This diary is entirely my own opinion, I have no inside information, but I believe, looking at a series of recent events (outlined below) that Obama will seal the nomination in the next two weeks. How will he do it? With an overwhelming out pouring of vocal support from senior people in the party.
Here's why I think this is happening
First, there as many people here have noted, there has been a shift in statements from the party leaders, specifically Pelosi, in the last few days to weeks.
March 2, 2008, Richardson says
"Whoever has the most delegates after Tuesday should be the nominee."
but since the Texas and Ohio primaries we have heard nothing from him. Some have taken this as a statement that he feels HIllary is still in the race, despite Barack having more delegates (and actually winning the delegate count in Texas). I am not so sure, I think he has been asked to hold off endorsing.
March 14, Pelosi says
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told ABC News' George Stephanopoulos on Friday that it would be "harmful" to Democrats if superdelegates were to give the party's presidential nomination to a candidate who is trailing in the delegates awarded in primaries and caucuses.
"If the votes of the superdelegates overturn what's happened in the elections," said Pelosi, "it would be harmful to the Democratic Party."
Of course you have multiple statements on CNN by superdelegate Donna Brazil saying she will leave the party
"If 795 of my colleagues decide this election, I will quit the Democratic Party. I feel very strongly about this," Brazile said.
.
March 13, Obama mentions he recently spoke with Gore
“The last time I talked to Al Gore was last week,” Senator Barack Obama said today, speaking to reporters as he flew from Chicago to Washington.
That morsel of information was buried near the end of a question-and-answer session. Asked if he would divulge what they talked about, Mr. Obama smiled and simply said, “No.”
Combine these items with the fact that, just in the past few days, there has been a torrent of Obama "bad news" and what I would consider clean up. Most notably with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright (see multiple stories on this one all over). The information about these sermons has been out there for quite a while, yet for some reason, they really came to the front this week. This has lead to Obama purging the minister from the campaign and going on to speak about race and religion in his life and America. Obama has also gone to both the Chicago Tribune and Chicage Sun Times to "vet" the Rezko "scandal" answering all questions thrown at him. See the excellent diary by Yalin which covers both the shift in Obama's speech and the Rezko clean up.
Obama also released all of his earmark requests this week.
Finally, Obama has not (and I live here) been putting much emphasis on PA. Unlike Hillary who I saw marching in the Pittsburgh St. Patty's day parade yesterday.
Here is my take on these recent events:
Individuals who are influential in the democratic party are not stupid, they understand that a protracted fight, which is increasingly bitter, will drive up both Hillary's and Barack's negatives and allow McCain a reprieve for fundraising (see how little was made of McCain's aides lobbying for airbus, which was a slam dunk for the dems). They also understand that the fight is fracturing the party, with more and more people in each camp saying they will not vote for the other in the general. This is particularly true in the African American community if it is perceived that Clinton took the nomination from Obama when he was leading in the pledged delegates and states won (a near certainty), even if she manages to sneak out a lead in the popular vote. All of this in a year which, by all measures, should be a Dem victory in November.No matter how you do the math, Obama will lead in pledged delegates in the end. He will also lead in states won, and possibly in the popular vote.
Obama decided, likely in consultation with senior party leaders, that he should put out all the potentially damaging information now, giving it a few news cycles (or weeks) to cool down. In the next few weeks I predict we will see a large number of very senior people strongly endorsing Obama. We have all heard about the 50 super delegates the Obama camp was supposed to have but have not materialized (although the original Brokaw report has been confirmed).
My sense is that the Obama campaign has been playing this smart - they know they will not win PA, but if they have a flood of superdelegates, the press will begin to ask the question "how is it possible for Hillary to win" and then the PA results become irrelevant, particularly if he has enough superdelegates to get over 2025.
Once the floodgates open, the press will begin to describe Obama as the nominee and paint Hillary more in the role of party spoiler. No one wants to alienate her supporters in this way, so the extended time between now and PA allows for Hillary to tone down her campaign and slowly wrap it up, as she sees the writing on the wall.
Finally, I believe that Edwards will be one of those who endorses Obama in the next few weeks - he has been asked to hold off for just this moment.
The Obama campaign has been run smart from the beginning and I see no reason to think this have changed.