We all know that the pledged delegates are just one part of the nomination process, with superdelegates being the other.
The nomination is determined by DELEGATES. Not popular votes. Though, the popular vote may be used as a flawed piece of evidence to influence the superdelegates. But this diary is not about the popular vote, since there are obvious issues with how to count the popular vote. This diary is about actual elections, and when the election-based part of this nomination process will produce a winner with a majority of pledged delegates. (and yes, we all know how Hillary wants pledged delegates to leave Obama, again, thats another diary.)
After all my playing with numbers: I find that Obama will clinch the PD lead on either May 20th, or more optimistically, May 13th.
In figuring out when Obama will clinch the pledged delegate winner title, I made the following (and not minor) assumptions:
- Delegates will break roughly according to popular vote totals. (Big assumption, as we see Texas and Alabama)
- The delegate counts in prior caucus states will not change or will end up having changes that cancel each other out.
- Obama's baseline (current) PD lead is 169, as reported here.
After assigning delegates from each upcoming day of voting, I used the following formula to detemine how many PDs HRC would need to tie Obama:
50% + (Half of (Obama lead/PD's Left))
Thus, today, HRC needs .50+(169/566)/2 = 64.9% of Pledged Delegates left.
April 22nd: Pennsylvania
RCP's average has this state at +6.6 Clinton. This is probably not going to hold and is a result Obama's awesome Gutterball Bus Tour. I'll go with a 10 point Clinton victory, with PA's delegates splitting 87-71 for Clinton.
This leaves us with:
169 - 16 = 153 PD Obama lead with 408 PDs left.
After PA Clinton would have to win 68.75% of remaining PDs
.50 + ((153 / 408) / 2) = 0.6875
May 3rd: Guam
Who knows? Only 4 delegates, and 75.0001% needed to win a 3-1 split. Let's give it to Sen. Clinton.
This leaves us with:
153 - 2 = 151 PD Obama lead with 404 PDs left.
After PA Clinton would have to win 68.69% of remaining PDs
.50 + ((151 / 404) / 2) = 0.6868
May 6th: Indiana and North Carolina
Polls out of Indiana appear to be showing a Clinton lead in the single digits. I think Obama can/should win this state, but let's give it to Sen. Clinton by 6%, with delegates splitting 38-34 for Clinton.
RCP's average of NC has Obama up 16 points. The margin should be something like this, but I'm willing to make this a 12 point Obama win, with delegates splitting 64-51 for Obama.
This leaves us with:
151 - 4 + 13 = 160 PD Obama lead with 217 PDs left.
After May 6th Clinton would have to win 86.87% of remaining PDs (Which I think is technically impossible due to 15% thresholds)
.50 + ((160 / 217) / 2) = 0.868663594
May 13th: West Virginia
CLINTON BLOWOUT BY 30 POINTS! Why not? Everyone seems to say so. 18-10 delegate split for Sen. Clinton.
This leaves us with:
160 - 8 = 152 PD Obama lead with 175 PDs left.
After WV Clinton would have to win 93.42% of remaining PDs
.50 + ((152 / 175) / 2) = 0.934285714
May: 20th: Oregon and Kentucky
Let's call Oregon a tie (it's going Obama). 26-26 delegate tie.
As for Kentucky...OOPS! WE'RE OUT OF DELEGATES!
A delegate tie in Oregon would mean Sen Clinton would be behind 152 pledged delegates with only 123 pledged delegates left.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
What if Obama closes within 6% in PA, ties Guam, wins NC by 16%, wins IN by 2% and comes within 15% in WV?
PA: +10 Clinton
Guam: Tie
NC: +19 Obama
IN: +2 Obama
WV: +4 Clinton
Then after WV Obama will be up 176 PDs with only 175 PDs left to vote on.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Barack Obama will clinch the pledged delegate win on either May 20th or May 13th. After May 6th, Sen. Clinton will have to win more than 85% of the pledged delegates left, which may be impossible rather than just improbable.