A great interactive map from USA-TODAY based on ARIS (see USA-MAP);
and
CNN's ElectionCenter2008 for Primary Demographics (see CNN-EC2008)
Pew's RLS is "da phatt-est" religious demographic survey currently available. I strongly suggest that the reader spend some time "playing around" with this comprehensive report; however, as its "maps" section combines Connecticut with Rhode Island and Vermont with New Hampshire, I was forced to rely on the other reports to disaggregate the data for these states in order to show how religious affiliation impacted on their primaries. As Obama won Connecticut and Vermont and Hillary won Rhode island and New Hampshire it is essential to show that distinctions in the religious demographics of each of these states played a role in their outcomes.
The Dominance of Catholicism
Though a slim majority of Americans are Protestants, Catholicism is the largest of all religious denominations in the US. Unlike Catholicism, which is considered a single denomination, Protestantism covers many denominations (see RLS). The percentage of Americans who identify themselves as Protestant has decreased from nearly 66% during the 1980's to 51% in 2007. The percentage of Americans who are Catholics has fallen from 25% in 2001 to 23.9% in 2007. The primary reason for the insignificant decrease in the Catholic population is the disproportionate number of immigrants to the US who are Catholic - 46% vs. 24% Protestant.
Catholics are also the largest denominational group in the 110th Congress
Catholics remain the largest denominational group in Congress, with 155 members -- 25 in the Senate and 130 in the House. But there are fewer Catholic Republicans in both houses since the 109th Congress and many more Catholic Democrats.
In the last Senate, Catholic members were nearly evenly split between the parties, with 11 Republicans and 13 Democrats. Now there are 9 Catholic Republicans and 16 Catholic Democrats in the Senate.
In the House at the start of the 109th Congress, there were 129 Catholics -- 57 Republicans and 72 Democrats. Although the total number of House Catholics in the 110th Congress is nearly the same at 130, the current group includes 42 Republicans and 88 Democrats.
Catholics: The Real Swingers
Catholics, who make up about a quarter of the registered voters in the country, have backed the winner of the national popular vote for at least the last nine presidential elections, going back to 1972.
The Catholic scorecard: five Republican and three Democratic presidents, and one popular-vote-winning but presidency-losing Democrat, Al Gore.
No other large group has switched sides so often, or been so consistently aligned with the winners. Over that same period, a majority of white Protestants typically voted Republican, while blacks of all faiths and Jews strongly backed Democrats.
"Catholics are the last swing voters left in the country," said Brian O’Dwyer, a Manhattan lawyer and a Clinton supporter.
Winning the Catholic vote in Presidential Elections appears to be a necessary condition to winning the Presidency.
Hopeful Endorsements
Just before Tsunami Tuesday, the Obama campaign picked up three endorsements that could have favorably impacted the first nationwide primary. Sen Ted Kennedy (D-Mass), Rep Pat Kennedy(D-RI) and Rep Xavier Becerra (D-CA, the highest ranking Latino in the House) were suppose to help Obama make inroads into the Hispanic vote, and also assist in closing Hillary's significant lead in Massachusetts. The results of the Tsunami Tuesday Primaries, with Clinton winning California, Massachusetts, and New Jersey, had the value of the Kennedy endorsements being questioned from coast-to-coast. Not only did the overwhelming majority of Hispanics in California vote for Clinton, but Sen Kennedy, along with Mass Governor Deval Patrick, were not able to deliver their state to Obama. While the pundits pondered which group in what state was responsible for these outcomes, they overlooked the simple fact that, except for Illinois and Missouri, Clinton won the Catholic vote that day, often by a 2 to 1 majority.
Primary Analysis
(WARNING - If you hate numbers, you're gonna hate this section! Jump to Summary.)
Tsunami Tuesday
In Illinois, where 32% of the population and 33% of the Democratic Primary Voters (DPV) are Catholic, Obama and Hillary split the Catholic vote. In Missouri (18% of population and 19% of DPV Catholic) Obama won just over 50% of the Catholic vote. Obama won two other Tsunami Tuesday Primary states with Catholic populations greater than the national average of 24% - Delaware (27% of population and 27% of DPV) and Connecticut (32% of population and 41% of DPV). In each of these states, Hillary won slightly less than 60% of the Catholic vote.
How well did Clinton do amongst Catholics in the "Big" Tsunami Tuesday States that she won? In a word - fantastic! In California (31% of population and 32% of DPV Catholic) she won 65% of the Catholic vote, the same percentage she won of the Hispanic vote. In Massachusetts (43% of population and 35% of DPV Catholic) Clinton took 64% of the Catholic vote. And in New Jersey (42% of population and 37% of DPV Catholic) 69% of the Catholic vote went to Hillary. In her (second) adopted home state of New York (39% of population and 37% of DPV Catholic) Hillary won 66% of the Catholic vote. In the smaller states with significant Catholic voting blocs that took part in Tsunami Tuesday - Arizona (25% of population and 30% of DPV Catholic) and New Mexico (26% of population and 31% of the DPV Catholic)Hillary won 57% and 60% of the Catholic vote, respectively. The results of Tsunami Tuesday seem to indicate that, irrespective of ethnicity, Catholics prefer Clinton to Obama.
Black Catholic Primary
On February 9th Louisiana, the Southern State with the highest proportion of Catholics (28% of population and 34% of DPV) went for Obama 2 to 1. He also won slightly more than 50% of the Catholic vote, but the demographics of Catholicism in Louisiana is unique. Home of the only Historically Black Catholic University in America - Xavier - Louisiana also has the largest per-capita Black Catholic population in the country. Since Obama won 85% of the Black vote in Louisiana, it would appear that Black Catholics would have given him the slim edge here.
Potomac Primary
The next round of Primaries occurred on February 12th when DC, Maryland and Virginia voted. In Maryland (22% of population and 21% of DPV Catholic) Hillary won the Catholic vote 48% to 45%. In Virginia (14% of population and 17% of DPV Catholic) Obama won the Catholic vote 52% to 46%. Not only did Obama do well with Catholics in these two states, he won the White Male vote in each of them, and also the total White vote in Virginia. The upcoming Wisconsin Primary would be the test case to ascertain if Obama's successes in Maryland and Virginia with Whites and Catholics was a fluke.
Wisconsin Primary
The demographics of Wisconsin, with 19% of the population and 39% of DPV Catholic, and overwhelming white (87%), not only seemed to favor Clinton, the similarities to Ohio could not be overlooked. When Obama won the primary by a resounding 17% (thanks mainly to winning 60% of the under-60 White vote), both Ohio and Texas were no longer considered sure things for Clinton; however, Hillary again won the Catholic vote, but just barely - 51% to 49%.
Jr Tuesday Primary
On the eve of the Jr Tuesday Primaries (Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont) Obama appeared to making inroads into two of Hillary's strongest support groups - Whites and Catholics. Texas would be the linchpin. If Obama could win the Lone Star state's primary, Hillary would be effectively knocked-out of the Primaries.
It was not to be. Hillary squeaked by with a 4-point win in the Texas primary. Though they split the Protestant vote, Hillary won 65% of the Catholic vote in Texas (24% of the population and 32% of the DPV are Catholics). In Ohio (21% of population and 22% of the DPV Catholic), Clinton won 63% of the Catholic vote. Even though only 21% of Ohioans are Catholics, Ohio ranks 10th in total number of Catholics.
Hillary's largest margin of victory on Jr Tuesday came in Rhode Island where she trounced Obama 58% to 40%. Once again, Clinton's Catholic support was decisive:
Rhode Island is the most heavily Roman Catholic state in the country and Clinton scored an overwhelming victory among this group. More than half of voters in the Democratic primary called themselves Catholic, and they went for Clinton two-to-one over Obama.
Florida & Michigan Beauty Contests
Though Florida doesn't count (yet), it ranks 8th in the number of Catholics, and ranks 2nd,
behind Louisiana, among the southern states in percentage of population Catholic. 23% of the Democratic (non)Primary Voters were Catholic and Clinton won 63% of their votes.
Michigan, which counts even less than Florida, as neither Obama nor Edwards were on the ballot, ranks 9th in the number of Catholics. Running against uncommitted and Kucinich, Dodd and Gravel, Clinton won 55% of the vote. Yawn.
Summary
% of Catholic Vote Won by Clinton
Primary States w/ > 15% Catholic Population, except Michigan
State | % Catholic Vote |
---|
Arizona(W) | 57 |
California(W) | 65 |
Connecticut(L) | 60 |
Delaware(L) | 60 |
Florida(W) | 63 |
Illinois(L) | 50 |
Louisiana(L) | 43 |
Maryland(L) | 48 |
Massachusetts(W) | 65 |
Missouri(L) | 46 |
New Hampshire(W)* | 44 |
New Jersey(W) | 69 |
New Mexico(W) | 60 |
New York(W) | 66 |
Ohio(W) | 63 |
Rhode Island(W) | 69 |
Texas(W) | 65 |
Virginia(L) | 46 |
Wisconsin(L) | 51 |
* New Hampshire is an obvious outlier, the result of John Edwards winning 24% of the Catholic vote.
The "average" of the percent of the Catholic vote for Hillary in states that she won (excluding New Hampshire) is 64%.
The "average" of the percent of the Catholic vote for Hillary in states that she lost is 50.5%.
Pennsylvania Primary
Pennsylvania is the 5th most populous Catholic state with 29% of the population Catholic. A recent Zogby Poll, released just prior to the "BittaGate" imbroglio, gave Clinton a 62% to 29% lead over Obama with Pennsylvania's Catholics. And 62% is just shy of Clinton's "winning average" with Catholics of 64%. Yet the same Zogby Poll showed Obama leading Clinton among Protestants 50% to 40%. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why Hillary has seen her once insurmountable lead in Pennsylvania shrink to 6.7%.
Too Little, Too Late?
On Friday, April 11, the Obama campaign took direct action to mitigate his Catholic problem, all the while denying that the problem even exists:
To deal with the challenge, Obama's campaign is aggressively courting Catholics at the grassroots, while denying he has a Catholic problem.
Last week, the campaign kicked off an effort to win over Pennsylvania Catholics, led by Mark Linton, a former Senate staffer of Obama's who specializes in poverty issues and community organizing. The campaign is deploying neighborhood canvassing teams, holding Catholic debate parties, reaching out to allies in local parishes and using high-profile anti-abortion officials like Sen. Robert Casey to ease concerns about Obama's unabashedly pro-abortion-rights record.
On Friday, Obama announced the creation of a national Catholic advisory board led by Casey and former Indiana Rep. Tim Roemer - all the while denying suggestions that Obama is alarmed by the voting patterns.
"Senator Obama's done really well with Catholics," Roemer said. "This perception that he doesn't do well with Catholics, that there's a gap there, it's not necessarily accurate."
To make his case, Roemer pointed to Obama's victories among Catholics in Wisconsin, Louisiana and Vermont.
But that's only part of the picture. In fact, Obama has lost eight of the top 10 states ranked by Catholic population - New York, California, New Jersey, Texas, Massachusetts, Florida, Ohio and Michigan.
If There's No Solution, Then Is There A Problem?
The Obama campaign's denial of a Catholic problem only makes sense if there is no solution to his inability to attract Catholic voters. If this is the case, then just what is it about Obama and Catholicism that would create such a dichotomy. Is it racial? After all, only 2% of Catholics are Black. For comparison, 3% of Mormons are Black, and most people consider the Mormon Church to be anti-black. This "fact", however, is open to dispute.
On a recent episode of "Hardball", Pat Buchanan and Mike Barnicle stated that Obama's style and cadence of speech was part of the reason for his Catholic problem as they were "not that of the Catholic pulpit" (Pat @ 2:53; Mike @ 4:50):
<iframe height="339" width="425" src="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/24165301#24165301" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>
Buchanan: "Obama is a tremendous speaker, but his is the speech of a Protestant Pulpit, it is not the Catholic Pulpit we know and so there is a little of a cultural difference there..."
Barnicle: "Obama has the cadence of, that comes from, Pat's right, a Southern Protestant Pulpit."
So its not racial, its cadence. Fair enough. Could there be two more dissimilar church services than those of the Black Protestant Church and those of the Catholic Church? One is spiritual and spontaneous, the other pedantic and authoritarian. One emphasizes feeling, the other formality. One keeps it simple and makes it plain, the other is gaudy and overly secretive. One might proclaim "Goddamn America" if appropriate, the other never would, no matter what. But are these differences enough to explain Obama's inability to attract Catholic voters? Who can say? Of course, if Obama becomes the nominee of the Democratic Party and wins the election in November with a large percentage of the Catholic vote, then this all becomes moot - as in resolved and thus not worthy of discussion.
Likemindedness
Do White Catholics and Hispanic Catholics vote differently? Looking back over the past two Presidential elections we find that Al Gore won 50% of the overall Catholic vote and 65% of the Hispanic vote. For comparison, Gore won 90% of the Black vote. Kerry, a Catholic, won 47% of the overall Catholic vote and 59% of the Hispanic vote. For comparison, Kerry won 88% of the Black vote. In the 2000 election, the difference between the overall Catholic vote and the Hispanic vote for Gore was 15%, while the difference between the Hispanic vote and the Black vote for Gore was 25%. In the 2004 election, the difference between the overall Catholic vote and Hispanic vote for Kerry was 12%, while the difference between the Hispanic vote and the Black vote for Kerry was 29%. Though Hispanics have favored the Democratic candidate in the last two Presidential elections, the difference between the Hispanic and the overall Catholic vote (15% and 12%) is insignificant compared to the difference between the Hispanic vote and the Black vote (25% and 29%). As this pattern has continued into the current Democratic Primary, where Hispanic Catholics and White Catholics have voted similarly, it would appear that Obama's Hispanic problem is indeed part of his overall problem in winning the Catholic vote.
Da Bitta End
A Zogby Poll released on April 17 indicates that the race Pennsylvania is "deadlocked". Though Clinton has maintained her advantage with Catholic voters she has lost the 35 to 54 age group:
A key demographic group that has changed its mind in the last week is Democratic voters age 35 to 54, who just one week ago favored Clinton by a 45% to 40% margin. Now, Obama leads among those voters by a 47% to 41% edge. Clinton leads among voters older than age 54, while Obama leads among the younger set.
But when it comes to Da-Bitta, Pennsylvanians agree with Obama 2 to 1:
The survey also asked specifically about the controversy, asking likely voters whether they agreed with the Obama critics who have said the comments show he is an elitist who does not understand working people and their problems—29% agreed. But 60% said they agreed with Obama supporters who have said he is simply telling the truth about these people who are suffering from the results of economic policies in Washington.