Cross-posted at Election Inspection
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(Side note: For anyone who wants to know how we did with Pennsylvania)
First of all, because there isn't all that much recent polling data from Indiana, so I'm not going to try the statewide projection yet (even though I believe that either way, the winning candidate won't win by more than 5 points). But I think that it's possible to do the basic CD allocation. Now, these projections are early, and if new polling comes along, I'll be sure to update. Also, one major wild card here is that this is an open primary. On the one hand, Obama has, on balance, been helped out by open primaries (in fact, even though there was some evidence of Republican meddling in Ohio, on the whole, Obama still did better among Republicans and Independents than among Democrats; but on the other hand, it's pretty clear that in Mississippi, Obama was hurt by Republicans (which, by the way, could just be due to the nature of Mississippi politics). With that in mind, let's look at the Congressional districts:
CD 1
Delegates at stake: 6 (Obama 3, Clinton 3)
District Profile
District analysis: At first glance, this district seems like it would be Clinton territory, not too many African Americans, relatively low number of people with bachelor's degrees, reasonably high number of hispanics, and a median income of under $50,000. However, there is one thing which gives Obama a distinct advantage here, and that is the fact that much of this district is an exurb of Chicago (in fact, the district itself is in the Chicago media market. In fact, I believe (though this isn't a guarantee) that because of this, Obama will likely outperform in CD-08 as well (at least compared to other demographic trends). Having said all of that, while I believe that Obama will win the district, I don't believe he will reach 58.35% in order to get a 4-2 split.
CD-02
Delegates at stake: 6 (Clinton 3, Obama 3)
District Profile
District analysis: At first glance, this looks like a district where Clinton should get a 4-2 split, but upon looking at how Clinton did in a similar district in Pennsylvania, PA-05, where Clinton only managed to get 57.6% of the vote (which would be .8% short of a 4-2 split in a 6 delegate district), and considering that this district has a higher percentage of African Americans (even when factoring in the number of latinos here) I have to believe that Obama can pretty easily keep Clinton below 58.35% and maintain a delegate tie.
CD-03
Delegates at stake: 4 (Clinton 2, Obama 2)
District Profile
District analysis: Another district with a striking similarity to PA-05, only this is slightly better educated, and has slightly more latinos (6.1%) than African Americans (5.8%). Clinton will win the district, but she won't get the 62.5% of the vote needed for a 3-1 split.
CD-04
Delegates at stake: 4 (Clinton 2, Obama 2)
District Profile
District analysis: Wow... this district is so much like PA-19 that I can basically predict almost the same outcome here, it will be a 2-2 split with Clinton getting a majority of votes.
CD-05
Delegates at stake: 4 (Clinton 3, Obama 1)
District Profile
District analysis: Ok, this district is basically the same as PA-18, Clinton should get enough here for the 62.5% to get a 3-1 split.
CD-06
Delegates at stake: 5 (Clinton 4, Obama 1)
District Profile
District analysis: This is a Pennsyltucky district where Clinton has tended to rack up massive leads (just like OH-06. Clinton should easily break 70% of the vote and rack up a 4-1 delegate spread here.
CD-07
Delegates at stake: 6 (Obama 4, Clinton 2)
District Profile
District analysis: This district is pretty similar to MS-03, where Obama won 65% of the vote, even considering that there are slight differences here comparable to MS-03 (relatively high latino population, slightly lower education rate and slightly fewer African Americans), this district should give Obama at least 60% of the vote (more than the 58.35% needed for a 4-2 split).
CD-08
Delegates at stake: 6 (Clinton 4, Obama 2)
District Profile
District analysis: Remember me writing in that Obama should be able to outperform in this district thanks to it's proximity to Illinois? Well, I stand by that, but the problem is, that overperforming here basically means keeping Clinton below 70% of the vote. This is a Pennsyltucky district, and will easily give Clinton a 4-2 split.
CD-09
Delegates at stake: 6 (Clinton 4, Obama 2)
District Profile
District analysis: Pennsyltucky is pretty prominent in Indiana, and it's pretty obvious with this district, Clinton should be able to get around 70% of the vote, which guarantees her a 4-2 split.
CD Delegates Total:
Delegates at stake: 47 (Clinton 27, Obama 20)
Final Note: I'd like to make something clear, while it is true that on the face of it, Clinton should have an advantage with delegates on the CD level (this just happens to be the nature of how the Democrats do their presidential contests), something to keep in mind is that this doesn't mean that Clinton will win Indiana at large. In fact, it is very possible that what happened to Clinton in Nevada could happen to Obama in Indiana (Obama could win the state, while Clinton wins more delegates). This could actually benefit Obama, since, in order for Clinton to claim a win on those grounds, she'd have to concede that it's the delegates that matter. I'll post my final delegate projection, (including the state-wide delegate count, and make any updates to the Indiana numbers as they come).