In today's NYT we have
Iran Fighting Proxy War in Iraq, U.S. Envoy Says
Iran is engaging in a proxy war with the United States in Iraq, adopting tactics similar to those it has used to back fighters in Lebanon, the United States ambassador to Iraq said Friday.
The remarks by the ambassador, Ryan C. Crocker, reflected the sharper criticism of Iran by President Bush and his top deputies over the past week, as administration officials have sought to trace many of their troubles in Iraq to Iran.
Why is this a crock? See below.
Crocker and Bush are now trying to make the argument that Iran is causing most of their troubles in Iraq. Of course a short while ago it was al-Qaeda. No matter, the American people won't notice because even John McCain can't tell the players without Joe whispering in his ear.
Let's start with the basics:
Iraqis love Iranians!
Yeah right. About the only thing that the Iraqis do agree on is that they don't like the Iranians. The Iranians are Persians. The Iraqis are Arabs. This is a fundamental fault line.
The Iraqis (Shiites in this case) are using the Iranians not because they want to be controlled by them, but because they are willing to help.
As soon as the US leaves Iraq, the Shiites will toss out the Iranians. The longer the US stays the more it allows for a relationship to develop between Iran and the Shiites.
What about Moqtada al-Sadr? Isn't he in Iran's pocket?
al Sadr is actually more of an Iraqi nationalist than anything else. His appeal is also much more of a class appeal. He appeals to the low and lower middle classes of Iraq, with a populist agenda. He actually scares the hell out of the Shiite establishment (who are trying to run things right now). He has spent time in Iran, but he is in no way subservient to them..he marches to his own drummer..and that scares the elites.
Saudi Arabia:
During the interview, Mr. Crocker accused Iran of meddling in Afghanistan, Lebanon and Gaza, in addition to Iraq. He also faulted Iraq’s Arab neighbors for refusing to help, noting that a promised Saudi Arabian Embassy had yet to materialize.
"It’s one of those things that have been in process for a long time," Mr. Crocker said of the promised Saudi Embassy. "They’ve sent a delegation to scout out property. But somehow it never quite gets done."
Here is what the Saudis said two years ago. It is probably still relevant.
The US has been pressing Saudi Arabia, along with other Arab states, to help Iraq by sending diplomatic representation to the country. But Saudi Arabia has been reluctant to comply following the kidnapping and murder this summer of Ihab al-Sharif, the Egyptian ambassador to Iraq, and Ali Belaroussi, the head of the Algerian mission, and his colleague Izzedine Belkadi, a diplomatic attache.
Prince Saud said a Saudi ambassador in Baghdad would become an immediate target for assassination. "I doubt that he'd last a day."
What is Iran up to?
From Mr. Bush down, administration officials this week have been turning up the volume on Iran. Administration officials said that Iranian support for Shiite militias became increasingly evident late last month during the indecisive Iraqi operation to wrest control of Basra from Shiite militias, in addition to the rocket attacks on the Green Zone.
Of course they want to cause mischief for the US. Wouldn't you if you were them? Labeled part of the Axis of Evil. Threatened with nuclear attacks. Wouldn't you want to "cause a bit of mischief" if your enemy was bogged down next door?
Remember one US General told Seymour Hersh in 2006 that the Iranians could take Basra with "10 mullahs and a sound truck". So they could try to cause REAL mischief, but they don't. It is sufficient to keep America bleeding...its cheaper and more effective and less dangerous.
Yes Iran is probably behind some of the mischief. However the way to get rid of their influence is to leave! It's that bloody simple. Leave and the Iraqis will start running their own country...they will toss the Iranians out because they will not need them anymore...and they don't like Persians...period.
The Shiites know that all they have to do is wait. The Americans will leave soon enough, and then their demographics will give them the control they have always wanted.
So what?
If the press did their job they could deconstruct every argument for staying and make it into an argument for leaving.
The Iranians will very likely be tossed out if the Americans leave. al-Qaeda in Iraq will be tossed out if the Americans leave (as they have already been severely weakened by the strategy of buying of the Sunni militias) as the foreigners will no longer be needed to fight the Americans.
My favorite line is one from Gwynne Dyer in his book "The mess they Made"...
the resistance to the occupation hones both the skills and the ideology of radical Islamists from Iraq and abroad, but the whole notion of "breeding grounds" and "terrorist bases" is a misconception based on analogies from conventional military operations.
"You don’t need a whole country to be a terrorist, a couple of rooms will do.