This race seems to be slogging on forever, and some have talked of it going all the way to the convention. I doubt that. I think the whole thing is going to end on May 21. Here’s why.
Two things happen on May 21. One is practical and statistical. The other is political and psychological.
There is a total of 3,253 pledged delegates available from the legitimate, sanctioned Democratic primaries. Obama currently has 1,490 of these. Upcoming races are as follows:
May 3: Guam – 4 delegates
May 6: NC/IN – 187 delegates
May 13 – WV – 28 delegates
On the conservative assumption that Obama wins just 45% of these pledged delegates (99), he would have a total of 1,589 going into the Oregon and Kentucky primaries on May 20. There are 103 delegates at stake that day, so if Obama earns just 37% of them (again, a very conservative assumption), he will have definitively won the pledged delegate contest by achieving a 1,627 majority.
That’s the practical, statistical fact. The political equation is this: once Obama wins an absolute majority of pledged delegates, any superdelegate who continues to support Hillary Clinton is, by definition, supporting an outcome that thwarts the popular will of the Democratic party, as evidenced in the only legitimate, recognized expression of that will, the pledged delegate count. I think there are a lot of superdelegates who have endorsed and support HRC for a lot of reasons, good and bad - friendship, loyalty, past favors, whatever. And as long as there has been a statistical possibility, however remote, of HRC's winning the delegate race, they have willing to stand by her. But once that possibility becomes an impossibility, I seriously question whether that support will really extend to overturning the pledged delegate outcome of the primary.
Thus, my prediction: on May 21, the day after the Oregon/Kentucky races and Obama’s achievement of the 1,627 pledged delegate win, there will a massive shift of superdelegates, both the undeclareds and a LOT of those previous declared for Clinton, into the Obama corner – enough, in fact, to push him over the 2,025 total delegates needed to secure the nomination and bring this all to an end.
Comments?