What do we know about the Guam Caucus? Try as I might, it's been hard to find much about what is going on in Guam. I'll summarize what I've found thusfar...
Guam has 5 superdelegates. They are...
Madeleine BordalloUS House Delegate from Guam. I have found no endorsements for the 2008 race but in 1995 she did donate $1000 to the presidential campaign of William Jefferson Clinton. During her push for [109th]: Guam World War II Loyalty Recognition Act Bordallo petitioned Senator Clinton for assistance on the Senate side. The bill eventually failed to become law. In this cycle both Clinton and Obama have voiced support for $126 million in reparations to those who suffered under the Japanese occupation. If you are wondering why the US should pay, because the US forgave Japan's war debts a while ago. I'll go out on a short limb and predict she'll vote for Clinton unless Obama blows out the caucus.
Antonio Charfauros is Guam DNC Party Chair and has not declared for who he will vote. He donated $1500 to Walter Mondale for President in 1984. As of February he had yet to be courted by the Obama campaign, while Clinton had made several calls. There's not much to go on here, so I won't call it.
Taling Taitano is Chair of the Guam Humanities Council and the Guam Board of Accountancy, DNC committeewoman and apparently, part of "Team Hillary" in Guam, so it should come as no surprise that she is pledged to Clinton. She is quoted in Marianas Variety as asserting, "Hillary supports war reparations and we're working with her to get press releases on health care and how it's going to impact Guam, as well as Compact Impact monies owed Guam, and of course, the military buildup"
Cecilia Mafnas is Guam DNC vice chair and pledged to Clinton.
Robert Underwood, Former delegate to US House and current president of university of guam remains uncommitted but rumored to lean Clinton despite one of his former subordinates in charge of the Guam Obama Field Office
So amongst the superdelegates I'm going to optimistically call it 4-1 for Clinton.
Now on to the 8 pledged 1/2 delegates, whose names are reported in Marianas Variety and are as follows...
Female Obama Pacita C. Aguon, Dolores P. Blas, Hope A. Cristobal, Chelsa D. Muna-Brecht, Skylia Faye Schacher and Therese M. Terlaje
Male Obama Benjamin J.F. Cruz, Derrick Muna-Quinata, Jesse L.G. Perez, Francis Santos (Former Senator), John C. Terlaje, Mitchell F. Thompson and Ernest S. Wusstig
Female Clinton Arlene Bordallo, Rena K. Borja (cochair of Clinton Guam operations), Isabel D.S.A. Lujan (Becky), Morna M. MacDonald-Rector and Cecilia F. Mafnas
Male ClintonChris Michael Duenas, Thomas J. Fisher, Derrick B. Hills, Matt Rector and Dennis G. Rodriguez, Jr.
It seems, like Rhode Island, that politics run in the family as many surnames are the same as past, present and future guamanian elected officials and party leaders (those names are in italics). So what to make of this. I'm going to assume that politics works the same way as it does in that Rhode Island, which means name recognition and prior service trump policy. That being the case, I predict the following winners.
Female Delegates Arlene Bordallo, Cecilia F. Mafnas, Isabel D.S.A. Lujan, Hope A. Cristobal
Male Delegates Francis Santos, Benjamin J.F. Cruz, Chris Michael Duenas, Matt Rector
That works out to Clinton 5 delegates (2.5 votes) and Obama 3 delegates (1.5 votes).
So the final split will be Clinton 6.5 and Obama 2.5 delegate votes from Guam.
Do you disagree? It's speculative I know, but what the hell, now I know more about Guamanian politics than I ever thought I would :-P