Hey Kossacks,
First, a shameless plug for yours truly: I've been profiled in PC World's recent feature called "Meet the Whiz Kids: 10 Overachievers Under 21", which is also now available on ABC News' website. You can read the article here.
Now, onto the topic of this diary, which I have not seen mentioned here over the last 24 hours or so. Yesterday (Saturday in Iran, Friday in the USA) was Election Day in Iran for that country's Parliament.
Go below the fold for background on Iranian politics, what's at stake and things to look for in the election.
As we all know, Iran has been a hot topic in international affairs ever since President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected in 2005 over a more moderate candidate. International tension caused by personal and political animosity between Ahmadinejad and President Bush, whether it be over nuclear capability, Israel or the Iraq occupation, have also carried over into internal tension in Iran itself.
(Note: I've placed the background information in blockquote so that you, the reader can scroll down to the 2008 election if you already know the information)
First, a basic primer to Iran's current political status, and why yesterday's parliamentary elections matter:
There are multiple parties currently active in Iranian politics. They are usually separated by different strengths in different regions, as well as by their interpretation of the tenants of Islam and the role of Islam in modern Iranian society.
Modern Iranian government began with the Iranian Revolution in 1979, which threw the corrupt Shah Pahlavi from power and put the Ayatollah Khomeini in his place. While the course of Iran's foreign policy is well-known (the Hostage Crisis of '79-81 and Iran-Contra for starters), Khomeini's implementation of Islamic law, which resulted in far greater social control in Iran than under the Shah, did not extend to the electoral system. The 1979 Constitution created several branches of government, with the Ayatollah as "Supreme Leader", but who delegates much of his power to the twelve "Council of Guardians" and to an elected President. The President is elected every four years by popular vote under universal suffrage laws; so too is the Parliament (or "Majli" of Iran, as it is called there), a year before the Presidential race.
The Parliament as well as the President have checks on their power. While the Parliament has the sole authority to make laws, approve international treaties and the national budget, and also to appoint 6 of the 12 members of the Council of Guardians, its legislation must meet the approval of the Council for them to become law. The Council can veto Parliamentary legislation if they feel that legislation violates the Constitution or Islamic law, whereupon the legislation is sent back to Parliament for revision. The President, meanwhile acts as the executive branch, appointing a cabinet and suggesting policies for the legislature to consider. The Iranian President, however does not have authority over Iran's armed forces - that is under the explicit control of the Supreme Leader. Therefore, if Ahmadinejad wanted to send the Revolutionary Guard into Iraq or bomb Israel, he would first have to navigate numerous obstacles in the different branches of government, including his superior.
The most glaring difference between Iran and the United States, however is that all candidates for office (from President on down) must first meet the approval of the Council of Guardians (who are themselves elected to office every eight years by the voters). The Council in theory is allowed to disqualify any potential candidate if they are found to be insufficiently loyal to the 1979 Revolution and its tenets. While in previous election cycles the Council has been largely impartial (resulting in a moderate, reform-oriented government in the 1990s and early 2000s), the recent wave of anti-Western sentiment that began in 2003 led to the Council disqualifying moderate Parliamentary candidates by the dozens in 2004. As a result, Parliament shifted to traditionally far-right membership (whose leaders adhere to a strict interpretation of Islam), which paved the way for Ahmadinejad to win in the 2005 runoff on the support of the Parliament.
This brings us to 2008, and to yesterday's elections. Once again, the Council of Guardians disqualified numerous moderate Parliamentary candidates, including the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini (he is not to be confused with the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khameini). This does not mean, however that Ahmadinejad's party, the "United Front of Principlists" (i.e. that they adhere to the Revolution's credos) is certain to dominate the Parliament once again.
This is because there is a schism in the conservative ranks in Iran. Ahmadinejad has proven to be a controversial President both in and outside of Iran, and the economic boycott of Iran has badly hurt its economy (Iran currently has 19% inflation!). In addition, the continued confrontation with the United States and its allies over its nuclear intentions has frightened many Iranians, including traditional conservatives in the country. This was noticeable in the local elections in 2007, where a coalition of moderates and anti-Ahmadinejad conservatives clobbered the President's supporters (local elections are not controlled by the Council of Guardians, henceforth they are a much stronger indication of popular sentiment). These conservatives are led by Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who is considered to be a likely candidate for President in 2009 against Ahmadinejad.
The returns are only now beginning to come in for the Parliamentary elections, but I can at least project some possible outcomes based on what I know right now:
The "reform" bloc currently has 40 seats in the Parliament, out of 290 in total; their candidates are on the ballot in only about half of the districts, thanks to having over 1,000 moderates disqualified by the Council. If the reformers hold their ground, or even emerge with a few gains, it will be a tremendous showing for them.
The anti-Ahmadinejad conservatives have many more candidates on the ballot, and therefore pose a more significant threat to the Iranian President. Already it appears that one major critic, Ali Larijani, who resigned as Iran's chief nuclear negotiator in protest of Ahmadinejad's policies has won a seat in Qom, which according to CNN is Iran's major religious center. Should this Parliamentary bloc win significant support elsewhere - say, 50 to 75 seats - it would also be a powerful rebuke to the President.
The estimated final turnout (according to Iran's offical press, IRNA) will be between 55-65% of the country's 44 million voters. This is a significant improvement over the 51% turnout in 2004, which led to the electoral landslide for the UFP (Ahmadinejad's party). Indeed, CNN is reporting that many reform-minded Iranian voters made up their minds in the end to vote, despite losing many of their candidates via the Council of Guardians. One quote in particular caught my attention:
" In the end, Hesam Javadi, a 30-year-old computer technician, voted.
'We can't stop the rain,' he said after casting his ballot for reformists at a north Tehran polling station. 'But we can at least put an umbrella over our heads in self-defense.'"
CNN Article via the AP
The courage of Mr. Javadi and what appears to be so many more of his fellow Iranians in defying the mandates of the party in power and voting for candidates up against tremendous odds is inspiring. The flame of democracy can never be snuffed out when the candle-holders insist on keeping it alight.
It remains to be seen how large Ahmadinejad's Parliamentary support will be (the results will probably take several days before all the votes have been tabulated), and whether that Parliament will serve as a help or a hindrance to the Iranian President as he seeks reelection in 2009. However it turns out, however, we Kossacks and we as Americans should pay close attention to the outcome, and to the course of Iranian politics down the road.
After all, somebody in America has to be impartial about that country, since our current President certainly isn't.
Links for more information (including the links from which I drew the information for this article):
Hardliners Surge Ahead In Iranian Vote (a bit misleading)
Iran's Elections Free and Fair (Reformist leader's statement)
Article from China with slightly updated results
Iranian Reformists pleased with initial results
Information on Iran's government via Wikipedia