At the risk of walking on the grounds of cliche, the Wright story concerns me. It concerns me because I prefer winning in Pennsylvania. I know that anything short of a victory in Pennsylvania drags this race out farther.
Let's be real on that matter
a) Hillary Clinton will not stop after Pennsylvania if she wins.
b) Hillary Clinton will not be shoved out of her candidacy if she has won Pennsylvania decisively.
c) Losing momentum or having mixed results does not make things better for Obama's candidacy.
Now, there's more under the fold (for the 10 people who read this on the recent diaries page)
Barack Obama does not win more votes when he has to go on the defense.
According to polling, Clinton is supported by a majority in California. 51% (Rasmussen) and 55% (SurveyUSA). Even outfits which claim to be pollsters like ARG have Clinton over 50%. The last poll to have Obama within 10 points of Clinton in Pennsylvania was Quinnipiac in late February.
Clinton had two polls in 2008 putting her over 50% in California. She never polled this strongly in Texas. Only her polling in Ohio is similar to the polling in Pennsylvania. Where she was up by 10 in the weeks before the election and won by 10.
So let's go through some areas of concern.
#1) Distraction
Barack Obama's problem is the impression that he's "soft" on the issues of the economy and health care. So how much time does he get to focus on those issues when he's having to go on the defensive about Wright? Oh, that's right, no time at all. Basically the whole idea of Obama's lack of substance on the economy/health care has more time to sink in. With more economic thunder occuring recently, that's not going away. Obama needs to take the stuff he puts in pdf files on his site and put them on the air in Pennsylvania. He won't win unless he goes hard on the issues of the economy and health care. You don't beat a flawed set of plans with no plans.
#2) Running out the clock
You can win a Basketball game by doing this. You cannot win a political campaign by doing this. How much momentum do you expect someone to get after having to go through a contentious convention because they kept losing the bigger primaries? As well, most American voters will not care how the vote goes down in Denver unless something truly ridiculous happens. It's a sign of political narcissism to think that there'll be a wide voter backlash over who wins in Denver. It's the same sort of sign to think that Michigan and Florida will be influenced by how the DNC handles them. Anything short of the FL/MI state parties stabbing the nominee in the back will produce no effect on the results.
Also, 187 is a lot more than 134. Pennsylvania cannot be negated by North Carolina.
#3) The Gotcha Game
It's stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid. How is Barack Obama helped by this sort of thing? I'd imagine he'd be helped out a lot more by going on the offensive on issues involving the economy and health care than by having surrogates and supporters try to get rebounds by bringing up McCain's own ties. Yes, McCain is tied to some pretty conservative Christian leaders. That's sort of like saying that a lifeguard has links to water. How about getting momentum back and trying to undo damage in the current race, instead of trying the game of "But he's worrrrsseee!" against McCain. Especially when you consider that none of McCain's thorns were pastor's in his church for over 15 years.
#4) Misc. Concerns
Sure, it's not a good sign that Obama had known of controversies when starting his campaign, and he put Wright on a campaign committee. Had there been nothing to 'dismiss' Wright from, then there would be a smaller controversy. As to the believability of his claims, they're reasonable enough. Although we're in for another bad cycle of punditry if someone finds the "attendance sheets".
I was not impressed by the Obama statements on this matter. I prefer getting this off of the news as quickly as possible. I don't care as to the reality of Wright's comments, that stuff can be covered at some time when there's not an important campaign underway.
It doesn't win Obama any new votes to have to keep answering questions on this topic.
You cannot win unless you win. You cannot be the champion without defeating the top contenders. This isn't the time to run out the clock. To end this race now, a win in Pennsylvania is the best route.
I voted for Barack Obama. But, I'm not going to just clap louder and think that this will end quickly without him getting on his horse, going on offense, and winning in Pennsylvania.
Barack Obama is not made of teflon. He does not make flowers bloom by staring at the ground. He doesn't help in every congressional district (just most of them). He's the best candidate we have right now. But he cannot win without winning.
It's time for them to get off of defense and to go back on offense.