Despite Bill saying North Carolina is a must win for Hillary, she is still down by 12 pts. in the latest Real Clear Politics Average for the state. MSNBC's First Read points out one good indicator - both leading Democratic gubernatorial candidates have not only endorsed Obama, but fighting over who supports him more. Richard Moore has ran a radio advertisement touting his support on radio stations aimed at African-American audiences and Beverly Purdue has sent a mailing targeting African-American households.
More after the jump...
Maybe we should stop pretending North Carolina is going to be competitive; it's not. The problem now for Clinton is what will the delegate count and popular vote count look like after May 6 if North Carolina is a blowout for Obama -- and if Clinton wins narrowly in Pennsylvania and Indiana. Will Obama net more delegates out of North Carolina than Clinton nets out of Pennsylvania and Indiana combined (if she wins them both)? Will Obama's popular vote lead actually grow after North Carolina, because his win there is bigger than hypothetical combined Clinton victories in PA and IN?
Obama has a significant demographic advantage in North Carolina. Black voters are expected to account for over 30% of primary voters. He won North Carolina's neighbors to the north (Virginia) and south (South Carolina) handily. He has received endorsements from both of the main Democratic gubernatorial candidates and is in a strong position with the NC congressional delegation.
Clinton, however, has an opportunity to make up some ground (and possibly keep her campaign afloat past May 6th). The recent strategy of sending Bill to rural areas is smart for three reasons. First, it keeps him out of the media spotlight. Second, he is still very popular in a lot of rural areas. Finally, those areas don't get a lot of attention at the national level. A former president coming to town is a very big deal (I believe in the quarter of a century plus I have been alive that only one future/current/former president has visited my hometown of Hendersonville, NC - George Bush I).
She can also play herself up as a New Democrat. North Carolinians like to elect moderate governors. Her recent efforts to cast herself as a populist may backfire though (and NAFTA isn't nearly as big an issue here because our governors have been doing their job). She should benefit from the endorsement of very popular former governor Jim Hunt (this blog post is the first I'd seen this). An endorsement from popular sitting governor Mike Easley would be another boost.
However, enthusiasm for Obama is high and the events of the past month will hurt Hillary. Lying about being under sniper fire will hurt Hillary a lot more in America's Most Military Friendly State(TM) than a brash preacher will hurt Obama here in the Bible Belt.