Disclaimer: I am an Obama supporter, but tend to be a pessimist\realist more than an optimist with these things.
The polls that have come out this week seem to show that Obama is in trouble. First, a "Victory" on tuesday to me means that Obama wins NC by at least 10, and loses Indiana by no more than 5. In other words, if he wins NC by 10+ and only loses in Indiana by 5 then I'll be happy. This seemed like a likely scenario just a week ago, but events have happend that are beginning to make me worried.
First, let's start with North Carolina, a state that he should do well in. Rasmussen came out with a poll today that showed him leading by double digits. However, he has lost 9 points since their last poll. Similarly, PPP came out with a poll today showing him leading by 12%, but that's down from the 25% lead he had just a week ago. Lastly, Survey USA, a polling outfit that seems to be better than average, shows him ahead only 5%, down 4% from their previous polls. On top of all that, all these polls were conducted before the endorsement of the NC governor and before all this new hoopla over Rev. Wright. The main reason he's losing support in North Carolina is that his lead among white voters is plummeting.
I know that right now the avg. of the polls in North Carolina show him ahead by double digits, but what worries me is the trend of these polls. All of the polls have a trend of Obama losing ground quickly.
As for Indiana, there seems to be a consensus among the polls that he is either tied or losing. Again, a poll from SUSA shows him down by 9%, and PPP has him down by 8%. Granted, a polling outfit named "Howey Gauge" has it tied, but I've never even heard of this pollster.
My conclusion is that I hope this slide in the polls ends soon. If the trend continues, then it's possible that he'll lose Indiana by 10%, and maybe only win North Carolina by 5%.