Introduction.
There are a few names for potential VP that are on the short list of many prognosticators . Now that Bill Richardson has endorsed Barack Obama, there will be many detailed diaries on this sight for various potentail running mates. I believe that, by far, the best choice would be Bill Richardson. The first draft of this diary was started on March 6, 2008. At that time, I felt that a diary of this type should wait. I believed the events leading up to and including the election results on March 4th were only the beginning of Barack Obama demonstrating how he can "fight back", that he be able to answer the question on whether he was tough enough to take on the right wing smear machine. The HRC kitchen sink strategy was in motion before the 4th and I, as with others, wondered how effectively Obama would respond. Rachel Maddow, used to repeatedly state the fear he "would be like a bunny in front of a snow plow" (I haven't heard her express this fear in weeks). The media narrative can only relay on the math v. momentum story for a short time. They were already bored with it by Super Tuesday. WY and MO gave a respite, but the table was set for a new story line. The Wright smear campaign then came along.
Despite my usually cynical outlook on our political discourse, I was surprised by the scope and ferocity of the personal assault on Obama. They not only went him, but his wife and pastor, stoking racial resentment in an attempt to portray him as the black candidate while not doing so directly. His negatives have gone up substantially in recent polling. Fortuneately, his opponents, within the party and outside the party, underestimated him. His incredible speeches on race and foreign policy have put many potential supporters fears to rest while reframing the issues. Now, with a long gap to PA, and the media faced with the prospect of rehashing math v. momentum for a month, VP choices can come to the forefront. The Richardson announcment is fantastic. Barack Obama can dominate the next few news cycle with the combined VP/speech narrative. I think that the MSM is going to run with this. See this comment from hankg Here which I will partially quote below (note - I disagree with the first paragraph of the comment) .
For me the much bigger story is here is Bill Clinton's UN ambassador and a member of the President Clinton's Cabinet and National Security Council. Ambassador Richardson worked to free hostages and prisoners from Croatia, Burma, Cuba, Iraq, North Korea and Sudan, and negotiated the peaceful transfer of power in the former Zaire, now the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
One of the Clinton administrations most prominent international troubleshooters and he is choosing Obama as the best choice for President and Commander in Chief despite what must have been some incredible pressure from his former boss. That's the big story to me.
We now have a narrative to last for the remainder of the month and beyond. Now we have to decide, is Richardson the right choice. I have always been a big fan of Richardsons. He is smart, progressive and respected. He may not have always come across as particulary telegenic or inspirational. But Barack Obama does not need help on these fronts. The assistance that Richardson provides is shoring up his foreign policy credentials (even more so after Powers stepped aside) and to reinforce and expand his message of change there. Barack needs help to set aside divise talk of a brack/brown devide that will hinder his abilility to win in Florida, Texas, and a multitude of states across the country and recast it as a broad movement that crosses multiple racial lines.
I thought Bill Clinton made an incredibly smart move naming Al Gore as his running mate. He broke the tradition of going for some type of diversity in a running mate, which during prior decades had meant geographic diversity or someone from another wing of the party (Kennedy/Johnson, Eisenhower/Nixon, Instead, he selected another young, southern male which accentuated these attributes and the message of change i.e. "another generation stepping up to the leadership position." The image of Bill and Al on the cover of Time Magazine resonated for the entire campaign. Anecdotally, alot of people voted for this dynamic duo as a result of the image of youth, hope, and a yearning for change. Obama, to a great extent has run his campaign on a similar message. You can do to things in picking a vice presidential candidate, shore up your perceived weaknesses, or reinforce your strenghs. I favor the latter.
Now, I recognize the attractiveness of a Jim Webb or a Kathleen Sebelius. But I don't want a VP that reduces our hold on the Senate or can be used to reinforce the "lack of experience" mantra to be repeated by McCain for the next six months. Bill Clinton choice a running mate that reinforced his positive attributes. Barack Obama should do the same.
There are also several reasons for floating the VP choice early, before PA. One is the narrative. As Pocket Nines explained so clearly here
Math Milkshake Diary the only way that Obama can lose the nomination is if HRC makes him appear to be unelectable. Kos has also provided several concise front page diaries on this issue. The math alone shows that this race is over (it has been for weeks) and, absent a complete meltdown or disaster (live boy/ dead girl scandel) Barack will be the nominee. The Wright imbroglio had the potential to turn into such a disaster, but Obama neutralized it.
Now we can move on to the next stage. This is a simple argument. Richardson will enforce the most positive aspects of the Obama campaign, while shoring up a perceived weakness. My argument depends on a few premises.
- People tend to vote for people who they can identify with. HRC does much better with older women, Barack with African Americans.
- Obama support in the Hispanic community has lagged.
- Obama has a perceived weakness in foreign policy "experience" (and yes, I agree that judgment is more important - the Presidency has to be learned, no one is "ready on day one")
Hispanics are the largest ethnic group in America. A good summary and compilation of Census statistics can be found HERE If Barack can motivate the hispanic community as he has Governor Richardson, the GE would be a blowout. Even early polling date show that HRC and Obama win differently in the GE. See these diaries Ciphorgoth visual aide 3/6 SUSA polls Also this one Electoral Vote Map
Obama has already brought new and young voters into the process in record numbers. If the Hispanic community joined in the same percentages, the result would be overwhelming.
Richardson would reinforce the Change mantra. A brown face in the white house as VP and the heir apparent to the presidence would certainly be noticed at home and around the globe. How many countries believe the US treats Mexicans and other hispanics ans second class citizens, mere braceros?. Also, like Obama, Richardson's close family extends across national borders
Richardson would also shore up the perceived weakness on foreign policy experience. As a former cabinet member and international trouble shooter, Richardson is one of the most respected diplomats this country has had in the past 20 years. I liked this diary Here
Remember last year when he negotiated with the North Koreans over their nuclear warhead facility. Even Bush has had to depend on Richardson.
I want you all to imagine a new Time Magazine cover with profiles of Barack and Bill on the front page with the caption (the new faces of America). Next, see the commercials being run on spanish stations across the country, with Bill Richardson saying Si, se puede. Finally, imagine the swearing in ceremony in January 2009, with the Obamas and the Richardsons together. If you get an emotional charge out of picturing these things, I'm right.
Lets Hope.