Recent polling from Indiana shows a Clinton lead, with the opposite true in North Carolina. See the recent post by Kos for the numbers on NC (12-14 points), and see SUSA for IN (9 points).
Why then is the Obama camp sending out emails like this:
Next week, we have the opportunity to close out this race and secure the nomination for Barack -- but there's another deadline coming up even sooner.
Financial reports for April will be filed this Wednesday at midnight. The media pundits and Washington insiders will be watching the results and judging the strength of our campaign by the money we raise.
But what's most impressive about our movement is that our funding has come from grassroots supporters like you. We've never accepted donations from Washington lobbyists or special interest PACs. Instead, more than 1,500,000 ordinary people have stepped up to own a piece of this campaign.
Now most of that was a request for money, so if you can spare a dime now is the time, but why this:
...we have the opportunity to close out this race and secure the nomination for Barack...
Given the polling it appears that they will split NC and Indiana, with Obama picking up more delegates and padding his popular vote lead.
How does that end the race?
If the delegate math mattered to HRC she would have left after PA, wouldn't she?
Or is falling farther back in the popular vote and delegate math enough to make her concede?
And then there is this Obama email from a few days ago:
This coming weekend -- and especially next Monday and Tuesday -- supporters across the country will be coming to Indiana to knock on doors, make phone calls, and Get Out The Vote for Primary Day on May 6th. They need your help to reach as many Hoosiers as possible.
I know this is a big decision. But what's brought our campaign where we are today is that so many people -- including many who never thought they'd get involved in politics in their lifetime -- have taken that leap to help us succeed.
The e-mail was a request to physically go to Indiana to help with GOTV. Or call using the website.
They are pushing for a massive GOTV effort in the urban parts of the state, no doubt, but I don't see that as erasing a +9 lead in the polls for Clinton.
I'm just baffled by the framing of NC and Indiana. Someone please explain this to me like I'm a four year old.