As the night wore on and I thought through Senator Clinton's super delegate strategy, I got to thinking: Just how many super delegates would she need to erase Obama's delegate lead? So, hitting Dem Con Watch, I did a little subtracting and dividing and came up with an interesting number:
As of today, Barack Obama needs just 89 more super delegates to seal up the nomination.
Get your calculators and follow the math with me, this will be fun.
OK, so here's the total pledged and super delegates that DCW is reporting as of this morning:
Obama 1722
Clinton 1592
That gives Obama a 130 delegate lead. Now, let's assume that the remaining primaries wash each other out and, by the time Montana and South Dakota finish counting, we're still at 130 delegates.
Right now, there are 307 uncommitted super delegates. For Clinton to erase that 130 delegate lead, she would have to win over the remaining super delegates by a 219 to 88 count.
Which means, that should Obama's lead hold, all he has to do is win over 89 more super delegates and its over. Even if super delegates continue committing to each candidate at an even rate, Obama still takes the nomination walking away. The only way Clinton could win at that point is by convincing Obama's super delegates to cross over. Given the divided state of the party at this moment, I don't think that's a likely possibility.