I don't have much background about the Diageo/The Hotline outfit, but they've been a favorite over at MYDD because it consistently reports HRC as leading, until now, that is:
Table 1: Primary Vote Among Democratic Primary Voters:
Dec. Jan. Feb. March
Barack Obama 30% 35% 43% 50%
Hillary Clinton 35% 38% 45% 38%
Her lowest showing ever. More details under the glyph ~~~
Clinton loses the contest for who is attacking the other unfairly, no surprises here:
Yes, Has Been Attacking No Has Not Been Attacking
Opponent Unfairly. Opponent Unfairly.
Hillary Clinton 49% 41%
Barack Obama 22% 70%
Both our cadidates lost ground to McCain in a one-on-one matchup. Obama fares better:
McCain vs. Clinton McCain vs. Obama
February 48% - 40% 40% - 48%
March 50% - 41% 46% - 44%
One troubling news bit for Obama:
When independent candidate Ralph Nader is also included, we see no major shifts in the general election vote choices. McCain still has a seven-point lead over Clinton when Nader is included, though McCain's lead over Obama increases [2 points to] 4 points, placing it just outside the margin of error for this poll.
[emphasis mine]
I have a hard time believing that Nader will pull 2% of the national vote.
And, with the economy coming in at number 1 of voter concerns with 37%, (Iraq a distant second at 16%), this is one troubling trend for McCain, which I believe to be far more important in the long run:
"While McCain is certainly benefiting from the Democratic infighting, voter concerns about the economy could emerge as his Achilles' heel," says Amy walter, editor-in-chief of The Hotline. "Before the general election truly gets under way, he and his party must find a way to beter compete with The Democrats on this vital issue."
So, nothing new again, just more validation of the trends away from Clinton on all fronts. Have fun with these.