyone who does not support him as a racist.  He is the one who introduced racism into this primary and Sharpton is fanning the fire.  Shame on those who are responsible.

          I troll-rated you because of the racism comment.

          The soul is not the ego in drag. Ken Wilber

          by macmcd on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:41:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I wrote that b/c race was a factor in (0+ / 0-)

            Ohio.  the exit polls showed it.  Just b/c you HR it doesn't make it any less true.  I didn't say all Clinton supporter were racists but some are.  Some will in the GE refuse to vote for him b/c he's Black.  I'm sick of Clinton supporters playing this "you're playing the race card".  Your girl Ferraro fans those flames too.  

            If Obama supporters refused to vote for Hillary b/c she's a woman.  That's sexist.  

            I say, Bush = McCain and Hillary says, Hillary = McCain, therefore, Hillary = Bush. Vote Obama.

            by Hope08 on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:48:46 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think the Ferraro was pointing out (0+ / 0-)

              that Obama's coalition is made up of black voters, young voters, and up-scale Democrats.  If he were white, a lot of those white voters would go to Hillary.  I've heard a lot of other people make that argument in a less clumsy manner.

              Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

              by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 07:56:40 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  They are NOT racist. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          votermom

          They are blue-collar, down-trodden workers, the same that Obama worked with in Chicago.

          They don't get his message.  It has nothing to do with race.  My parents fall into this category and I am very offended that you would call them "old racist white people."

          Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

          by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 08:00:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  you are right (0+ / 0-)

        and Obama and his advisors need to face up to this and make an effective pitch to bluecolor folks.  I'm an Obama supporter who won't vote for Clinton but I appreciate the information in this diary--facts must be face before they can be delt with effectively.

      •  What should he do? (0+ / 0-)

        With your understanding of the people you grew up with, what would you recommend Obama do to get his message across?  Or do you think his actual policies miss the mark?

        •  The people where I grew up (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          votermom, En Passant

          are angry and cynical about politics.  Obama's talk about hope and change sound wishy-washy to them.  I checked the OH numbers for Southeast OH, near my hometown.  Hillary carried these conservative, blue-collar voters 70-30 in some places.

          What Obama needs to do is empathize with the voters.  They won't vote for him if they don't think he really understands them.  The other thing he needs to do is be a fighter, an advocate.  It will be difficult to make the fit in with the hope, change, new politics theme, but I think he can do it. He's a gifted politician.

          Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

          by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:48:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Cynicism (0+ / 0-)

            Does their cynicism derive from being burned by Bill Clinton's broken promises or is it a deeper cynicism with politics?  Do you think they're aware that politics over the last 25 years been played as a game of 50+1 and if their votes aren't needed, they get ignored?

            •  They aren't very found of Clinton (0+ / 0-)

              where I live.

              They are tired of being kicked around.  The want solutions.  If the Democrats won't deliver, they'll vote for McCain.  He's plain-spoken and he shares their views on social issues.  

              Oh, they follow politics very carefully where I'm from.  The attitude of these voters basically is, "I supported Democrats for all these years and they gave my jobs away.  I might as well vote for the Republican who agrees with my on abortion, gay marriage, and guns.  I know he'll screw me on economic issues, but at least he won't lie to me like the Democrats."

              Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

              by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 07:17:11 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  Sen. Obama is speaking in Mississippi (4+ / 0-)

    right now. He's speaking at Jackson State University. Steaming live at www.wjtv.com. The crowd is pumped and he sounds great! Go there and listen!!!

    Oh, and he talked about the hits families take when companies send jobs overseas. Now he's talking about making college more affordable for everyone.

    -7.38, -5.23 One day we ALL will know the truth about the 2000 presidential election. God help us all.

    by CocoaLove on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:21:08 PM PDT

  •  They won't trust McCain... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jeepdad, barath, la urracca

    ...once people recognize he knows jack shit about the economy and believes the solution to all problems in the world is blowing up more brown people.

    •  If you look at my comment on the 2000 election. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      heineken1717

      In 2000, Gore lost West Virginia.  The reason he lost was a speech he gave in 1992 near my hometown.  He promised to enforce trade laws and protect local voters.  When the Clinton administration refused to enforce trade laws to stop steel dumping from China and Brazil, voters in my area took their anger out on Al Gore.  They looked at Al Gore and saw a politician they didn't trust and they looked at George Bush and say a politician who wouldn't be any more helpful, but they agreed with his views on social issues.

      If they don't trust either candidate, they'll go with the one they relate to, the one who makes sense to them.  That candidate is John McCain.

      Obama really needs to work on this.  These voters want someone who will fight for them, that's why they're going with Hillary right now.

      Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

      by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:26:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  People trust Obama MORE than McCain. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Hope08

        New polling released today shows that voters trust Clinton more than McCain on the economy and McCain more than Clinton when it comes to reducing government corruption. Those preferences are reversed when McCain was compared to Obama.

        Your comment basically enforces why Obama will beat McCain.

      •  Obama's going to lose Appalachia country... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Same As It Ever Was

        ...for other reasons unrelated to the economy.

        Just imagine a debate - Obama will be talking sensibly about getting us back in shape, while McCain will just throw out crap about cutting taxes and making the Bush tax cuts permanent - and sound like a complete moron in doing so. No one's going to buy it.

        •  You mean racism? (0+ / 0-)

          I don't sense that that is much of an issue, but I could be wrong.  I think the only voters who would vote on that basis wouldn't vote for Hillary because she is a woman.

          Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

          by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:33:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I hope you're wrong (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          metal prophet

          Obama needs to study John F. Kennedy's campaign in West Virginia.  He can win it.

          •  Yup bring along (0+ / 0-)

            Caroline Kennedy and Ted Kennedy on the stump.  Ohio exits show a reason for concern, but WV is winnable.

            •  Big mistake. (0+ / 0-)

              I don't think the Kennedy's will help.  After Obama got Teddy's endorsement, my mother and I were talking on the phone and she told me that the consensus in her office is that Teddy endorsed Obama because he's an empty suit.  They think Teddy wants to be a puppet-master.

              Now I don't believe that.  But the thing you have to remember is that these blue-collar workers in the rust belt are angry and cynical.  They want solutions.  They want a fighter.  They want an advocate.  They aren't buying the hope and change message.

              Barack Obama knows these people.  I read that he worked with industrial workers in Chicago who lost their jobs.  He knows how to speak to them, but he's not doing it right now.

              Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

              by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 07:10:29 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  That's precisely what Obama needs to do... (0+ / 0-)

            ....in the upcoming weeks throughout rural and rust-belt parts of Pennsylvania.

    •  he has someone working on a "bold" economic plan (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dskinner

      then he'll just need to make the words sound convincing.

      •  He needs to sound like a fighter, an advocate. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dskinner

        These voters aren't particularly found of Bill Clinton, but they know that Hillary is tenacious, a fighter.  He needs to inspire these voters the way he inspires the college students.

        Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

        by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:29:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  oops! i was talkin' McCain. should have clarified (0+ / 0-)
        •  you guys (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dskinner, Same As It Ever Was

          She's right.  process the info, stop rejecting. Obama can cut into Hillary's base by using the word fight more. For example suppose he had testimonial style ads of his donors and and the donors said somthing like "He'' firt for us"  The fact that nearly a million people have given him a small donation proves that he is a populist--he needs to emphasize this more.

          There are A LOT of people who vote for style not subastance. That's just a factg about our political life.

  •  You can thank (0+ / 0-)

    Clinton in part for this misconception. She has bee a meme maker for the republicans this campaign season.

    2+2 = 5 : For Extremely large values of 2

    by Eidolon on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:27:28 PM PDT

  •  So people see Obama as less corrupt than McCain. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    demkat620

    Cool.  I'm sure that won't work at all for Obama in the general election.

    •  I'm sure it will. (0+ / 0-)

      Unless the GOP is able to use Rezko or something else against Obama.  I think the McCain's image as a maverick and his record on campaign finance reform will be hard to dislodge.

      Again, my point here is that Obama needs to work on his economic message.

      Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

      by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:31:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Bad economy == incumbent party thrown out. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cardinal, Same As It Ever Was

    Almost without fail, a bad economy is bad for the incumbent party. Our economic problems are easy to pin on Bush's economics of wishful thinking, and by extension on the Republican party. This will be true whether the nominee is Obama, Clinton, or Gravel (hey, it could still happen).

    •  in 2004 the economy reeked (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, eataTREE, Lynwaz

      "jobless recovery" and Bush won. First president to lose jobs since the Depression, and Bush won. Ohio lost basically all its jobs, Bush won.

      •  Because of TERRA! (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        heineken1717, Hope08

        Yes, this is true, they won anyway with the strategy of TERRA! TERRA'ISTS! HIDING UNDER YOUR BED! OSAMA BIN LADEN WILL SODOMIZE YOUR DOG! TERRA! DON'T THINK, JUST BE AFRAID!

        Knock wood, that won't work twice in a row. You can only distract people from the fact that you've screwed up the country for so long.

        •  Hopefully (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          eataTREE, dskinner, heineken1717

          But a lot can happen between now and November.  Again, I get back to my point, Obama needs to sound like more of an advocate, a fighter for blue collar voters, or they will vote for McCain.

          Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

          by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:37:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  sheesh (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            dskinner

            Wow psychodrew makes a prefectly valid point and all these fols rush in to reject it. I hope the people at the top of Obama's campaign aren't this thick headed.

            Different appeals work for different people.  Blue color folks are looking for someone who will fight for them. Obama does need to devise an effective way to appeal to them.  There are racist bluecolor folks but it is stereotyped thinking to reject them all as being not worth the effort.

            I won't vote for Clinont but this individual poster--psychodrew-- is giving good sound advise.

        •  It's the law of diminishing returns (0+ / 0-)

          It won big for Republicans in 2002 and by just enough to win narrowly in 2004, but the fear strategy pretty much ran out of fuel by 2006. I think it'll be tough to make people VERY AFRAID again for a good while. It's not going to play in 2008.

    •  Hopefully (0+ / 0-)

      I just don't want to see OH, WV, MI, and PA all go red.  I trust Obama on the economy more than John McCain.  He needs to get these voters on his side.  It's critical. Right now, what he is saying is not working.

      Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

      by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:32:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  the contrast b/w Obama and McCain will (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Same As It Ever Was

    get sharper once the GE campaign begins (sometime in June, when Obama will have wrapped up the pledged delegate lead and hence the nomination).

    •  Perhaps. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AnnieM

      But he needs to start resonating with these voters sooner rather than later.

      Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

      by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:39:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's one of the reasons Clinton should drop out (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Same As It Ever Was

        soon as it becomes crystal clear that she won't win the pledged delegate lead and hence she won't win the nomination.

        At the very least, she should curtail the negative attacks of the kind she lanuched against Obama in TX and OH.

        •  But what if he can't do it? Better to find that.. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          heineken1717

          out before he's the nominee don't you think?  He has plenty of time.  Let's see what he does...I think the next two months will tell us plenty.

          "A change would do U.S. good!"

          by AnnieM on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:47:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  stop with this nonsense please (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          AnnieM, CanadaWest, dskinner

          the "pledged delegate lead" is such a farce. She won New Hampshire and didn't win the delegates. She won Nevada and didn't win the delegates. She won Texas and didn't win the delegates. She won huge New Jersey, but her delegate margin there was canceled out by a loss in tiny Idaho. The delegate count is a complete joke.

          •  Obama is ahead in the popular vote by 600K+ votes (0+ / 0-)

            Add another 50-100K for caucuses that didn't release popular vote tallies.

            •  Pennsylvania has not yet voted (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              AnnieM, CanadaWest, dskinner

              Her margin there will be enormous. Haven't you guys learned your lesson with writing her obituary? Strictly hilarious.

              •  Plus re-votes in MI and FL (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                AnnieM, CanadaWest, heineken1717

                This isn't over yet, not by a longshot.

                Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

                by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:04:19 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  She would need 58% of the remaining pledged (2+ / 0-)

                  delegates even if you factor in FL and MI. 62% w/o a revote.

                  •  as I noted before (0+ / 0-)

                    pledged delegates are complete bullshit. She didn't win the pledged delegates despite winning the most votes in several states, and her big state wins resulted in delegate margins canceled out by tiny state losses. The pledged delegates have been rendered meaningless by these instances of ridiculous allocation that subverts the will of those states' voters.

                •  exactly (0+ / 0-)

                  Throw in PA, MI, and FL, and I see Hillary as the odds-on favorite to win the popular vote. And if she does, she's a lock on the nomination, there's no way in hell the superdelegates wouldn't select her when she wins all the big states (minus uncontested Illinois) AND the popular vote AND the electoral vote (based on states won). She's already got the big states locked up. She's extremely likely to end up with the lead in electoral votes (and that is, after all, how we pick our President). I think those 2 items are probably enough on their own to justifiably sway the superdelegates, but throw in the popular vote and you can take it to the bank.

                  •  delegates decide the race. pledged delegates (0+ / 0-)

                    are elected by the people according to preset rules. Super delegates better not overturn a pledged delegate win (either way, C or O).

                    Had Clinton been doing better on PDs and poorly on the popular vote, I bet you'd be shilling contrary to what you're saying. That's the kind of rank hypocrisy that wingnuts are famous for. We're better than that.

                    Gore didn't win the 2000 election because he won the popular vote. He likely won it because had the supreme court no intervened, the FLSC ordered recount would've shown that he won FL.

                    •  "preset rules" (0+ / 0-)

                      if you're going to obsess over "preset rules", you need to be consistent and acknowledge that superdelegates voting however they want to are also "preset rules." Clearly YOU are the one being hypocritical, loving the preset rules that favor your candidate (pledged delegate allocation that thwarts the will of the voters) and hating the preset rules that favor his opponent (superdelegates with freedom to choose anyone).

                      I like how you assume I'd be a hypocrite, with no evidence at all, while I have PROOF that you in fact are a hypocrite.

                      I suggest you tread lightly before you bring up Gore's loss despite winning the popular vote. He lost because of the electoral college (technically), which Hillary is leading.

                    •  If one candidate wins the most popular votes (0+ / 0-)

                      and the other wins the most pledged delegates, the majority of voters want the nomination to go to the winner of the most popular votes.

                      I wrote on this Sunday.

                      If it went the other way, especially when Obama has won so many delegates from caucuses that disenfranchise so many voters, it would be undemocratic.

                      Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

                      by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:19:05 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Clinton is behind by 700K in pop vote (0+ / 0-)

                        (when we count the caucuses IA, NV etc) and is trailing by 155 pledged delegates. Since Obama will win or do well in some of the remaining contests, even with PA, MI and FL, HRC would still need double digit wins in ALL of them and needs 7 million+ voter turn in those states combined. Even then they'd be nearly tied in popular vote.

                        So, don't assume she will pull ahead in the popular vote. That's also a tall enough order for her.

                        If Obama is ahead by 50-100 PDs and the popular vote is close, of course he should be the nominee by any justifiable reasoning.

                      •  Enough with this nonsense about caucuses (0+ / 0-)

                        Clinton had the opportunity to object to caucuses in 2007. I didn't hear her complaining about them, then. Frankly, I thought that the caucuses would go for her, since they're historically dominated by political insiders, who Clinton had a lot of support from. But then, a funny thing happened. Obama, the ultimate organizer, realized how caucuses work and realized that he could get big wins by getting more people to show up at caucuses. For whatever reason, Clinton chose not to do this, despite having the money to get tons of people to caucuses and educate them about the process, as Obama did. Why should we penalize Obama for understanding the rules and building grassroots support?

                        And anyway, Obama has won more primaries than Clinton.

              •  I never really wrote an HRC obituary, (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Same As It Ever Was

                because I know she's tenacious.

                I know exactly what happened in OH and TX. Her fear-mongering and negative attacks worked while Obama was caught in a situation of being the perceived front-runner coming under simultaneous attacks from the Clinton camp, McCain, wingnuts and to some degree Nader. His team wasn't prepared for it, but he learns fast, and so they're catching up to deal with things. Still, he managed to stay close in TX (but lost by the same margin he was in OH when the race shifted to TX and OH).

                Hillary Clinton started this race 15-25% in the front (a good part from the Clinton brand name recognition). She trails on all important counts now.

                In order to win pledged delegate lead, she needs to win 58-62% of the remaining plegded delegates, which is a very high hurdle. If Obama wins the pledged delegate count and is denied the nomination (for no good reason other than Clintons' personal ambition), the party will pay for it for a couple of generations.

              •  Yes.... (0+ / 0-)

                ....but there are also elections in Oregon, Mississippi, Indiana, etc. where Obama will certainly increase his margin. Look at the math and it becomes clear that Clinton will probably not overtake Obama on ANY level, short of mass defections of superdelagates.

                •  What about the popular vote? (0+ / 0-)

                  I've seen projections that put a popular vote lead within reach.

                  Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

                  by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 07:20:06 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I've seen others (0+ / 0-)

                    Clinton would have to win by a larger than expected majority in Pennsylvania and cut into Obama's margins in states where he's expected to win fairly significantly, iirc. And, apart from Oklahoma, Rhode Island, New York, and Arkansas, Clinton hasn't had many blowout wins. Obama, even in states where he loses, keeps it pretty close. This makes it tough for Clinton to close the gap in the popular vote and nearly impossible to close the delegate gap.

          •  Nonsense? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            NeuvoLiberal

            It's the delegates that determine the result.  Hate to break the news.

            Why won't Clinton release the tax returns? What's she hiding?

            by Same As It Ever Was on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:09:12 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  As long as a lead in the popular vote (0+ / 0-)

          remains plausible, I want Hillary to stay in the race.

          Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

          by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:29:52 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  if she continues to wage a negative campaign (0+ / 0-)

            and thus hurts Obama's and the party's chances in November, party leaders should sternly tell her to cut out the negatives attacks or quite.

            If she doesn't continue down the negative path, I don't think there is anything particularly wrong with running this through June (but not much later) except for allowing McCain to build himself up while we burn/spend tens of millions in what looks like a failing pursuit (of not seemingly likely to win the PD lead) by Clinton.

            •  She hasn't crossed any lines for me. (0+ / 0-)

              Obama went after her judgment and honesty.  His readiness to be president is a legitimate target.  As Obama himself once said, this is not a race for city council.  It's a race for the presidency.

              Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

              by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:38:01 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  She has been ridiculousy and blantantly (0+ / 0-)

                negtive. Here is partial list:

                Hillary Clinton's negative attacks and tactics against Obama:
                3/2/2008

                1. "Shame on you, Barack Obama"
                1. 3 AM Ad
                1. "Obama is a blank screen"
                1. "He isn't ready to be commander-in-chief" (as she implied)
                1. Xerox stink bomb
                1. the "cult" meme (Sidney Blumenthal spread this)
                1. plagiarism nonsense attacks (Wolfson peddled this)
                1. misleading "15 million" mailers (to which he responded with his own HC mailers)
                1. NH abortion mailers
                1. all sorts of race baiting and ghettoizing tactics found here
                1. Muslim/Madrassa smear peddled by surrogates and smear emails forwarded by surrogates
                1. Her latest attack saying Hillary: McCain would be better than Obama!  

                Her judgement on the war must be questioned HARD. She and McCain voted to authorize the war w/o reading the NIE. In fact, it's disappointing to see that she has done as well as she has as Democrat having supported the war strongly as she did.

                He questioned her honesty (on some issues) no more than she did.

                He should call her on the mendacity of her Phantom Ticket Gate game when she was out denigrating Obama vis-a-vis McCain.

                I think that I have a lifetime of experience that I will bring to the White House. I know Senator McCain has a lifetime of experience to the White House. And Senator Obama has a speech he gave in 2002," Clinton says.
                Link

  •  so she is campaigning on her husbands name? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SecondComing, Hope08

    The Clinton name is associated with a strong, growing economy and balanced budgets.

    nice qualifications.

    "my husband was good at stuff like the economy."

    •  That's not what I meant. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gecko, AnnieM, dskinner, JoeySky18

      When voters hear the name Clinton, they think of good economic times.  She has painted herself as a fighter, an advocate.  She uses tough talk in her ads and her speeches.   That is resonating with the blue collar workers more than Obama's hope and change message.

      Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

      by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:38:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think this is an important point.... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dskinner

        The hope and change message is a great message but I think voter are now looking for more information on just how Obama is going to bring about this change.  I think that is what he needs to focus on ... more substantive plans....for the economy, Iraq, etc.

        "A change would do U.S. good!"

        by AnnieM on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:50:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Well saying this.... (0+ / 0-)

        She has painted herself as a fighter, an advocate.

        and it actually being true are two different things.

        As for substance as mentioned below, lets address HRC's.

        Lets hear the substance of this "experience", because what you listed below and everything I have heard from her campaign has been vague.

        As for Obama's substance on how he is going to implement the change her brings is by providing the vision for Congress to do their job and implement the vision. That has been the role of the president for the last 150+ years, why change it now??

        It was good for the first 43.

        •  We're not ever going to agree (0+ / 0-)

          on the substance of Hillary's experience.  I believe that she has lots of experience, more than Obama, and you do not.  We can go round and round in circles for an hour, but we're not going to ever agree.

          My point is, and it is supported by the data in my diary, that Obama is not connecting with voters, especially blue-voters, on the economy and that will be an important issue in the fall.

          He might be able to do so in the future, but so might John McCain.  It's a weakness that needs to be addressed.

          As for Obama's substance on how he is going to implement the change her brings is by providing the vision for Congress to do their job and implement the vision.

          How does he plan to move Congress to implement his agenda?  There are entrenched forces that are well-funded and they won't go away just because Obama wants them to.

          Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

          by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:23:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I think voters are looking for something a little (0+ / 0-)

          more concrete from Obama.  

          "A change would do U.S. good!"

          by AnnieM on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:32:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  But... (0+ / 0-)

        You said they rejected Gore because of Bill Clinton's trade policies.  How does that square?

        •  nice mis-characterization. (0+ / 0-)

          very clinton/rove-esque.

        •  Gore came to a town near my home town in 1992 (0+ / 0-)

          and he swore the Clinton/Gore would promise to enforce trade laws and protect jobs from overseas competition.  In the late '90s, there were accusations that Brazil, China, and Japan were dumping steel on the US market and the Clinton administration did not enforce anti-dumping laws, apparently at the urging of Robert Rubin, then Secretary of Treasury.

          The voters where I lived felt betrayed and punished Gore for this in 2000.  It certainly cost Gore WV in 2000.  The irony is that Bush did put enforce temporary tariffs that saved several steel companies, including my fathers.  That probably makes WV safely Republican for a long time to come.

          The very painful irony for me is that Bush saved my father's job and his pension and our family's livelihood.  Had Gore been elected, the factor probably would have closed and my family would have suffered immeasurably.  That said, we also wouldn't be in Iraq right now.  It's an irony that is not lost on my family members, who otherwise dislike Bush, but appreciate that he, not the Democrats who were supported by unions for so long, saved their jobs.

          Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

          by psychodrew on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:06:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  stock market just taking a nose dive again today (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    psychodrew

    i'm really worry about the economy.  And in my opinion, only Hillary knows what she will be doing to pump up the economy.  

    She's a diamond, strong, bright, and precious.

    by JoeySky18 on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:46:59 PM PDT

  •  So what exactly is HRC's economic record? (0+ / 0-)

    Is the post suggesting that her economic record is Bill Clintons's record, and if so is this merely a call for a third term of the Clinton administration?

    •  That's not what I'm suggesting. (0+ / 0-)

      I should have been more clear in my diary.

      Hillary has cast herself as a fighter.  She uses tough language that resonates with the blue-collar voters.  The voters where I am from aren't found of Bill Clinton because of trade, but they like Hillary because they think she's a fighter.  If Edwards were still in the race, he'd be carrying my hometown.

      Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

      by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:01:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A couple things, (0+ / 0-)

    first, while the 3am ad was not shown in OH it was played nationally again and again and again and again by CNN, MSNBC, and probably FOX(but I don't know cause I don't watch FOX).  No doubt those in OH saw the ad many times.  I don't believe it had much impact anyway since it was such a crummy ad.

    Second, these polls are not particularly useful at this point.  How many people are aware that McCain said he didn't really know much about the economy?  It will sure make a great DNC ad along with the fact that McCain wants us in Iraq for 100 years and $12 billion a month.  Campaigns change poll numbers.  With PA coming up I would guess Senator Obama will focus more on Economic issues.

    One bad thing was a train got crashed in New Jersey. People won't be late for work though, because the governor lady said, "I'm sending in more trains!"

    by msstaley on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:50:53 PM PDT

    •  GE polls this far out are not (0+ / 0-)

      that meaningful.  But they do point to a weakness that Obama has to address.

      Obama needs to work on his economic message if he wants to carry blue-collar voters.  He needs to sound like more of an advocate, a fighter.

      Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

      by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:58:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Why on earth... (0+ / 0-)

    ...would you cherrypick this result out of the Rasmussen poll?

    On Monday, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows—for the first time in a week--Barack Obama with a slight advantage over Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. It’s Obama 46% Clinton 44%.

    •  What's your point? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Same As It Ever Was

      I quoted that section because of what followed:

      The General Election remains essentially tied. McCain leads Obama 45% to 44% while Clinton leads McCain 46% to 45% (see recent daily results). Both single-point leads are statistically insignificant. In each match-up, McCain benefits from a significant number of voters who preferred the other candidate in the Democratic Primary. This suggests that if the Democrats can unify their party by fall, McCain could be at a significant disadvantage. On the other hand, McCain could benefit greatly if the Democratic battle spins further out of control.

      I was point to polling data that shows that party unity may is critical to our chances in November.

      Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

      by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:55:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Oops. (0+ / 0-)

      I quoted the wrong spot in my response above.

      But I repeat my question.  What do you mean by cherry-picking?  Those numbers were referenced several times here today.

      Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

      by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:57:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think it's good to know what's behind the (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      psychodrew

      poll numbers.  Good and Bad and it seems we only get the good news on the front page.  I think it's interesting to know Obama's strengths as well as his weaknesses.

      "A change would do U.S. good!"

      by AnnieM on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:00:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Mccain's flaccid economic policies (0+ / 0-)

    will sink him in november. He's got nothing and he can't win going up against either Obama or Clinton there. That's why Clinton's got all gun's blazing trying to knock Obama off on National security right now. As soon as the  the Democratic nominee is picked, whether it's Clinton or Obama, they will swing the focus 100% onto the economy. Mccain is a sitting duck.

    •  McCain won't be a sitting duck (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dskinner

      if voters aren't buying Obama's economic message.  The blue-collar voters in OH and PA aren't buying it.

      Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

      by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:03:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I think HRC's next campaign ad should be... (0+ / 0-)

    this diary read from beginning to end, with Yanni playing serenely in the background, on the beach, at dawn.

    •  So you haven't anything intelligent to add? n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dskinner

      Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

      by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:02:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You could say the same.... (0+ / 0-)

        ....about 90% of the anti-Obama diaries here, though admittedly, yours was pretty substantial, though I do disagree.

      •  Look, I'm sorry. But... (0+ / 0-)

        I can't take seriously any diary that begins with "The widely celebrated Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll report that reported a statistically insignificant 2pt lead for Barack Obama among Likely Democratic Primary voters contained another piece of worrying news about a Barack Obama nomination..."

        First, the "widely celebrated Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll?"  Rasmussen has been widely celebrated in general elections.  But he has a lousy track record for the primary season.  

        Second, BHO's 2-point lead is a worrying piece of news for his campaign?  Wouldn't this be more worrying to HRC as a 2-point deficit?  Furthermore, wouldn't the fact that HRC dropped 5 points from 49% to 44% and BHO  gained 3 points from 43% to 46% in the past 3 days be more of an indicator than a single snap shot of a daily tracking poll.  That's an 8-point swing for Obama in three days.  Remind me again why this should worry Obama?

        So, right.  I'm sorry if I couldn't take the remainder of your slanted-from-the-get-go diary seriously.

  •  The ironic thing is that Obama has actually spent (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Fight or Die

    a lot of time down in the trenches helping the poor in Chicago. Obama grew up in a single parent family and feels the economy in his bones. Clinton had it a lot easier growing up, although certainly nowhere near as easy as Bush.

    The people you are talking about put Bush in office. He has no clue, just like his Dad who never saw a grocery scanner. He's amazed at how high gas prices have gotten. The voters you talk about should link the situation now with their votes then. Their lives would have been a lot better if they had gone ahead and voted for Gore, and that's regardless of the fact that Bush helped with steel tariffs.

    If you want someone to understand your problems, go with the one who knows from experience the most about how you live.   Obama has talked a lot about his economic plans, but  you honestly don't think he's getting the message through.  Any suggestions?

    "The only thing we have to fear - is fear itself." - Franklin Delano Roosevelt

    by orrg1 on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:05:21 PM PDT

    •  agreed, and I think the diarist is... (0+ / 0-)

      making a good point that this should be addressed by Obama more often.  

      The tide will be turned as voters get to know Obama.  

      I find it interesting that Clinton supporters are less likely to vote for Obama in the fall, but remember that in the South a black candidate is still going to struggle with the white vote...a sad reality.  

      Every war when it comes, or before it comes, is represented not as a war but as an act of self-defense against a homicidal maniac. -Orwell

      by Fight or Die on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:09:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think Obama can carry OH & PA (0+ / 0-)

        WV is probably a lost cause.

        I think he can do well among blue-collar and Appalachian voters if he can connect with them the way he has with his base.  These voters are angry and they are cynical.  They want concrete results and they want a fighter.

        Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

        by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:14:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Obama has reached beyond his base (0+ / 0-)

          This was part of the reason why he won such a crushing victory in Virginia, for instance. But I do think he needs to make a JFK-style appeal to people in Appalachia and reach out. It's pretty clear that Obama does better, the more people see of him. He has lost narrowly in states that he was supposed to get blown out in and he's won by larger margins than expected in states where he was ahead and then pressed his advantage.

    •  He needs to sound like a fighter. (0+ / 0-)

      People are really suffering here.  Edwards really tapped into that well.  The blue collar workers where I come from want a fighter, an advocate.

      Obama is really good at getting people excited.  I know that he can do this.  I don't know that he can do it without losing the "new politics" theme, though.  

      I've heard him speak and he is very appealing.  What he needs to work on, I think, is empathy.  Make the voters feel that he really understands them and wants to help them.  Right now, Hillary is casting herself as a fighter and it's working.  It's even resonating among voters who resent her husband over GATT and NAFTA.

      The people you are talking about put Bush in office. He has no clue, just like his Dad who never saw a grocery scanner. He's amazed at how high gas prices have gotten. The voters you talk about should link the situation now with their votes then. Their lives would have been a lot better if they had gone ahead and voted for Gore, and that's regardless of the fact that Bush helped with steel tariffs.

      A lot of voters where I live haven't forgotten the fact the Bush, not the Democrats, saved the steel industry.   My father and I discussed that irony just a few days ago and he reiterated his disgust for Al Gore.  My father was a low-level union officer and a life-long Democrat.  He won't tell me how he voted in 2004, so I'm assuming he went for Bush, in appreciation for saving his job and his pension.

      Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

      by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:12:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    psychodrew

    Probably knows in his bones the complex weave of economic factors affecting the lower income and middle classes better than any other candidate currently out there. And I agree, he is not articulating it well. Maybe he (erroneously) assumes that it his awareness is a "known known". Maybe he doesn't know how to talk to the "guys at the local diner". Whatever - he needs to work on this issue.

    "Sir, you are giving a reason for it; but that will not make it right." Samuel Johnson

    by Catte Nappe on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:13:30 PM PDT

    •  I read that he actually worked (0+ / 0-)

      with industrial workers in Illinois who lost their jobs.  He clearly knows the issue.

      Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

      by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:26:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nice diary, psychodrew (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AnnieM, psychodrew

    I saw those Mississippi numbers this morning, about whether one candidate's supporters would support the other, and thought they should be diaried. Of course, it's way too early to tell what people would do, but the trend is interesting.

    (BTW, I support Obama and am, according to a commentor yesterday, a cultist and a misogynist, so take my opinion with a grain of salt.)

    •  Thank you. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cadejo4

      You're not a cultist and I mentioned in diary last week that I felt that such talk was inappropriate.

      I have very close friends, highly educated and intelligent, who are supporting Barack Obama.  He is a great candidate and would be a wonderful president.  I'm just partial to Hillary.

      Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality. Hillary Clinton for President

      by psychodrew on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:25:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Economic issues haven't taken a front seat... (0+ / 0-)

    ...in the primaries, so many people just don't know about Obama's platform for the economy. Economic issues would, however, come to the forefront in the GE, because there's a clear contrast between the dems and McCain in that area.

  •  Obama and his surrogates need to go after McCain (0+ / 0-)

    Hillary took him off his mark. He had started running against McCain and then got distracted with the kitchen sink...

    McCain always said he was going to run on the economy and THIS would be a good time for Obama to start having that fight. Knock Johnny down, you'll knock down his good friend Hillary too.

    Hell, Obama's the only one who seems able to manage his money!

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