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Disclaimer: I am an Obama supporter, but tend to be a pessimist\realist more than an optimist with these things.

The polls that have come out this week seem to show that Obama is in trouble. First, a "Victory" on tuesday to me means that Obama wins NC by at least 10, and loses Indiana by no more than 5. In other words, if he wins NC by 10+ and only loses in Indiana by 5 then I'll be happy. This seemed like a likely scenario just a week ago, but events have happend that are beginning to make me worried.

First, let's start with North Carolina, a state that he should do well in. Rasmussen came out with a poll today that showed him leading by double digits. However, he has lost 9 points since their last poll. Similarly, PPP came out with a poll today showing him leading by 12%, but that's down from the 25% lead he had just a week ago. Lastly, Survey USA, a polling outfit that seems to be better than average, shows him ahead only 5%, down 4% from their previous polls. On top of all that, all these polls were conducted before the endorsement of the NC governor and before all this new hoopla over Rev. Wright. The main reason he's losing support in North Carolina is that his lead among white voters is plummeting.

I know that right now the avg. of the polls in North Carolina show him ahead by double digits, but what worries me is the trend of these polls. All of the polls have a trend of Obama losing ground quickly.

As for Indiana, there seems to be a consensus among the polls that he is either tied or losing. Again, a poll from SUSA shows him down by 9%, and PPP has him down by 8%. Granted, a polling outfit named "Howey Gauge" has it tied, but I've never even heard of this pollster.

My conclusion is that I hope this slide in the polls ends soon. If the trend continues, then it's possible that he'll lose Indiana by 10%, and maybe only win North Carolina by 5%.

Originally posted to boomersun on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:44 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

    •  Obama needs (9+ / 0-)

      to stress the Patriot Corporation Act, which he co-sponsored in the Senate. It's a great piece of legislation and just the kind of progressive patriotism and populism that can help him win white working class voters.

      Now here is a Patriot Act everyone can get behind. It's called the Patriot Corporation of America Act and it rewards the companies that don't screw their employees and weaken the country by moving the jobs to China and elsewhere.

      In these troubled times, doesn't that sound like common sense? Government policy presently works in opposite ways. It literally assists and subsidizes the disloyal free riders who boost their profits by dumping their obligations to the home country. It's called globalization. Establishment wisdom says there is nothing politicians can do about it.

    •  Time to turn the page (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pikkel, converse

      Sending Prayers for Senator Barack Obama, right now he needs those more than anything.

      by Muzikal203 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:02:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is reality (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bigred39, Eirene

      Ignore the polls? Why? Maybe things are this bad. If Obama wins a squeaker in NC and Hillary wins comfotably in NC, this race will have reached an important threshold. The double win Obama needs to end this thing next week is looking more and more doubtful.

    •  Why worry? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Overseas

      Obama can lose from here on by 5 and still be nominated. He has already won.

    •  Whistling Past the Proverbial Graveyard (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      YoGo

      If you don't believe Wright bashing Obama(That's what it is)isn't hurting Obama big time, you may have a HUGE surprise in May awaiting you. I was a county co-ordinator for Obama's senate run in 2004 and strongly support his nomination. BUT our goal is to defeat John McCain with the best team we can choose. There are many things I dislike about Hillary, but they pale in comparison with even the thought of McCain continuing the destruction of what's left of Democracy. Think Supreme Court nominations from a McCain. Think December 2000's overthrow of our Constitution by 5-Fascists on the Supreme Court. I can live with a Clinton/Obama ticket or any that presents the best team to defeat McCain. Our nation cannot survive a third Bush term. If Obama cannot weather the Wright controversy, Hillary should be the nominee. If Obama was not on the ticket, McCain will be the next POTUS.

  •  Actually, he gained ground in IN. (21+ / 0-)

    Most folk'll never eat a skunk, but then again some folk'll. Relentless!

    by ablington on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:46:17 PM PDT

    •  I will add, (19+ / 0-)

      hand wringing diaries achieve jack shit unless youre a troll. Lets just work hard and wait for the primaries.

      Most folk'll never eat a skunk, but then again some folk'll. Relentless!

      by ablington on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:47:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  yeah, SUSA had her up 4/14 double digits (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      maxomai, jj32, kefauver, verily
    •  Yeah (4+ / 0-)

      I think the original author is assuming that the poll that had Obama at +5 last week was actually a SUSA poll. SUSA conducted that poll, but they used a completely different methodology -- it measured registered voters, not SUSA-model likely voters.

      According to the SUSA model, Obama is down nine among likely voters. That's actually a gain of four points (I think, don't have the previous poll for comparison.)

    •  For some reason this (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      highacidity, MAORCA

      person writing the diary seems to remind me of the

      gloom and doom songs of old...

      It's the End of the World as we know it

      And

      I lay my head on the railroad tracks
      Waiting for the Double E
      But the train don't come by here no more
      Poor Poor Pitiful me.
      Poor Poor Pitiful me, oh these boys won't let me be. Lord have mercy on me, Woe Woe is me.

      Obama talks about hope and optimism. We should follow his lead. Look at the math folks !

      Please Let Primary Season be ending soon. We have McBush ahead. As Noah said: I built this damn ark, get your asses in here or suffer the McRain.

      by wishingwell on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:55:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wrong (4+ / 0-)

      actually you're wrong, it would benefit everybody here to discuss all of this rationally without name calling or accusations, so that we can learn what to do with it:

      A new SurveyUSA poll in North Carolina shows Sen. Hillary Clinton dramatically closing the gap with Sen. Barack Obama in the final days before the primary.

      Obama, who has led in the survey by roughly 10 points for most of the last two months, now leads by just 5 points, 49% to 44%.

      Key finding: "White voters are key. Since January, Clinton had led among Carolina whites by 14, 19, 17, 22 and 23 points. But today, suddenly: 31. In the Research Triangle, Clinton is up 9 points, week-on-week; Obama is down 3; a net swing of 12 points to Clinton."

      A new SurveyUSA poll in Indiana finds Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama, 52% to 43%, essentially unchanged since the beginning of the month.

      Key findings: "Clinton's advantage is steady among women, steady among voters age 50+, and steady in Southern Indiana, which borders Kentucky. Obama is gaining ground among voters under 50, where he leads for the first time; among liberals, where he leads for the first time; in Northern Indiana, where he is tied for the first time; and in Central Indiana, where he has cut Clinton's lead in half. Clinton, by contrast, is making steady inroads among Independent voters."

      •  SUSA in NC... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ablington, DaNorr

        ...has been an outlier since the start of the campaign.  While their recent result does show a narrowing of the race, they were calling it a 9-10 point Obama lead when all the other polls had him up 15-20.  Who's accurate?  We shall see, but the consensus at Pollster.com shows Obama still comfortably ahead by double-digits.

        And calling SUSA's results for IN "essentially unchanged" is more than a little disingenuous, since Clinton's lead in that poll has dropped to nine points from sixteen the last time they polled.

        •  SUSA an outlier? Oh, really? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Eirene, StuHunter

          Has SUSA been an outlier? Well, let's check it out.

          In PA, SUSA's last poll had Hillary 50, Obama 44. The final numbers were 54.6% to 45.4%.

          In Ohio, SUSA's last poll had Hillary 54, Obama 44. The final numbers there were 54.2% to 44.1%.

          In Texas, SUSA's last poll had Obama ahead, 49 to 48. Hillary won 50.9% to 47.4%.

          I'd say that's a pretty good track record for an outlier.

          I'm not saying that SUSA's past accuracy guarantees its future accuracy - and I have a hard time myself believing that Hillary could really be this close in NC despite the governor's endorsement and the Wright mess - but a record like that shouldn't be so quickly dismissed.

          •  You can't pick the data set like that YoGo. (0+ / 0-)

            That's like saying when SUSA is correct they are correct--it's Carvillesque.

            Is he losing ground among whites?  Does it accurately reflect AA turnout?

            She's closing a gap.  Just as he did in TX, OH and PA.

            Yet she still won, and there is no reason to think that Obama will not carry North Carolina, especially as 38% of the electorate will be AA's that he probably carries at a 9/10 clip.

            We have wasted history like a bunch of drunks shooting dice in the men's crapper of the local bar. --Charles Bukowski, Notes of a Dirty Old Man

            by Kab ibn al Ashraf on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:51:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I just questioned the assertion (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              StuHunter

              The claim was made that SUSA's results shouldn't be trusted because of its bad track record. I pointed out the obvious that SUSA's track record has been very good and that it was wrong to say it is unreliable. If that's "Carvillesque," so be it. I'm not sure how else one can disprove an assertion unless one points to the facts. By the way, I didn't say that Hillary will carry NC and neither did the SUSA poll. I agree with you that Obama will win NC.

      •  Im not wrong. (0+ / 0-)

        The SUSA polls are tightening in IN. They may not have moved since last time, but they were more in CLinton's favor earlier.

        Most folk'll never eat a skunk, but then again some folk'll. Relentless!

        by ablington on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:22:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not Wrong (0+ / 0-)

          no..they weren't. Obama (used) to be ahead in his neighboring state..but it's really immaterial anyway. He's not ahead now and after all the Wright crap this week, he'll be further behind. Obama should have come out sooner and denounced Wright or at least tried to reign him in after Friday's PBS interview. This whole mess has made Obama look ineffectual and without backbone. That's just fact and it's the reason that his polls are going down. Now you can attack me for being a realist or you can recommend to others here or maybe even within his campaign, as Im sure that they do read these posts from time to time, what can be done about the stumble before he goes into a free fall.

  •  Thanks for your concern, asshat. (8+ / 0-)

    Now shut up and work.

    Wake me when the campaign starts, but let me sleep if it's Hillary.

    by jkennerl on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:46:20 PM PDT

  •  They could both be ties... (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tikkun, mayan, Overseas, bernardpliers, soms, voila

    and they still won't prevent his nomination.
    But they won't be ties. He'll win NC.

  •  Be calm (5+ / 0-)

    I think you are right. Barack has been under siege for weeks now. But he has 7 days to turn things around.

    We can help him. Get on on those phones! Write a letter to the editor. If you can get to North Carolina or Indiana, go knock on some doors.

    He needs our help right now.

    Rev. Wright interviewed by Bill Moyers: Watch the whole thing! Pass it on!

    by jenontheshore on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:46:49 PM PDT

  •  Some demographic adjustment (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    slinkerwink, soms, Makesmeralph

    But of course, this means we need to work harder. Call or donate or walk if you can.

  •  Resulting in... (9+ / 0-)

    Obama retaining his lead in pledged delegates, states won, popular vote and national lead against McCain.

    I can see why you are worried.  That would be devastating.  

    ;-)

    "Help!!! I'm being Enlightened!" - TCFKNCS's avatar

    I always wanted to quote an avatar.

    by RhymesWithUrple on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:47:02 PM PDT

  •  Obama has won the nomination (13+ / 0-)

    the only thing at stake here is whether it becomes official in a week or a month.

    Phonebank and Relax

    May 6th 2008: IN Insignificance Day

    by stevej on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:47:03 PM PDT

    •  It'll be either Tuesday... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Overseas

      ...or May 20th.  At that point, he'll have crossed the barrier and clinched the pledged-delegate race (and most likely the popular-vote metric by any standard other than Hillary's "I got 313,000 votes in Michigan and Obama got zero" fantasy-world scenario).

      At that point, it will be up to the superdelegates to decide whether enough of them really want to overturn the will of the voters, and whether they're ready to absorb the backlash if they do.

  •  too much hype!!! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    slinkerwink, soms

    Just relax and let things unfold rather than creating such hypes..

  •  He's having a rough week. (7+ / 0-)

    Seriously, this has been one of the worst news cycle he's experienced since the beginning of the campaign. Plus, Hillary gets a bump from her PA win. Now that Obama has denounced Rev. Wright and the Supers keep trickling in, the narrative will change again.

    Stop the drama, vote OBAMA!

    by Kelly of PA on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:48:02 PM PDT

    •  Obama showed a lot of strength and (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Eirene

      perseverance in the press conference today. Remember when Hillary said "How many angels are there on the head of a pin ?" He would have been crucified had he said that. He has been put through much more rigorous scrutiny than she has. You don't see him whining about being piled on.

      I just hope to God the American electorate sees him for who he is - a true visionary and the best candidate for Commander in Chief.

      It will be interesting to see if the media will be more gentle on him today. I suspect they will. Yesterday they were ruthless.

      •  I had a geometry teacher in high school (0+ / 0-)

        who spent an hour one day on those angels on the head of a pin. She also believed there were ghosts in the classroom doorknob. She and Hillary looked nothing alike, but there is a resemblence somehow.

        The Justice Department is no longer a credible defender of the rule of law or the Constitution.

        by Overseas on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:30:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Babbling about your worry on the internet (6+ / 0-)

    will help turn the tide.

    Or maybe it won't.

    How about, like, doing something?

  •  Okay so let's remember SC (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, dogdad, soms

    See SUSA was way  off on that and off on MO. They simply underestimate his support among AA's.

    Could Hillary be closing the gap in NC? Of course.

    Is Hillary going to win in NC? Of course NOT. It is going to be a win by more than 10 points and you can count on it.

    We are there for you when we need you. -The Clintons

    by oak510 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:49:05 PM PDT

  •  No, I do not think he should be bashed (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ratador, soms

    and everyone is going to have to dig even harder to overcome this. He is just speaking the truth.

  •  Chill Chill. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mayan, soms

    If you are so hyped by polls i doubt your realism. Dont worry much, I think he will win NC regardless of what polls say. Heck he might also win Indiana. Indiana si much different demographically than OH, or PA. So, just chill let the ball rolls. Don't get yourself ingulfed into media narrative.

    Obama always expected this primary to be much closer and thats what is happening. Supers are endorsing him every day. Look at #'s of supers for Obama vs. Clitnon since super tuesday. Pal they know the internals and they are not ralliying behind Obama just out of nothing. Just relax and may be distract yourself from these MSM hooplaa. They are just pathetic loosers in name of journalist.

    I am a realist and I believe Obama has a huge edge over Clinton in this race.

  •  I don't know what numbers (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tikkun, ratador, soms

    you've been following, but the RCP Average has had a steady 12-15 point lead for Obama in NC for the last 30+ days.  He's going to do just fine, especially now that he has cut ties to Jeremiah Wright.  That will be a huge boost to his campaign, and finally put this non-issue to bed.

    "We are one people, all of us pledging allegiance to the Stars and Stripes. All of us defending the United States of America." -Sen. Barack Obama

    by Obamaniac08 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:51:07 PM PDT

  •  Another concerned troll post (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mayan, Shahryar, soms
    Why do Repubs think we will fall for this crap?
    All they are doing is making themselves look stupider. Oh, yes. And showing everybody why NOT to vote for a Republican.

    Republicanus non carborundum

    by azureblue on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:51:07 PM PDT

  •  Hillary is doing some damage (5+ / 0-)

    and actually doing more to benefit McCain than the RNC could ever hope for....that said, Obama WILL win the nomination.

    "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." - JFK

    by moose67 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:51:17 PM PDT

  •  Is HRC calling herself Hilly Ray Clyrus now? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cskendrick, mayan, Greg in TN, soms

    In order to get more popular?

    And of course, her alter ego, Tonee Montana.

    St. Ronnie was an asshole.

    by manwithnoname on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:51:43 PM PDT

  •  For HRC (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mayan, hhex65, chicago minx

    margins matter in her wins...for Obama ,there is only winning, no matter the margin. Give me two 1 point wins next tuesday and I am very pleased and this race is over.

  •  Short form, he can quit if he loses NC. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, mayan, nrafter530, Eirene

    That would require a complete breakdown in AA support or a very pure rejection on the part of white Democrats which would be even worse for him nationally.

    more money, more votes, more delegates and more class means more electable.

    by cskendrick on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:53:24 PM PDT

    •  this is ridiculous (0+ / 0-)

      NC is not SC.  Independents are allowed to vote in this primary ad while
      some of them are creative/progressive, around here, most of those
      people are Democrats.   OUR independents really are much more likely
      to be that way because they really do lean somewhat Republican.
      If they perceive Hillary as the more moderate candidate (which makes
      very little sense, given Obama's rhetoric about reaching across the
      aisle), then Obama will not net  win independents voting in our primary.
      And again, since this is NC and not SC, African-American voters are not numerous enough to swing this  by ourselves.
      When we nominated Harvey Gantt twice for Senate, it was because
      no member of the white party establishment actually WANTED to take
      on Jesse Helms.  We had given it our Absolute Best Shot with Jim Hunt
      (the most successful NC Democrat who ever lived, the one who was
      so popular that he got them to amend the constitution so he could
      serve FOUR terms as governor, where no one before had served
      more than ONE) in 1984, and they basically concluded correctly that
      Helms was an immovable object.  There was no one, in those primaries,
      to play the role that Hillary is playing now, namely, to mobilize white
      moderates and get them to vote in the primary.   Racist Democrats who
      wanted to vote against Gantt simply had no one to vote FOR, who had
      any credibility.  Easley's only qualification in 1990 was having been
      a successful prosecutor in a small coastal county.  He therefore wound
      up as Attorney General, later.   In 1996, Gantt's white opponent was
      a carpetbagging retired  pharmaceutical executive, whose company
      manufactured AIDS drugs and was one of the most pro-gay corporate employers in the state (despite the fact that the corporation, while he
      was on the board overseeing its PAC donations, had given to Helms).
      This executive had credibility NEITHER with longtime Democratic
      activists NOR with white blue-collar Democrats who were struggling economically.

      Now, given what this "bitter" demographic has historically thought about Hillary
      Clinton, it is hard to see them embracing her.  But her credentials as
      a moderate Democrat are real, and for better or worse, for this demographic,
      SHE IS SIMPLY THE GREAT WHITE HOPE.
      I repeat, the only time you have seen a black candidate win a statewide
      primary for a major office here is where no such hope existed.
      So despite having been 20% ahead here a few weeks ago,
      Obama could actually LOSE North Carolina.
      But any suggestions that he will lose the nomination as a result
      are ridiculous : He is NOT going to lose IN THE WEST.
      And that will be enough.  I repeat, do the math.
      He is about 160 pledged delegates ahead now.
      Even if he loses NC, it won't be by more than 5 delegates.
      Even if he loses Indiana, it won't be by more than 10.
      He is going to
      lose  Kentucky, but it only has 60 delegates;  he is going to
      win Oregon, which has 65.
      He is going to
      lose West Virginia, which has 39 delegates, but he is going to win both
      Montana  and South Dakota, which have 23+24=47.
      I don't have anything to counterbalance her big win in Puerto Rico,
      but still, best case (for her), she canNOT HOPE to cut his lead even IN HALF,
      LET ALONE overtake him.   THE MATH PROVES that worst case, he is ahead
      at least 80 delegates when the smoke clears, and I personally am willing to
      bet that it will be at least 100.  100 vs. 80 may be an important psychological
      barrier, but 80 is not small enough to prevent the civil war.  Superdelegates
      WILL think twice about overturning 80.

      "You can't nice these people to death."-- John Edwards

      by ge0rge on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:36:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  You, my friend (9+ / 0-)

    are a concern troll.  I just went through all of your comments since you registered, and all I see are comments about how Obama is going to lose.

    Yes, we can see all of your comments and your user ID number that shows you signed up some time in mid-April.

    Anyone have a good recipe?

    •  Yes concern trolling (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mayan, soms, doctorgirl

      is all it is. Gloom and Doom, end of the world bullshit based on little evidence.

      Enough people with the Hand wringing and head hanging and defeatism.

      Please Let Primary Season be ending soon. We have McBush ahead. As Noah said: I built this damn ark, get your asses in here or suffer the McRain.

      by wishingwell on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:57:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The SUSA NC poll worries me (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    YoGo, lams712, synductive99

    5 points falls within my margin of hand wringing.

    •  Wonder (0+ / 0-)

      I wonder if the SUSA NC poll was taken before or after the governor's endorsement and Rev. Wright's National Press Club speech.

    •  If the SUSA NC Poll Worries You (0+ / 0-)

      Then Check da CrossTabs  and CHILL!

      The only age group that Hillary has a lead over Obama in NC are those older than McCain! The SUSA sample was BIASED in favor of Hillary because 21% of their sample was 65 years or older, yet only 12% of NC was in this age group in 2006.

      NC is not PA, especially in age distribution. The fact that older voters are Hillary's "margin" in NC should come as a surprise to nobody.

      Lets just appropriately thank the diarist for his/her concern (/snark) and un-wring our hands.

      I'm a YellaDawg Democrat...no matter how hard Hill & Bill try, I will not vote for McBush

      by DaNorr on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:01:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama coming out against Wright (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    democrattotheend, wishingwell

    is worth a couple of million dollars. Thanks Obama. I wouldn't be able to give you that much money. Well Cheers, and lets hope things will turn around in the next days.

  •  The polls are all over the place...just keep (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lams712, ratador

    plugging along. It is VERY hard to predict likely voters here in Indiana. We have a lot of new voters and people who don't tend to vote in the primary who will come out next Tuesday. Meanwhile, it's an open primary and who knows how many repubs will vote Democratic.

    I canvassed and met a guy who worked for McCarthy in 68, will vote for McCain in the Fall but voted for Obama early. Go figure. I  just thanked him for his vote and went on my way!

  •  Please Doom and Gloom does no good (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mayan, kefauver, soms

    action does.

    Please Let Primary Season be ending soon. We have McBush ahead. As Noah said: I built this damn ark, get your asses in here or suffer the McRain.

    by wishingwell on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:56:05 PM PDT

  •  April 29, 2008 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, mayan, soms

    North Carolina-Obama-50.3  Clinton-40.0 (Obama) +10.3

    Indiana-Clinton-44.2  Obama-46.4  (Clinton) +2.2

    Source is here.

  •  Don't obsess about polls (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kefauver, ratador

    Barrack's had a tough stretch in the media.  

    The real story is that all the pressure is on Hillary.  She's more than 150 delegates behind.  Even if she is able to pull off a W in IN and/or NC (and I wouldn't count Barrack out), the proportionate allocation of delegates will prevent her from getting within 100.  That means she needs to basically run the table in the primaries and get 2/3 of the superdelegates that remain.  

    The media likes to spin the "comeback kid" newsstory, but the primaries are over.  

  •  The numbers game: 35% (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    empathy, ratador

    All Obama needs to win NC is 35% of the white vote. So in other words, if he repeats his performance in PA, he wins here. I also believe that if he performs the same with young voters as he did in PA in Indiana he will win there. If he gets over 40% of the white vote in NC, it is a blow-out win. I think he will be ok.

    The truth starts with you

    by tonydimarzio on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:01:00 PM PDT

  •  His underperfomance in Pennsylvania last week (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lams712

    was discouraging.

    No, he was never supposed to win there, but it should have been closer.

    And it gave Hillary something to crow over until the next primaries.

  •  funny....because... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    frankzappatista, dlh77489, converse

    less than an hour ago I amused myself by posting the following, in a different diary:

    "first off, I'm a huge Obama supporter. But lately I've been very dismayed by [fill in talking point]. Now I think he can't get elected. He has run a [insert apparently complimentary adjective] campaign and deserves credit for how far he's come. But if we are to defeat John McCain we need more of a fighter, one who doesn't [insert talking point #2]...." - from the Clinton campaign manual for aspiring new Kos posters.

    now compare that to this diary, which starts out:

    Disclaimer: I am an Obama supporter, but tend to be a pessimist\realist more than an optimist with these things.

    I swear, there must really be a template! I encourage everyone to look for these telltale signs that seem to appear in so many of these concerned diaries.

  •  He was so far ahead in NC because of demographics (0+ / 0-)

    Just like Clinton in PA. That'll always tighten up as they close. Nothing to sweat about.

  •  Obama will win NC by double-digits. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ratador, jenontheshore

    I'd be utterly shocked if he didn't.  And I live here.

    Hillary = Palpatine
    -2.75/-1.38

    by jkddude on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:03:29 PM PDT

  •  It's about delegates (0+ / 0-)

    not about polls.hillary would need to win both by upwards of 70% margins just to make inroads on his delegate count. She's also got major money problems, so any effort to drive up votes only drains the cash box faster. Add to this that Obama just changed the media narrative today in parting company with Wright. that means he will get the free media and her message will not penetrate. She is now on the sidelines, holding a tin cup in hand, wearing a sign that says "Will Work For Change"

  •  She's not going to get 65-70 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dogdad

    in ALL of the remaining states.  Cheer up.

    Northern Illinois University: Kate's and Matt's parents meet, 1976

    by chicago minx on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:11:04 PM PDT

  •  Hillary is gaining ground, she hasn't had any (0+ / 0-)

    setbacks lately.

    •  exactly. If she wasn't gaining ground after (0+ / 0-)

      a week like this for Obama, she should just quit right now.

      The media did its best to end Obama this week, so of course Hillary will get the numbers closer.  Meanwhile her headlines are all about her big win, her gov. endorsements, her 10 million dollars.  The numbers just reflect that.  If Barack can win a newscycle I think he can widen NC again.

      "You know, when you go to vote in Wisconsin, it's 5 degrees out." - Barack Obama

      by krwlngwthyou on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:48:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  "Disclaimer" my ass! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    frankzappatista, dogdad

    CONCERN TROLL

    First Diary; read his CONCERNED COMMENTS

  •  wake me up when something important happens (0+ / 0-)

    Of course she is gaining ground.  She isn't going to lose 65-35 like she did in Virginia.  Mainly because she is actually competing here.  

  •  So Hillary (0+ / 0-)

    put out the memo for all shills to make a big push?  I think it's too late unless the objective is the destruction of the Democratic Party this cycle.

    Don't confuse this confusion with disorganization, because we're not that organized yet. -5.13/-3.38

    by Grannus on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:18:04 PM PDT

  •  i don't think you're a concern troll... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dogdad, Eirene

    (well, i guess you could be since this is your first diary and once you posted a comment called "Fox calls it for Clinton!" why were you watching Fox, hmmmm?)

    but i just think like many of us you are more invested in this than you ever imagined you could be.

    not too long ago i would have freaked out over this just like you.  but i truly believe that she could win every single contest left and he will still be the nominee.

    the reason:  buidling up a big lead doesn't then invalidate you from having earned the championship, just like having an amazing second half doesn't entitle your opponent to then claim victory even if s/he came up short.

    if she could surpass his lead, that would be different.  but she can't, so the minute the supers hand it to her over him, she becomes the most unelectable Dem in history.

    end of story.  we just have to hold on and ride it out.

    (and if you are a secretly trolling HRC supporter- well enjoy these polls and "trends," because your gal is toast!)

    OBAMA: articulate AND clean!

    by carpediva on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:21:27 PM PDT

  •  Just sent $50 more to Barack!! f the polls (0+ / 0-)
  •  PPP today (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Eirene

    has more bad news for Obama in Indiana- Clinton up 8.

    If you refuse to vote for OUR PARTY'S nominee in November, the blood of a thousand back-alley abortions will be on your hands.

    by dhonig on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:25:25 PM PDT

  •  Who was expecting a smooth ride (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rccats3

    for the first serious Black candidate to take on the Clinton's who defeated the Rs twice who in turn defeated the D elites twice with a guy who can't even form a sentence?

    A guy that took the 50 state strategy seriously as the Washington elite dismissed it out of hand and still do?

    He has run a campaign  against two aligned opponents, one establishment nuclear democrat and one establishment 100 year conventional war GOPer . Did anyone expect they were just going to roll over and let this young guy smack the shit out of them?

    They are way past kitchen sink stage. His opponents are hurling anything that has weight even if it's dog shit that accidentally picked up off the ground.

    This is the Scene in the Monte Python movie where the knight has dismembered his opponent limb by limb until he is pulling himself along with his torso with blood spurting out and screaming "We'll call it a draw". The only thing he has left are his supporters throwing banana peels hoping the Knight will slip and fall.

    I suspect the Obamas were some of the few who didn't expect this to be a quiet walk in the garden. It's going to get worse too. Expect it. Deal with it. If you want Obama to win, then you have to have his back. In a race which he is winning against all odds you don't let your ego do the talking after you supported him becuase he does something that is disagreeable to you.

    That to me is an example of Democratic Disunity. Believe it or not the only Civil war that's going on in this country is the one created by the media and the Washington insiders who find it much more secure to see us divided and critics who like to see themselves in print and on TV.

    The Clinton's watched Rove take there use of it to a new level and now they are trying to take it to a new level.  

    Shrug it off. Flip em off and Move the fuck on. Just remember, Clinton would give up Chelsea to slave traders to be in the position Obama is in. Not only that, she blames everyone but herself for her predicament.  

    Support Col Hackworth's watchdog group for the troops with money or a sign

    by Dburn on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:27:45 PM PDT

  •  Actually, in this case a victory is a victory (0+ / 0-)

    And to think I use to like the Clintons...

    by hollywood politcaljunkie on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:27:47 PM PDT

  •  Believe me (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Eirene

    Believe me, I am not a "troll". Just because I point out the fact that Obama has been slipping in the polls does not make me anti-obama. In fact, i hope it just encourages everyone to get more involved in the campaign, like it has me.

  •  Don't worry, Obama threw Rev. Wright under.... (0+ / 0-)

    ....the bus and drove it back and forth over him a few time to boot. That should help him with white voters over 60 who fear "scary" black people like the Rev. Wright.

    As it says in the DailyKos frontpage:

    Now, however, as Wright goes around the country performing as a caricature of what many white voters will perceive as "The Scary Black Man," Obama has an obligation to repudiate Wright.  Failing to repudiate Wright risks allowing the GOP (and until then presumably the Clinton campaign) to use Wright as the Black proxy with which to scare off white voters.  White people who aren't solid GOP voters aren't personally scared by Obama, but they could be scared away from Obama if they're afraid that as President  he'll bring a bunch of "Scary Black Men" along with him in to the White House. (emphasis added)

    TRUTH is irrelevant, how white people PERCEIVE things (and by extension, how "mean" the GOP might be to us) is what counts .

    Same as it ever was.

    "...if my thought-dreams could be seen, they'd probably put my head in a guillotine...." {-8.13;-5.59}

    by lams712 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:30:21 PM PDT

  •  concern troll (0+ / 0-)

    nothing to see here...move along.

  •  Not True (0+ / 0-)

    Some people here seem to be very simplistic in their analysis of polls. Why dont you, and others who think all may be lost, look at the internals of a poll before making grand statements..

    SUSA has only 2 percent of voters in North Carolina as early voters? Give me a break. There have been reports everywhere that early voting in that state is huge, and even PPP has it at 14 percent with Obama dominating 2 to 1 so far. Obama will likely bank enough early votes that Clinton would have to win huge on election day (the reverse of California) to win.

    Also, the differences in the Indiana polls is entirely in voter models in regards to African Americans.  The SUSA and PPP polls are underestimating AA turnout in my state, and a pollster I talked to today here in Indiana estimates it'll be closer to 20%.  

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