Here's the new poll from Insider Advantage, which is close to the outlier from yesterday (PPP) and Rasmussen.
Update:
From BennyToothpick:
Strategic Vision's new poll is Clinton 49% - Obama 41%. This is also trending similarly, with Obama up from an 18 point deficit in their last PA poll.
Let me be clear: I put as little stock in Insider Advantage's polling as most. However, given the three polls out in the last week that have the two candidates within 5 points, there is no doubt a fixed trend is occurring.
And this newest poll has some interesting data to consider:
- Clinton is showing only an 11 point lead amongst Pennsylvania women (49-38). Given the ethnic sampling, which was 81% white and 17% black, was in line with other polls, the number is worth noting.
- This is very interesting, and is either evidence that the poll is horribly unreliable or showing legitimate undecided trends. Among black voters, Obama is only up 55-29, with over 15% undecided.
Now, IA's sampling size of just over 600 is quite small. But one benefit of the poll is that it freely allows for undecided responses, and in no way directs respondents to make a choice.
Update:
Thanks to Kitty for this from Insider Advantage:
April 3, 2008 — The latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey shows Sen. Hillary Clinton clinging to a 2-point lead in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary. The telephone survey of likely registered Democratic voters, conducted April 2, has been weighted for age, race and gender. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7%. The results are:
Clinton: 45% (really 45.3)
Obama: 43% (really 42.4)
Undecided: 12%
InsiderAdvantage/Creators Syndicate’s Matt Towery: "This could be the beginning of the end of the Clinton campaign. The crosstabs show Obama trailing among white voters, but by only a 49%-40% margin. More importantly, Obama has a lead among African-American voters of 56%-29%, with the remainder undecided.
"It is almost impossible to imagine that the African-American vote will not consolidate to the levels we have seen in other states, which would put Obama closer to 70%-plus with blacks. Clinton would need a large, disproportionate turnout of white voters to have a real shot at pulling off a substantial win in the contest.
"Some of our previous polls in other states have shown a pattern of Clinton coming from polling deficits to eek out slim victories over Obama. We’ve seen this happen several times, with Clinton surging in the final week leading up to the vote.
"She will have to pull off a near-miracle to win Pennsylvania, to say nothing of her winning by a substantial margin, which she almost certainly needs to stay alive in the Democratic presidential sweepstakes," said Towery.
The Expectations Game
I also want to say a few words about the expectations game we are all playing, and the dangers on both ends.
- There are those who worry about such polls receiving attention, for fear that it will diminish motivation to work hard on Obama's behalf. To this, I say: you apparently never took a psychology class in college. Sure, sometimes a basketball team will let up after achieving a 25-point lead. And yes, sometimes CEOs get complacent after successive quarters of amazing growth and profits. But these scenarios have little to do with this campaign because a) it's still a close race, and b) Obama, as coach/CEO, won't allow such complacency to occur amongst his ranks, as we've seen time and again.
- A more legitimate fear about these polls is that they don't take into account "Operation Chaos" and the Limbaugh factor. Thus, Clinton will out-perform any poll by 5-10 points. If this is true, I understand the desire to appear down big, so that an even bigger loss doesn't look as bad. But honestly, does anyone in here want to be taking that mentality. We're playing to win, folks. Any trend should be viewed positively and taken as further motivation to widen the gap.
Any thoughts?
Call to Action:
Afraid of the expectations lag? Do the following:
+ Call undecided voters in Pennsylvania.
+ Call voters in Indiana and register them before April 7.