I apologize if someone has already posted this (I haven't seen it) but Zogby released the first general election poll I've seen that includes Nader and Barr as candidates. Details below the fold.
This poll was conducted after the PA primary and after the Wright interview by Moyers. Original link here.
UTICA, New York - Republican John McCain trails Democrat Barack Obama by three points in a national general election test, but leads Democrat Hillary Clinton by 10 points, the latest Zogby Interactive survey shows.
The online poll, conducted April 25-28, 2008, shows that Obama retains 80% support among Democrats, compared to just 66% of Democrats who said they will back Clinton against McCain, the survey shows. Against Obama, McCain wins 11% of the Democratic support, while he wins 10% support against Clinton. In the McCain-Clinton race, 12% of Democrats said they were undecided, compared to just 4% of Democrats who were undecided in the McCain-Obama race.
Asked who they thought would be the next President, McCain led the way with 45%, compared to 40% for Obama. Just 11% said they thought Clinton would be the next one to occupy the Oval Office. Only 20% of Democrats said they think Clinton will be the next President, compared to 63% who believe Obama will get the job done.
Interestingly, 1% said they think former vice president-turned-Nobel laureate Al Gore will be the one to succeed George W. Bush in the White House.
The survey included 7,653 likely voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/- 1.1 percentage points.
General Election Match-ups
McCain
44%
Clinton
34%
Nader
3%
Barr
4%
Not sure/someone else
16%
General Election Match-ups
McCain
42%
Obama
45%
Nader
1%
Barr
3%
Not sure/someone else
8%
Asked which candidate - McCain or Clinton - most shares your values, 48% said McCain, compared to 37% who said Clinton, with 15% not sure. Between McCain and Obama, 48% said McCain shared their values, compared to 44% who said Obama most shared their values. Among Democrats, 9% were more likely to say McCain more reflects their values than Clinton, and 12% of Democrats said McCain is closer to their values than Obama.
For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/...
I know, General Election polls don't mean a whole lot at this point, but I am still encouraged by this data. Zogby's track record has been mixed throughout the primary season, but it was recently very accurate in the PA primary.
What I am taking from this is:
- Doom and gloom about Obama's chances in the general is not warranted
- Barr will draw Republican support from a decent percentage of those not happy with McCain.
- Nader isn't much of a spoiler if Obama is the nominee, but could be an issue if Clinton is the nominee. Particularly, I could imagine this to be the case if people feel the Democratic nomination was not fair in the end, or to those unhappy with Hillary's primary strategies.