Skip to main content

(This is a repeat of my diary from last week, entitled "Hillary Clinton will concede two weeks from today" -- which prediction I feel still applies regardless of the media focus of the last few days)

This is over.

It has been over since the February landslides.  If you remember the the "leaked" memo from the Obama campaign with their post-Super Tuesday projections, http://www.politico.com/...  Obama has not lost anywhere he did not expect to lose.  He has gotten more delegates than he had projected in virtually every state.

So what are the Supers waiting for?   Up until now, many of them are waiting out of courtesy to the Clintons, who have a long history in the party, and have appointed many of them to one position or another over the years, or given a favor or two.  But they know that she will not win.  

Unfortunately, given the political calendar, there has not been an occasion for another "big" Obama win for about 2 months now.  But now North Carolina is the biggest state left on the calendar, and Obama will win it, as he has always been expected to.  And then it will be clear that Obama will win the pledged delegates, and every real measure of the popular vote, whatever happens in the few smaller remaining states.  

And then the Supers will either flock en masse to Obama, or will signal to the Clintons that they intend to do so shortly.  Either way, Clinton drops out shortly after North Carolina.  This will take about 48 hours after the North Carolina primary or one week from today.

Now, if Obama also wins the Indiana primary the same day, I would revise this prediction, and say that Clinton concedes within 24 hours, which means her campaign only has 6 days left.  

Originally posted to smithnewyork on Thu May 01, 2008 at 08:52 AM PDT.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site