UPDATE: Peterson has endorsed Glenn Thompson! Well, this changes the dynamic a bit. There will be no western concensus candidate. Will the westerners line up behind Peterson's pick? Will the money start flowing in for Thompson, who has been a non-starter up to this point? /end update
It's increasingly looking like Bill Cahir will win the Democratic nomination in Pennsylvania's 5th district open seat race. He's raised over $120,000, far more than his 2 rivals, according to the financial reports submitted this week.
On the Republican side, it will come down to Walker and Shaner, with the possibility of a Peterson endorsement uniting the western Republicans behind either Stroup or Richardson. Geography does play a role in this district (6 candidates from the populous eastern part and 3 from the larger west). But time is running out for the retiring Peterson to make a difference in this 9-man GOP race when so many ads have already been run by the 3 rich candidates (all from the east).
See my previous diaries for run-downs on all of these candidates, with many links, etc. Fundraising numbers, and more on the flip.
Fundraising numbers can be seen at the FEC website (some details are not posted yet because some reports were hard-copies) and in Mike Joseph's CDT article today. The numbers:
Democrats:
Bill Cahir:
Ending Cash On Hand ~$99,000 (see Daren's comment below)
Net Contributions $120,565
Net Operating Expenditures $21,757
Debts Owed By $0
According to an email I got from his campaign:
Beginning on February 24, 2008, the Cahir campaign raised $120,565.32 in only thirty-nine days and was left with close to $100,000 cash-on-hand in the final three weeks before the April 22 primary.
In addition to the total amount raised, the campaign also released other indicators within their final report that demonstrated Cahir’s broad-based support.
- 429 unique contributors.
- An average contribution amount of $258
- $52,394.89 in total online contributions.
- 175 contributions of $50 or less.
Rick Vilello:
Numbers not posted, but the email from the Cahir campaign claimed he raised "around $27,000."
Mark McCracken:
Ending Cash On Hand $3,152
Net Contributions $6,942
Net Operating Expenditures $3,790
Debts Owed By $0
So, what do I think about this personally? Well, I had been moving toward ruling out McCracken, based on some of his various statements. I am fine with either Cahir or Vilello. Each has strengths and weaknesses, but I suspect Cahir will win the nomination and may be the stronger candidate for November. That's just my opinion - I'm not trying to shill or anything.
Republicans: the CDT summarizes it well enough:
The reports available Thursday showed that State College businessman Matt Shaner has the biggest war chest of any of the candidates, with more than $1.2 million of his personal funds invested.
But the reports showed that Walker has more contributed financial support from Republicans. He reported more than $140,000 in individual contributions, though several heavy contributors were Walker family members.
He has also spent $365,000 of his own money, although the last $100,000 was spent after the end of the period covered by the campaign finance report.
Both of these youngsters got support from entrenched business interests in the area, most notably Hawbacker for Walker. Club for Growth president, the awesome Pat Toomey, donated to Shaner.
As for the remaining Republicans:
Jeff Stroehmann, of Lycoming County, reported individual contributions of more than $21,000, together with $150,000 of his own money he’s invested in his campaign.
Former Centre County Commissioner Chris Exarchos reported receiving $9,490 in contributions together with $20,000 of his own money, while Centre County Republican Chairman Glenn Thompson raised more than $8,000 from contributors and used more than $1,000 of his own funds.
Numbers for the other 4 are not available.
I think Walker will get the nomination, but it will be close. This is a tragedy, because he will be tougher to beat than Shaner, and it is quite possible that he will be WORSE than Peterson in terms of energy and the environment. Hard to conceive of such a horror, I know.
In perusing Walker's website, I came across this article, which is a pretty good summary of the district and the race, particularly the Republican field, even if it has a Republican bias. It ends up with this bit:
The Democrats include three candidates who would be formidable in a district that elects Democrats, but probably aren't very electable in this one. They are well-regarded Lock Haven Mayor Rick Vilello, Clearfield County Commissioner Mark McCracken and journalist-turned Marine in Iraq Bill Cahir.
Some GOP insiders say there is a small possibility that if they nominate a vulnerable candidate – some name Richardson or Stroehmann or Shaner – then Cahir, an untraditional Democrat, could pull off an upset.
More likely, Cahir or the others if nominated will do what now state Rep. Scott Conklin did when Congressman Bill Shuster was first elected: run hard, scare the Republicans, make them spend extra money, then lose to the GOP nominee.
First, I wouldn't call Cahir an "untraditional Democrat" at all. I mean look at his policy statements on economy, healthcare, energy. Republicans always say veterans are "untraditional Democrats," when in reality, more Democrats are veterans! None of the 9 Republicans running in this district are veterans - that's for sure (keep in mind Shaner is only 28 and Walker is 32).
Secondly, let's prove that last paragraph wrong!