The news of the week is the growing drumbeat to get Hillary out of the race. Chris Dodd, Bill Richardson, Patrick Leahy have all pushed this argument this week. Obama joked today about the primary being like a movie that has gone on too long.
But as a hardcore Obama supporter, I must say that I am a little conflicted about whether Hillary should get out now or not. I lean towards the view that it would be best if she got soon, but I also think there are reasons why her prolonged presence is helping Obama.
And so, I have made a list of five pros and five cons to Hillary staying in the race in terms of effect on the ultimate goal of getting Barack Obama elected....
Pros:
- We're forced to build organizations in all 50 states that will help in the fall. Furthermore, Democratic registration and turnout is soaring as a result of this prolonged fight. Both PA and NC are winnable for Obama in a general and building an organization and registering new voters now will give him a head start going into the general
- Obama is getting his dirt out early. It's much better that Wright happened in March than if it had happened in October. When the Republicans try to recycle these issues in the fall, it feel like old news and have less impact.
- Hillary is forcing Obama to become a better candidate. In a perverse way, Obama surviving the kitchen sink from Hillary makes it harder to paint Obama as green and inexperienced. Whatever doesn't kill him ultimately makes him stronger.
- Obama is getting tons of free media right now while John McCain is making no news. He is being marginalized by the Hillary-Obama contest. McCain and right wing attack machine can't fully engage yet against Obama because he is not yet the nominee.
- Being behind in the head-to-heads now is a good thing for Obama because he does best when running from the underdog position. He was behind Hillary in polls through all of 2007 and he peaked at the exact right time...Iowa. Maybe like then, it is good to hang back and be behind for a while so he doesn't get all the incoming given to a frontrunner so quickly.
Cons
- The longer this goes on, the harder it will be to unify the party. The percentage of Hillary supporters who will vote for McCain is growing and their opposition to Obama could harden over time.
- Some of the kitchen sink is bound to hurt Obama and stick to him. Obama is being double-teamed by Hillary and the right wing and this is going to draw more and more blood over time.
- John McCain is able to raise and save money while Obama has to keep spending against Hillary.
- John McCain is getting a pass in the media, his gaffes are going unnoticed, and his numbers are improving.
- Obama is going to look weakened if he loses several remaining states like PA, WV, and Kentucky....and the MI/FL issues are going to hurt the perceived legitimacy of his victory and hurt him in these states in the general election.
So there are arguments on both sides....what do you think?