Pennsylvania Election and Polling Experts Terry Madonna and Michael Young lay out the template for an Obama victory in Pennsylvania in today's Allentown Morning Call. Madonna and Young are viewed in Pennsylvania as fair, non-partisan and independent. In the article, Madonna and Young observe:
Clinton's advantages in Pennsylvania are substantial. Many of the state's demographics (seniors, Catholics, working class, conservatives and ethnics) fit well into the coalition she has pasted together in earlier states. Moreover, Clinton has personal ties and family roots in the state that will reinforce her favorable political fundamentals.
Nevertheless, a strong case can be made for the scenario in which Obama wins the state outright or at least holds down her margins so that a nominal win for her will be perceived as a virtual loss.
Madonna and Young point to current Governor Ed Rendell's strategy for victory over Robert Casey Jr., in the democratic gubenatorial primary of 2002 as a viable route, not just to keeping a loss close, but for Obama to win the Pennsylvania primary. Rendell, now the head of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party and perceived here as more moderate now than liberal and as the embodiment of the Pennsylvania democratic establishment, has endorsed Hillary Clinton, and is very actively campaigning in Pennsylvania and nationally on her behalf.
Ironically Obama's keys to victory were first fashioned by electoral locksmith and current Gov. Ed Rendell, chief Clinton's chief surrogate in Pennsylvania, during his own 2002 primary fight for the governorship. That 2002 gubernatorial primary with then state Auditor General Bob Casey presents a blueprint for Obama to run against Clinton.
The 2002 gubernatorial slugfest pitted the son and heir apparent of the former Gov. Casey against the liberal, urban, upstart Rendell. Casey (Clinton) was the prohibitive favorite with deep roots in state politics, a political brand name second to none in Pennsylvania with widespread party establishment support. Rendell (Obama) was a politician of uncertain outline to a majority of voters, a brash upstart from a city many Pennsylvanians regarded as the citadel of sin and corruption.
Contrary to expectations, Rendell won impressively, beating Casey by some 150,000 votes. If Obama is going to beat Clinton in Pennsylvania, he must follow closely the three keys of the Rendell's 2002 electoral roadmap:
Check out the roadmap here: Allentown Morning Call: "Lehigh Valley, Southeast could help Obama win."
It must be noted that Bob Casey Jr. went on to take Rick Santorum's sentate seat in 2006.
On a related note - In Camp Hill, Pennsylvania (suburb of Harrisburg, population ~7500), where last week, the republican Mayor Lou Thieblemont announced he was changing his registration and endorsing Obama (Camp Hill Mayor Switches Parties and Endorses Obama), reports are that volunteers registered 71 new voters on Saturday alone, at one location in the borough.