With 10-11 days to go it would be good to get some predictions on NC out so that we can compare later on May 7th.
NC should not be too difficult to predict. We already have results from GA, SC, VA and MD. NC is right in the middle. It is also a growing state. in 2000 it had just over 8Mil people and by 2006 it gre an amazing 10% to over 8.8 Mil. So unlike PA and OH it's not stagnant. VA where Obama did great also grew 8-9% in the same 6 years. MD where Obama did great as well but not the the extent as in VA population grew 6% from 2000-20006.
Georgia population in that time frame grew by 7.7% while GA where Obama did best grew 14% in just 6 years.
So the growing south and south east is favorable to Obama as it is a growing and economicaly vibrant part of the US. On the other hand OH and PA grew by a mere 1% during that period.
Now for the meat:
MD Obama 61% HRC 36% White Vote (WV) was 53% and Obama got 42% of WV
Kerry won MD v Bush by +13 and AA vote in 2004 was 24%. AA are 29% of voters in MD so they undervoted. They were 37% of the Primary 2008 vote. They also undervoted here because that is only a 28% increase over population percentage. This can be explained that MD is a safely democratic state where a lot of WV vote for democrats. 28% increase is the important number to remember as well as Obama getting 42% ow WV.
VA Obama 64% HRC 36%. WV was 61% and Obama won the WV with 52%. Bush won VA in 04 by +8. AA are just under 20% of population in VA and they were 21% of the 04 VA voters. So VA AAs tend to vote in proportion or even slightly higher. In the 2008 primary they were 30% of the vote so the voted 50% over, more that MD 28%. this can be explained by AA voting slighlty more in VA and there also being fewer WV for democrats in VA.
North Carolina went for Bush +12. AAs are just under 22% of the population and they were 26% of the voters in 2004 GE. So AA in NC sure like to vote.
South Carolina is a bit strange because Edwards was still in. AA are 29% of the population. They were 55% of the primary vote so they voted 89% over. Bush beat Kaerry by +17 so most WV are republican. AA were 30% of population so they voted in 2004 in proportion. Obama got 24% of WV but HRC got only 36% and Edwards won WV at 40%. It is safe to assume that if he were not there Obama would get at least hal of that vote fo a totla of 42% of WV.
GA 29% AA population and Buch won 2004 by +17. AA vote in 2008 primary was 51% or 76% over population. Again WV are mostly pro republican. Obama got 43% of WV.
So waht does this mean for NC. Likely the AA turnout will be less that +89% in SC but more than +50% from VA. Obama's WV floor will be 40%. He will liley do a bit better than 40% but let's assume 40% in case the Wright thing hurt him some. AA vote may be 65%+. That would put AA at 36%.
So Obama wins 90% of AA for a total of 32.5% and he gets 40% of WV (and others) (40% X 64%) for a total of 25.6%.
Obama's total will be 58.1% at the minimum. to HRC 42% at the maximum.
Turnout will be 100% of Kerry vote are AA will be energized as well as independents and cross over Republicans. Turnout will be 1,500,000 +/_ 100K.
This will be a net + pop vote for Obama of 240,000. I am very confident he will pick up more Popular vote net from NC than she did in PA as well as delegates. Delegates +20 for Obama.