As November nears, I think it is important for all of us to examine the IR aspect of an Iraq withdraw. I don't think it's going to be pretty, regardless of who's in charge....
Liberals commonly advocate intervention in Darfur and Tibet for humanitarian reasons. Which, anyone with half a soul could sympathize with. Yet, there probably isn't a single one these days that advocates remaining in Iraq, despite the inevitable fact that America will leave it an utterly broken state destined to manifest into a much larger problem in the future.
By far, the most popular rationale is that we shouldn't have invaded in the first place.
Fair Enough
Bush Lied.
Fair Enough
But that doesn't change the fact that once we leave, Shia will murder Sunni, and vise versa on a massive scale.
The situation is hopeless you say.
Fair Enough
But what of the consequences of withdraw? From an IR perspective:
- Iraq will fragment with much of it coming under the Iranian umbrella.
- There will be a huge struggle for oil in the North and the South.
- Saudi will destabilize over Sunni security concerns
- Kurds will declare independence
- Turkey will become more assertive
- Oil prices will skyrocket to a level that is unbearable to the average US consumer
Would this outcome not threaten our national security?
I believe the honest answer is yes.
Yet, we largely choose to ignore the elephant in the room waiting for us in Nov. and focus on the sins of our current President.
Soon, however, it will be our elephant
And it must be dealt with carefully, for it has the potential to explode in size and scope far larger than it already is.
Yet, all I hear from our candidates is "withdraw" followed by carefully scripted ambiguity that I find quite frightening....
Has anyone really thought this through?