News from Insider Advantage has a poll showing Hillary with the lead over Obama, 44-42.
There's just one problem - the demographics are all wrong.
The crosstabs show that just 143 out of 571 people in the poll were African American, or 25%. Considering that 22.5% of the state population is black and blacks are virtually all democratic, it stands to reason that the black vote would be closer to 35% to 50% of the vote.
Furthermore, blacks in the poll are 64-20 Obama over Hillary in the poll. As has been seen in numerous states, Obama always over performs figures that show Hillary gaining that large a share of the black vote. So while there is a large percentage of undecideds in this poll (generally a good sign for Hillary in other states) it's important to note that a disproportionate percentage of them are black and that blacks are undersampled to begin with.
The real thing to note is that Obama's losing whites 54-34. If Obama loses whites by only 20% in North Carolina, he wins the primary. So I'm not worried about North Carolina - just pleased that this will help with the expectation game and hopefully make May 6th a knockout blow.