I compiled this breakdown a few days ago, but put it out today after seeing Al Giordano's numbers. And reading it...it's nice to know what the ceiling is for Senator Clinton. For +26 to happen, not only would there have to be zero tightening in the race, but Sen. Clinton would have to post 70-30 wins in districts like the 3rd, 11th, 12th and 18th districts and grab more than 62.5 percent in the 4-delegate districts.
Is it possible? Read below to find out.
1st District: Philadelphia -- 7 delegates -- Start off with a safe district for Sen. Obama. With more than 45% of the district being black, the question is whether Obama will pull in enough to get enough to hit the 64.3% necessary to get a 5-2 split. I'm going to give the Rendell machine a little credit and say that they manage to hold this to a 4-3 advantage for Obama, but this is a place where we could see a 3-delegate advantage. 4-3 split, Obama +1.
2nd District: Philadelphia -- 9 delegates -- In an area that is more than 60% AA, Senator Obama will pull in enough support to make this a 6-3 split. If he can hit the 72-73%, it could go 7-2, but Gov. Rendell's influence in the area should be enough to keep this to Obama +3.
3rd District: Erie and Northwest PA -- 5 delegates -- This should be one of Sen. Clinton's stronger areas, but it takes 70% to get a 4-1 split. In Ohio, Sen. Clinton managed to grab 64-67% of the vote in Ashtabula, Trumbull and Mahoning counties, right across the border from this PA district. I can't find a way for her to grab the extra 5 percent she needs. This one is locked at 3-2 for Clinton, Clinton +1.
4th District: North of Pittsburgh -- 5 delegates -- Not much to see here. Clinton should win this area easily, but once again, in one of her stronger areas, there's just no way she hits that 70% figure. 3-2 Clinton, Clinton +1
5th District: North Rural PA + Penn State -- 4 delegates -- This one is interesting in my mind. I have little doubt that Sen. Clinton will carry the district, but big turnout from Penn State could keep her from hitting the 62.5% she needs for the 3-1 split. Expect to see Sen. Obama at a few frat parties in State College, trying to keep this one 2-2. If the election was today, I'd say she hits the magic number and gets the 3-1 advantage. Clinton +2.
6th District: Northwest Philly -- 6 delegates -- Traditional blue-collar Democrats mix with wealthy suburbs of Philly. The result: a 3-3 split, but you only need to hit 58.33% to reach a 4-2 advantage. No Gain.
7th District: Philly Suburbs -- 7 delegates -- Another mixed district. Working class households and the endorsement of Rep. Sestak will give Hillary the edge here, and the wealthier suburbs will give Sen. Obama a good showing. This feels like a 4-3 split for Clinton, Clinton +1.
8th District: Bucks County -- 7 delegates -- Rep. Patrick Murphy has been strongly behind Sen. Obama, and that may be enough to tip this close district in his favor. The strong working class background puts this one in Senator Clinton's column right now, but this one could be a real fight. Clinton +1.
9th District: Altoona and South Central PA -- 3 delegates -- 1 medium-sized city, but a large rural area. Senator Clinton wins, but still gets just a 1 delegate advantage. Clinton +1.
10th District: NE PA -- 4 delegates -- Another area where Sen. Clinton should do very well. Shares a border with NY, a lot of rural voters, and a lot of working class voters. I think she gets more than 62.5%, and that gets a 3-1 split, but Sen. Obama can close the gap here and hold this to a 2-2 split with some strong groundwork. Clinton +2.
11th District: Scranton and Wilkes-Barre -- 5 delegates -- A more urban version of the 10th district, Sen. Obama will do better here than up north, but still, Sen. Clinton should win this district and with it a 3-2 split. Clinton +1.
12th District: The Gerrymandered South-Central-West -- 5 delegates -- My home district is Clinton country but with a few qualifiers. First, there are a few college campuses drawn into this area, so there are definitely pockets where Obama can do well. Another big question mark is Rep. Murtha, a free agent super-delegate. Talk about the Rendell machine all you want, but if Rep. Murtha came out for either candidate, it could swing quite a few votes, especially in the eastern portion of the district. Still, this is one of the poorer areas of the state, and as such it should be a Clinton win. As it stands now, this is a 3-2 split for the Senator from New York Clinton +1.
13th District: Montgomery County -- 7 delegates -- Mont Co. is one of the weathiest counties in the country, with a median household income of more than $60K. Expect the war in Iraq to be a much bigger concern here than the economy. In the end, Obama gets enough to pick up an extra delegate. 4-3 split, Obama +1.
14th District: Pittsburgh area -- 7 delegates -- This is a swing district in my mind. Does Obama win another urban area, especially one that is trending away from it's blue collar origins? Does Clinton win on the back of working class voters that carried her in Ohio? The area has slightly more than 20 percent AA population, and in the end, I think that might be enough to put Sen. Obama over the top. 4-3 split, Obama +1.
15th District: Allentown, Bethlehem -- 5 delegates -- Yet another district where I expect Sen. Clinton to have an advantage due to the underlying demographics. She should do well enough with blue-collar voters to pick up the win. 3-2 split, Clinton +1.
16th District: Lancaster -- 4 delegates -- The eastern parts of the district are suburban Philly, the western parts stretch out to where there are more cows than people. Can Hillary hit 62.5% for a 3-1 split? My magic 8 ball says "Signs point to no." No Gain.
17th District: Harrisburg and Parts East -- 4 delegates -- Once again, the question is whether Clinton can get a 3-1 split. That's a lot to ask for in a district with so many medium-sized locales. No Gain.
18th District: Southern Pittsburgh Suburbs -- 5 delegates -- Sen. Obama will do surprisingly well in the Pittsburgh suburbs, and he might even do on the Route 30 corridor through Greensburgh and Ligonier. But Sen. Clinton should pile up big margins in the rural areas west of I-79. 3-2 split, Clinton +1
19th District: York, Gettysburg -- 4 delegates -- Feels just like the 17th district to me; should be a Clinton win, but not by enough to get a bonus delegate. No Gain.
District Level Delegate Summary: Clinton 55, Obama 48
District Level Delegate Margin: Clinton +7
PLEO and At Large Delegates: Putting the race right now at a 10 point margin, the split would be 11-9 Clinton in PLEO, and 19-16 in At Large delegates.
PLEO Summary: 30-25 Clinton
Margin: Clinton +5
Overall: Clinton 85, Obama 73
Overall: Clinton +12
Summary: My guesstimating ends up with a 12 delegate edge for Clinton, but there are definitely some areas where the delegate count could fluctuate.
All of the 4-delegate districts are in areas that Sen. Clinton should do well, but the question is whether she can hit the 62.5% she needs to get the 3-1 split. Right now, I have her making the cutoff in 2 districts and missing the mark in the other 3.
The 1st district is the one where I have most likely understated Sen. Obama's support. With a 5-2 split a distinct possibility. Some reports from on the ground in the upcoming weeks will definitely give us a better picture.
Another area to watch is the 6th district, which I pegged at 3-3 but requires little swing to hit a 4-2 margin. All of the Philly districts should see a heavy dose of both candidates and the delegate count could swing with the 1st, 2nd, 6th, 7th, and 8th all capable of seeing a delegate shift.
Note:
I hope a few more people look at the numbers so we can compare notes and see where we disagree. After doing this review of the districts as my first diary, I'm looking forward to doing an update after getting more input from the ground, incorporating some polling data, and looking deeper into the demographics, hopefully factoring in education level and income level in some of these tighter districts.