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This is my final prediction. After analyzing many polls, I come up with the likely composition of the PA primary tomorrow. I entered the likely percentage for each candidate in a spreadsheet provided by Pollster.com and surprisingly Obama can win and will win the state.

Here's the composition by race of my prediction and the final result

78% White 58%-41% Clinton
17% Black 89%-10% Obama
5% Other 59%-39% Obama

Total:
     Barack Obama     50.1%
     Hillary Clinton  48.9%

Obama will run huge margins in Philadelphia and its suburbs due to influx of newly registered voters. Many will be surprised tomorrow if this story is true as reported by The Politico three weeks ago.

Another high-stakes voter registration drive just concluded in Pennsylvania, where the deadline to register as a Democrat and participate in the primary was March 24. The Pennsylvania Department of State reports that more than 234,000 voters have either newly registered as Democrats or switched from other parties, and the state hasn't finished counting the new registrations.
"We put together a massive effort," said Hildebrand, saying that the numbers include "over 200k Obama supporters" - an impressive number, and  likely more than 10 percent of the total turnout in the primary.

Over 200K supporters? That's more than 10% of voters tomorrow if the turnout is 1,900,000-a high turnout for a closed primary.

PPP poll and SurveyUSA both have Obama getting more than 20% of the 5% of "others" votes and I used a similar margin in my spreadsheet.

Here you have it, a 1.2% margin of victory for Barack Obama

Feel free to chime in with your own prediction and why my assumptions may be wrong.

Originally posted to Jr1886 on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 06:35 PM PDT.

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