One of the best indicators that this is shaping up to be a special election year for Democrats is the high number of relatively credible candidates running around the country...including in some districts we’ve abandoned for years, districts with entrenched Republican incumbents or districts which vote preposterously Republican at the federal level.
It seems as if everyone who has kicked around the idea of running for Congress has decided this is the year, that getting in now is their best chance at winning election for the foreseeable future.
Districts which most people never dreamed would be competitive this fall have drawn surprisingly credible Democratic candidates. Some of these, like Debbie Cook or Donald Betts, happen to be unusually high-profile. Others have shown shocking fundraising prowess, like Linda Ketner or Michael Skelly.
So here is a partial list of long-shot campaigns run by credible candidates. These are the kind of races that won't be listed as top-tier pickup opportunities, and most of them will be under the radar for the bulk of the election cycle, but may have some sleeper potential.
At the very least, it's certainly possible that the Republicans are going to have to defend their incumbents from dark-horse campaigns in these formerly safe, untouchable territories...which has the effect of drawing Republican money away from other, less solidly Republican districts where Democrats have an even better shot at winning.
It is not likely that many of these districts will wind up being competitive; in fact, a few of the candidates below will undoubtedly wind up losing by significant margins. Still, these candidates have done well enough so far that they're worthy of attention; in fact, some of them have already been added to the DCCC's race map, indicating that their strengths have not gone unnoticed by the powers that be.
So here are a few dark horses who are showing the ability to cause trouble for Republicans in some of the reddest of turf.
Special thanks to James L. at Swing State Project for putting together his fantastic table of fundraising numbers.
Bob Lord, AZ-03. We’ve blogged about Lord before, as he’s been making waves with his fundraising for several months. Lord is sort of the case study for these dark horse candidates; he is running in a district which was not expected to be competitive, against a high-profile and well-entrenched Republican incumbent, John Shadegg. Lord single-handedly put this race on the map for 2008, with the strength of his fundraising and candidacy convincing the DCCC to target this race. Lord is a candidate who transformed his long-shot campaign into a serious pickup opportunity.
Josh Segall, AL-03. In his first quarter fundraising-actually his first as a candidate for any office-29-year-old Montgomery attorney Josh Segall raised $273,000. That would be an impressive total for a first time candidate under any circumstances, but of particular note is that it is nearly three times as much as Republican incumbent Mike Rogers raised in the same time frame.
We can expect Rogers to pick up his fundraising pace, and he’ll have to; this district, while Republican leaning, is by no means safe. The district has a PVI of only R+4.3; Gore did quite well there in 2000, picking up 47%. In Rogers’ first campaign for the seat, he was nearly defeated by Democrat Joe Turnham, now the state party chairman.
Rogers hasn’t faced a serious challenge since he beat Turnham in 2002, but it’s looking as though he may face one this year.
Donald Betts, KS-04. Betts is a state senator from the Wichita area who is taking on Republican incumbent Todd Tiahrt in a crimson district. Generally, state legislators are considered exceptionally strong recruits, as they already have a political base to build on; it’s rather remarkable to get a high-profile state legislator like Betts to run, risking a safe Senate seat, in such a strongly Republican district.
Betts has been blessed with extraordinary luck in his political career and has enjoyed a meteoric rise thus far. He won his race for the State House of Representatives the same yeat e graduated from college, in 2002. Just one year later he won a special election for the State Senate, becoming the youngest Senator in Kansas’ history. (Ironically, the man he replaced, U.L. Gooch, was the oldest member of the Kansas Senate on his retirement).
It's a very, very tough district for a Democrat, at R+12.2. I believe, however, that both Governor Sebelius and former Kansas Attorney General Paul Morrison won the district in 2006.
Scott Harper, IL-13. Harper raised over $130K in the first quarter of 2008, prompting the DCCC to add the 13th, currently represented by Republican Judy Biggert, to its list of races to watch.
Republican incumbent Judy Biggert hasn’t faced a close race since she was first elected in 1998 with 61% of the vote. Her toughest challenge came in 2006, when underfunded Democrat Joseph Shannon picked up 42% of the vote in a strongly Democratic year.
Biggert’s district isn’t exactly overwhelmingly Republican-it’s R+4.7, roughly the same as the neighboring 14th District where Bill Foster recently won an upset victory-but it’s sufficiently Republican that Democrats have not seriously contested it for years, or actually won election since the New Deal era.
This cycle, however, Democrat Scott Harper has shown signs of life. He raised $134,000 in the first quarter to Biggert’s $153,000, surprising numbers considering the historically Republican bent of the district.
Biggert still has a healthy CoH advantage, and she is an infinitely stronger candidate than Jim Oberweis, so I think it would be a mistake to assume that this district will be competitive simply because IL-14 was. However, given that Obama is the likely Democratic candidate, it’s possible that Scott Harper could cause enough trouble for Biggert to force the Republicans to spend some money here.
Dennis Shulman, NJ-05. Shulman has received quite a bit of attention in the netroots, and for good reason. He has a very interesting story, as a clinical psychologist, educator, rabbi, and blind person.
NJ-05 is a solidly Republican district at R+4.4, but incumbent Scott Garrett received just 55% in 006 against Democrat Paul Aronsohn. And Shulman, rather than being just a good story, has proven to be a pretty good fundraiser as well, bringing in $123,000 in Q1. This has led the DCCC to add NJ-05 to their race map, which seems to indicate that they believe in Shulman’s candidacy.
Debbie Cook, CA-46. Cook is the mayor of Huntington Beach, California, and is running against Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher, whom she outraised in the first quarter of 2008 (although she brought in only $47,000). She will have her first full quarter as a candidate coming up, and hopefully she can cut into Rohrabacher’s healthy cash-on-hand advantage. As a fairly high-profile office-holder, Cook would seem to be a strong candidate in a staunchly Republican district.
Linda Ketner, SC-01. Ketner is a wealthy businesswoman and activist who has raised eyebrows for her Q1 fundraising, bringing in over three times as much as Republican incumbent Henry Brown. She also has the ability to put her own funds into the race, and she’ll need every penny she can find in this R+9.6 district. Still, her fundraising numbers in the last filing period are pretty shocking, especially next to Brown’s.
Rob Miller, SC-02. Republican incumbent Joe Wilson has sat undisturbed of late in SC-02, which gave Bush 60% of the vote in 2004. For once, however, he has a legitimate challenger, Iraq War veteran and Marine captain Rob Miller, who raised an impressive $147,000 in Q1. It won’t be easy running in a district like this, but Miller appears to have the profile and the fundraising ability to cause trouble for Wilson.
Tom Perriello, VA-05. Perriello outraised the infamous incumbent Virgil Goode in the first quarter, bringing in a hefty $341,000 and having nearly twice that much on hand. The district is Republican, but at R+5.6, it’s conceivable that the right Democrat could win it. Goode was originally elected as a Democrat, and Tim Kaine won the district in his 2005 gubernatorial race. More on this race to come.
Michael Skelly, TX-07. We’ve blogged about this one before; Skelly’s Q1 fundraising numbers are even more insane that the district’s PVI of R+15.6.