Two new polls are out today from Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling that are good signs for Obama in the upcoming primaries in PA and NC.
First let’s talk about PA. In the new Rasmussen poll, Hillary is up by 10 points, 49-39. Although the poll doesn’t show huge movement from last Rasmussen poll, it is still very important. Have a look at the difference in the same poll from March 12th, just before the outbreak of the Wright controversy, and the poll taken yesterday...
Even with the thousands of times that Wright’s comments have been played over and over and over again on cable television, Obama has actually closed in on Hillary by 3 points in the last week and a half.
Now let’s talk about NC. In the new PPP poll, Obama has dramatically extended his lead to 21 points. The last PPP poll taken of the state was on March 17th, the day before Obama’s speech on race and at the height of the controversy over Wright. Have a look at the difference between then and now...
Obama has been uninjured by the controversy in PA and has recovered completely in NC, even expanding his early lead. He hasn’t gotten his statistically significant lead back in either the Rasmussen or Gallup daily tracking polls yet to be completely fair, but those seem largely irrelevant at this point considering that the popular vote has been 50-47 for Obama thus far. As long as the national numbers are close, it doesn’t really matter.
Survey USA came out with some general election polls recently that showed Obama getting weaker in MA, WI, MN, KY, AL, and OH due to the Wright controversy. Those polls, however, were all taken on the 19th and 20th, just one or two days after Obama’s speech on race. I suspect that as polls continue to come out now that many people have had a chance to reflect on the speech and the controversy, we will see Obama beginning to recover in those polls somewhat, just as he has in NC and PA. The speech has now been viewed on YouTube almost 4,000,000 times and it is over 37 minutes long.
Bottom line: the Wright Controvery has not hurt Obama in PA, or NC. His lead has ballooned in the NC PPP poll and he continues to close to the gap on Hillary in the PA Rasmussen poll, despite Wright.