Let me introduce you to the first district of Mississippi:
The Fighting First of Mississippi was represented by Jamie Whitten until his retirement in 1995. Roger Wicker won it easily in 1994 and held it since then. But now it's open, and there's two contenders for the seat, and a rather simple ballot.
The Ballot for the April 22nd election reads as follows
That's all. No party designations, just names and a box to check.
So, what in the world happened, and what should we expect for this election?
The primaries and runoffs so far.
The Republican primary on 3/11 went as follows: McCullough: 38.9%, Davis: 36.8%, Russell 24.3%
The Democratic primary results from 3/11: Childers 41.5%, Holland 30.8%, Coleman 13.1%, Neely 10.6%, Hurt 4.1%
So the runoffs held on April Fool's Day were between McCullough and Davis, and between Childers and Holland.
The McCullough/Davis runoff ended up being a divide between Davis's stronghold of Southhaven (DeSoto County) and McCullough's stronghold's around Tupelo.
A map of the results from the Republican runoff election (Davis in Red, McCullough in Blue):
Davis won big in DeSoto County, which counted for 8281 of his 16830 votes.
Overall, Davis won 16,830 to 16,305. So basically his home county delivered.
But, there's a catch.
Let's take a look at the Democratic runoff map. Childers in Blue, Holland in Red.
So we see an overlap between Childers and Holland's strongholds and McCullough friendly counties.
But who are the candidates and what is the climate like
The climate
In the 1st district, Haley Barbour defeated John Arthur Eaves by a 58.6-41.4 margin (less than 1% above Barbour's statewide victory margin). Bush won the 1st by a 62-37 margin.
The candidate
Travis Childers has been the Chancery clerk of Prentiss County for the last 16 years. His site notes that "After the death of his father when Travis was 16 and still in high school, he worked nights and weekends at Booneville's first convenience store to help support his mother and sister." (a fact also mentioned in his ads) Childers is a former President of the Mississippi Chancery Clerks Association as well. (Don't ask me what a chancery clerk is, I'm not entirely sure)
Childers on the issues
Our leaders should have been thinking of the economic problems we face today when they passed unfair trade deals that sent our jobs overseas, gave billions in subsidies to big oil companies, ignored the home mortgage crisis, and kept spending as the deficit and national debt hit all time highs. Travis Childers believes that Mississippi needs to focus more on education and economic development in rural areas and small towns, not just in big cities. As congressman, Travis Childers will draw upon his economic development experience and work tirelessly to bring good-paying jobs to North Mississippi so young people do not have to leave the area to find good-paying jobs. In Washington, he will fight for balanced budgets, fair trade deals, and broad middle class tax reform . . . the right prescriptions for this economy.
(..)
Care for our seniors is a passion that Travis and his family share. It was that commitment to our seniors that led Travis, his wife Tami, and their children to use their own money to renovate the old abandoned high school building in their hometown into a badly needed, state-of-the-art assisted living facility, so seniors in their community could live out their lives close to home. As congressman, Travis will fight to protect Social Security , oppose privatization, and expand in-home care programs for seniors.
(..)
He supports expanding the State Children's Health Insurance Program (S-CHIP), which will provide affordable healthcare to tens of thousands of middle-income children in Mississippi.
The opponent
Greg Davis appears to have used the slash'n'burn politics that Republican politicans have become infamous for in his victory of Glenn McCullough.
While Steve Holland said he was for Childers "one million percent", McCullough just said that it's "time to bring the Republican family together".
Money money money
Through 3/12/2008, Childers has spent 196K and has $9K on hand. Hopefully the COH number has improved slightly (Holland was in the red in COH on 3/12). Greg Davis has spent $359K and has $44K on hand
Questions to consider in regards to this election.
#1 - Will McCullough voters pick Childers over Davis?
It's certainly possible that the Tupeloan (right term or not?) who voted for McCullough might vote for Childers (who is from a neighboring county) over Davis.
#2 - Will McCullough and Holland recieve a chunk of votes despite not campaigning?
That would figure, wouldn't it?
#3 - Will Childers benefit by being on a ballot without a partisan ID?
Yes. Childers will probably win Prentiss County easily. He will probably win a variety of Northeast Mississippi counties. That is not to demean the reputation of our party in that area, but it's helpful to be listed first on the ballot, and to just be listed as "Travis Childers"
#4 - Will Obama help in this district?
Um, probably not. But I know that will come up.
#5 - Will low turnout help?
Maybe. But why take chances on turnout when the Republican is from a larger county?
#6 - But Childers doesn't pass my lithmus test
He passes my test. He's a Democrat, he looks pretty good on issues of health care and benefits. I'd take an 85-percenter over a 3-percenter rubberstamp.
CQ rates this race as safe Republican. Because they're not in a business to gamble on these things. They pick Duke over West Virginia and Wisconsin over Davidson. I can't blame them too much. But, I think this is going to be pretty close.
So on April 22nd, there's another election, and we can shock the world there.