Clintons....How Obama Beat the Clintons
When the history of the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nominating contest is written, the numbers more than anything else will tell the tale. I took the numbers and divided them up between primaries and caucuses and examine how many delegates each gained from each format.
PRIMARIES vs. CAUCUSES
27 Primaries
Clinton 1039 delegates 50.26% of del.
Obama 1028 delegates 49.73% of del.
18 Caucuses
Obama 390 delegates 65% of del.
Clinton 212 delegates 35% of del.
In just the 27 primary contests Clinton garnered a tiny +11 delegate lead, while in the 18 caucus contests Obama won a whopping +178 delegate advantage. That was the whole ball game right there.
Some would say that some of those caucus margins for Obama would have been smaller had they been strictly primaries, perhaps this is true but he would have still clobbered her by a huge margin. And if you look at a small state like Utah which held a PRIMARY on Super Tuesday Obama won overwhelmingly 57% to 39% (Edwards 3%). Utah is a small predominantly white state with much of the same demographics as many of the caucus states that went overwhelmingly for Obama--Wyoming, Alaska, North Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Idaho. It is doubtful he would have garnered less than 57% if any of these states had held primaries.
The caucuses worked against Obama in a very important matter--popular vote total. Though he handily defeated Clinton in states like Washington and Minnesota which held caucuses, if those had been primaries perhaps his delegate totals may have three or four less, BUT he would have had those whopping popular vote totals from these two states added to his overall popular vote.
Finally, the nominating system is a game that must be mastered. It dictates strategy. Obama mastered it, Clinton didn't. The proportional delegate system is exactly why Obama left California on February 1, (four days before Super Tuesday) to go to Boise, Idaho and then Wilmington, Delaware. Game, set and match.