Here is a short list of things to remember this evening as we wait for results to come in. I hope everyone here reads this and takes it to heart. I'm not trying to rain on anyones parade or anything I just want to avoid some of the panic, worry and heartbreak I see so often on this website.
Note: Thanks for all the recommends guys! If you feel these tips are worthy of more people to read feel free to recommend this diary.
Update is at the bottom!
Things to remember in general.
- Do not trust leaked exit polls. They have been way off this cycle, and been slanted in Obama's favor. A substantial Clinton lead in the exit polls is more reflective of reality than something that shows Obama three or four points ahead. But overall these things aren't reliable and generally only represent a tiny portion of the electorate. Just ignore them.
- Ignore very early returns, such as in the first hour after polls close. Its very likely that rural areas will report their results before the big cities, which means that the early numbers should favor Clinton. I expect the race to be called when the results still show Clinton ahead by 10+ points. However things should close dramatically once all votes are counted.
- Pennsylvania is tailor made for Clinton. Because of that her winning the state is expected. While many of us have gotten our hopes up that Obama can pull off an upset the fact remains that Pennsylvania features all of Clinton's strongest demographics and started off with a huge pro-Clinton bias. Combating that bias in the midst of a media storm against Obama has been tough and even an extra week of campaigning in the state probably wouldn't be enough to narrow Clinton's lead any further. The expectations game is over at this point, the votes are being cast and I'm being honest. Expect Obama to lose.
Things to remember about a Clinton win.
- A Clinton win, even a large Clinton win (say 12 points or so) while not the best news for Obama does not in any way signal a possible comeback for Hillary Clinton. Unless she wins by 20% or more she is in no better position post-Pennsylvania than she was pre-Pennsylvania. So do not panic Obama fans, its up to you to set the narrative straight while the media does back flips for Clinton.
- Clinton is broke. A Pennsylvania win while beneficial to her and her fund raising numbers, will not yield the kind of financial support she needs to get out of debt and seriously compete with Obama in the upcoming states.
- A loss for Obama will not effect his campaign one way or the other. Clinton will win bragging rights from this contest and a handful of delegates. That is all. Obama will be able to make up the delegates and retake the momentum in North Carolina two weeks from now where Clinton is expected to make little more than a half hearted attempt to compete.
- Expect the media to give Clinton extremely favorable coverage if she wins. The whole comeback kid coverage will resume as it did post Ohio. The talk will likely focus on exit polls data and how the vote broke down along racial lines. And of course how Obama Scandal X influenced the results. Expect lots of talk about Rev. Wright being a factor, bitter-gate bringing down Obama even the flag lapel and Bill Ayres stuff will be on the table. It's up to Obama supporters to fight back!
- Do not get angry. Do not attack Clinton or Democrats who voted for her. While I too will no doubt feel the urge it is important to remember we are all part of the same party. Try to avoid getting upset.
- Do not stay up all night looking for analysis of the election that makes you feel better about the race. Be sure to stay up and watch for the final results (remember they'll probably call the race when Clinton is up by 10+ percent) but do not torture yourself by staying up all night reading blog post after blog post the results and aftermath of Pennsylvania will be there for you in the morning and rehased over the next 2 weeks. So go to bed sleepy head.
Things to remember about an Obama win.
- If Obama somehow pulls off a win go get drunk. Seriously such an upset would be the kind of decisive victory that warrants a hangover in the morning and calling in sick to work. Obama winning this thing is so remote that if it happens this contest is over. No question about it. For Obama to win, a sizable chunk of the white vote will have to break for him in a state that is considerably pro-Hillary. Such an upset seems unthinkable right now, super delegates from all over would flood to Obama and the entire narrative of the campaign season would change gears over night. Such an outcome is a long shot. Do not get your hopes up. They will be broken in a few short hours.
No matter what the outcome.
- Send a donation to Obama! (Thanks converse)
Update:
Hat tip to commenter Oreo who brought up this from Huffington Post
- Remember that there's no way Hillary can become the nominee without a superdelegate coup -- which would alienate a generation of young Democrats and dangerously fracture the party.
- Remember that her campaign leaked internals showing an eleven point lead (as a means of firing up her supporters and getting out the vote). Therefore, any win smaller than eleven points should be considered a disappointment by her own assessment.
- Remember that every time Hillary begins a sentence with "you know," or "my opponent," the next thing out of her mouth is a lie.
- Remember that when Clinton surrogates say "this proves Obama can't win the big states," they're ignoring the fact that he actually won more delegates in Texas -- not to mention twice as many states as she has. - cont'd at HuffPo