It now seems perfectly clear to everyone (including many in the mainstream media) that Hillary Clinton no longer has a plausible path to the nomination. Barack Obama's lead is simply to great to be overcome in the remaining contests. By my calculations, Senator Clinton would need to win something approaching 65% in every remaining contest. Given that she has only performed that well in two states and that Obama is very likely to win some of the final contests (North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana, and Oregon) it is seems reasonable to call the race.
The "super delegates" can end this now by moving en masse to Obama's corner. I have a very simple idea to help convince some of those delegates. Follow me after the jump for details.
Many of the super delegates are elected officials. As such, they face eventual battles for re-election. To these delegates two arguments can be made:
- An Obama candidacy will help you. Having Senator Obama at the top of the ticket will drive higher turnout and help ensure that Democrats farther down the ticket get elected or re-elected. Obama's ability to GOTV (especially among young people) will have a crushing effect on Republicans this year. Senator Clinton can not bring the same thing to the table.
- Elected Super Delegates who support Hillary are likely to face a challenge from their left. If Obama does not get the nomination many progressives will be angry. Some of them may be angry enough to leave the party. Many may well just decide to run for various offices as independents, which will take votes from the super in question and possibly cost them re-election.
I am not personally advocating the behavior set out in 2 above. I am simply stating that this is a possibility and that these super delegates should know it.