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SurveyUSA. 4/28-5/1. Likely voters. MoE 3.9% (4/4-6 results)

Obama 50 (52)
Clinton 44 (44)

Among whites:

Obama 50
Clinton 44

Yeah, Oregon is mostly white. And Obama is winning it.

Funny that, I've just spent weeks hearing about how Obama can't win white people. So I'm a bit confused.

Also, Oregon is ranked 23rd in the nation in per-capita income. That ranks below Ohio. In fact, none of Oregon's counties rank in the list of the nation's 100 richest counties. And while Portland's Multnomah County is one of the state's wealthiest counties, Obama actually does far better outside of Portland, were people are poorer and whiter.

Funny that, I've just spent weeks hearing about how Obama can't win lower-income voters. So I'm a bit confused.

You know what's going on? White people west of the Mississippi like Obama fine, those east of the Mississippi have a problem with him. That's why (generally speaking) Obama runs far stronger in the western part of the country, despite having smaller to non-existent black populations.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:05 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Says something about racism in this country (36+ / 0-)

    and who has problems and who does not.

    I think you'll find that the northeast has the biggest "problem."


    Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
    I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
    -Spike Milligan

    by polecat on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:06:52 AM PDT

  •  yeah, but oregon doesn't count... (18+ / 0-)

    because there are hippies there.

    Clothes make the man. Naked people have little or no influence on society -Mark Twain

    by gooners on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:07:30 AM PDT

  •  Obama can't win... (33+ / 0-)

    Blue Collar Voters
    Swing States

    Phew, good thing this country's voting population is over 50% black and under-30.

    It's the only explanation for Obama's success thus far.

    How's Barack stacking up against McCain? Find out at Obama-nate the Map!

    by Skulnick on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:07:57 AM PDT

  •  Let's face it... (8+ / 0-)

    White racist voters don't like Obama.  Unfortunate, but the polls bear it out.

    Now can we stop acting like all poor white voters are the same?

  •  Oregon is white, but also (14+ / 0-)

    latte drinking prius-driving liberals. And being liberal is, of course, a bad thing for a Democrat to be.

    OEF/OIF vet
    I've been called a left-wing extremist because I absolutely oppose torture. I can live with that.

    by jabbausaf on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:08:02 AM PDT

  •  Neglecting the Doesn't Matter Effect :) (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Glacial Erratic, paintitblue

    more money, more votes, more delegates and more class means more electable.

    by cskendrick on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:08:14 AM PDT

  •  Not all white people... (10+ / 0-)

    east of the Mississippi have a problem with him.  He will take NY easily in November.  Yes, we gave the primary to Clinton but she is our Senator.  

  •  haven't you heard? (6+ / 0-)

    All the money and votes for Obama is apparently coming from the "black vote".  Just ask the traditional media!

    "circular firing squad" rhetoric = IOKIYAAD

    by pullbackthecurtain on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:08:19 AM PDT

  •  new rule (11+ / 0-)

    Obama can't win white people who don't like brown people.

    I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.

    by Ickey shuffle on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:08:56 AM PDT

  •  I Agree That the "Obama Can't Win Poor / White" (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Tom Paul, echatwa, ck4city, Donise, ArtSchmart is bullshit...

    But your suggestion that he has a problem with Whites East of the Mississippi kind of plays into Clinton's suggestion that he can't/won't win the states we need to close the deal (PA, OH, FL, MI).

    •  No, it's not bullshit (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      It's got a lot of statistical support.

      According to Pew, Clinton leads Obama by 40 percent among white working class voters, and it's getting worse.

      Of course, Clinton now has trouble winning black voters.

      As for Kos's point, yeah, if Obama wins Oregon, then it's a big deal given the large percentage of whites, but he hasn't won yet.

      •  It has statistical CORRELATION (5+ / 0-)

        But it sort of presumes that the White people who aren't voting for Obama are ONLY doing so because either A) He is not white or B) Clinton is.  It also implies that not voting for someone in a primary means you're less likely to vote for them in the General.  I don't see working class Democratic Whites or African Americans actively or passively supporting McCain under any circumstances.

        •  Kentucky (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          naus, abraxas

          Then why does Clinton win KY easily in matchups vs McCain, but Obama loses to McCain in a landslide?  

          Why, other than race, does Clinton run so much better -- like more than 20 points better -- than Obama in KY?  The people who will vote Clinton over McCain, but McCain over Obama in KY are precisely white working class Dems.  

          •  As a former Kentuckian, I think I can say with... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wishingwell, dus7

            ...some confidence that there are deep racist veins that run throughout that state.  And, if generationally they've moved beyond racism, they're still full of bigoted views.  I don't think all Kentuckians are racist or bigoted but a great number of them I believe are.  Look at the history of Kentucky back before the Civil War.  It was a slave state.   It's not hard to figure out the states if you look at the history in my opinion.

            O/T slightly:  My Kentucky roots were established in 1824 and the only thing that gives me any kind of comfort in terms of my ancestors is that my great, great, great grandfather was a preacher and so too many of his offspring.  Preachers and pastors didn't own slaves.  That still doesn't mean jack about their views but...anyway, I'm rambling.

            This God forsaken view of racism and bigotry in Kentucky has everything to do with why I'M a FORMER Kentuckian.

            •  The Kentucky Derby is elitist. No? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              The turtle was tight in its shell for a long time. But at last its legs waved in the air, reaching for something to pull it over. -Steinbeck (Grapes of Wrath)

              by Ma Joad on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:39:31 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Whatever. I grew up in Kentucky. (0+ / 0-)

              And what you say about racism exists in every other state, white and black.  

              In your attempt to impute racism into everything, you seem to forget that Kentucky strongly BOOMED under Clinton.  Look at Lexington in 1992 and then compare it in 2001.  Kentucky today has one of the country's best education systems.

              Maybe, just maybe, the people in Kentucky are voting for Clinton because of that?

              •  As did I. Not only did I grow up in Henderson... (0+ / 0-)

                ...and spent time in neighboring counties, I spent my two years of National Guard time in Central City, Kentucky, I have family who still live in Henderson, Eddyville, around Barkley Lake and Kentucky Lake, and up near Elizabethtown and Louisville.  So, I'm not attempting to impute Clinton's Strong showing to racism; I'm merely pointing out that the racism, or at the very least bigoted views, runs deep in that state of which I know a Little about.  So, in that vein, I would imagine I'm closer to the truth when I say I believe that a vote for Clinton in that state would probably be a vote against Obama rather than For Clinon, but hey, that's my personal opinion and this is America, we all get to throw them out there for anyone to listen to or to ignore.

                And, to answer your question on whether or not the voters link Clinton with their education system?  I believe that Kentucky State Govenor Paul E. Patton is credited with improving Kentucky's higher eduation system, not the Clintons, or at least only indirectly.  

                No hard feelings, that's just my opinion.

          •  because she doesn't (2+ / 0-)

            "win KY easily in matchups vs McCain."

            SUSA Apr. 15th shows McCain beating Clinton 48/46, and Obama 63/29.

            Obviously Clinton does better than Obama v. McCain here, but I doubt either candidate will take KY in the general.

            I was of three minds,
            Like a tree
            In which there are three blackbirds.

            by looty on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:46:46 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  So are Obama and Clinton (0+ / 0-)

            Identical except for their skin color and gender?  Are you saying there's no other reason people would choose one over the other?

          •  NO WAY (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            awnm, deadinthewater, abraxas, tash5809

            I am sorry but there is NO way KY goes blue in NOV, Jesus could come down and run as a dem and that state would stay red.

        •  Some Dems and Indies will go for McC, (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wishingwell, paintitblue

          but nothing like the percentages that are reported in polling in the heat of the primary conflict.  Once the battle now is done, and the values we share are brought back to the fore, there'll be a drop in those high "Mercy-me-I'll-never" numbers.

      •  Obama should cruise to victory here in Orygun (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        We're a completely vote-by-mail state. Ballots should start arriving today or tomorrow. I don't think it'll even be close... Unless the vote count is hacked:

        Says Jan White, Oregon Voter Rights Coalition: "Oregon ballots are counted on optical scan machines and the votes are tabulated using trade secret, proprietary computer software provided by private companies."

        Rich people: God bless us. -HRC

        by DFH on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:27:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  That is an irrelevant metric (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        The only poll result we should care about is how Obama stacks up with white working class voters against McCain.

        I suspect that after we control for the small proportion of racists, that Obama would do just as well as Clinton in this demographic against McCain.

        How people vote in a contested primary doesn't really track with the GE.

    •  Thing is, though, (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Subterranean, tomjones, beltane

      how many of the eastern white voters like Clinton better but will vote for Obama over McCain? It wouldn't surprise me if it were a large percentage. Not all, but a lot.

      Lousy Bowlers for Obama

      by paintitblue on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:18:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I agree. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      We need to be more nuanced in our assessment of whites in the older states.  There's a conservative, white pool of Democrats in the East, who held onto the party affiliation their fathers and grandfathers had before them, as well as the progressives (or latte-drinkers, or elitists, or whatever) in the party.  Out west, where traditions haven't had so much time to fossilize, the conservatives are simply Republicans.  That's probably oversimplifying it, too, but does it get us closer?

      •  Rockefeller Republicans (0+ / 0-)

        NY was famous for having liberal Republicans and very liberal Democrats.  Everything in NY leaned left.  But as the Reagan Republicans took over the party, more of the liberal GOP ended up in the Democratic party.  So there is a part of the Democratic party (and a rather large part) that is socially progressive but economically conservative and see Clinton as more favorable.  But they will vote for Obama in November.

  •  That's right. (8+ / 0-)

    Blame the Mississippi River. That poor, poor river that can't defend itself....

  •  Huh? (10+ / 0-)

    KOS yesterday: "As other polling has shown in the primary head-to-heads, Obama is currently bleeding white support"

    Today: "Funny that, I've just spent weeks hearing about how Obama can't win white people. So I'm a bit confused."

    Yeah...I'm bit confused too!

  •  West Coast White People don't count (7+ / 0-)

    Except California

    Barack Obama will be President, John Edwards will send George W Bush to The Hague

    by vanguardia on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:09:28 AM PDT

  •  Kos- I'm curious (8+ / 0-)

    Are you going to keep the delegate count at the top until we have a winner?

  •  Oregon is progressive, so we like the progressive (22+ / 0-)


    Well, let's put it this way:  Most of the I-5 corridor is progressive, and that's where most of the people are.

    I'm actually surprised it isn't a little more for Obama, we'll have to fix that.

  •  "She flies with her own wings" (7+ / 0-)

    Best state motto, ever.

    Peter DeFazio, why haven't you endorsed Obama, yet?


    After silence, that which comes nearest to expressing the inexpressible is music. - Aldous Huxley

    by Throwing Stones on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:10:08 AM PDT

    •  Interesting history (3+ / 0-)

      “She Flies with Her Own Wings” was adopted by the 1987 Legislature as the state motto. The phrase was written by Judge Jessie Quinn Thornton and translated into Latin for the territorial seal in 1854. “Alis Volat Propiis” is the Latin translation. Chapter 848, 1987 Oregon Laws, most clearly describes the events that led to the choice for the state’s motto in 1854.

                  “Relating to the state motto; amending ORS 186.040.
                             Whereas the spring of 1843 found the Oregon County politically unorganized and its inhabitants in disagreement over whether their future lay beneath the wing of Britain or that of the United States; and
                             Whereas on the second day of May in that year of 1843, the settlers of the Oregon Country gathered at the settlement of Champoeg and voted, by division of those present, to form a provisional government dependent upon neither Britain nor the United States, but dependent only upon the inherent political authority of its own people; and
                             Whereas the Oregon Territorial Legislature, on January 18, 1854, recognized this seminal event in the history of the Oregon Country by adopting as the motto of the Oregon Territory the Latin phrase, “Alis Volat Propiis,” which, in English, means “She flies with her own wings”; and
                             Whereas the motto appropriately reflected the independent character of the Oregon pioneer settlers who established their own government, …”

      In 1957, the motto was changed to “The Union.” According to former Senate historian Cecil Edwards, “The Union” goes back to earlier years in Oregon when citizens “were torn over the issue of slavery.”1

      Senate historian Cecil Edwards, Secretary of State Barbara Roberts and former state Senate President Jason Boe were the sponsors for the 1987 Senate Bill 1036 which proposed changing the motto back to “She Flies With Her Own Wings.” Supporters of the bill felt that “She Flies With Her Own Wings” reflected Oregon’s tradition of independence and innovation

  •  So is the CW that any Obama win under (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Allogenes, pullbackthecurtain

    10% is a crushing loss for him still operable?

    Rabindranath Tagore-"Bigotry tries to keep truth safe in its hand with a grip that kills it."

    by joy sinha on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:10:58 AM PDT

  •  I think this illustrates the more progressive (5+ / 0-)

    attitudes of those residing in the west especially those along the coast.  

    I have lived in Seattle and the midwest and noticed a marked difference in those proclaiming to be democrats.  Race does not come into play nearly as much in the west.

    "Sell not virtue to purchase wealth, nor liberty to purchase power." B. Franklin

    by istari5th on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:11:22 AM PDT

  •  I say Obama wins OR by comfortable margin (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLKRR, wishingwell, echatwa, paintitblue

    More than 6.

    Northern Illinois University: Kate's and Matt's parents meet, 1976

    by chicago minx on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:11:37 AM PDT

  •  Another weird thing (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, Allogenes

    I'm from VA, where Obama won. Virginia at one time was the capital of the Confederacy.

    Obama didn't fare so well in Ohio - a northern state that suffered horrible casualties in the Civil War.

    One would've thunk it would've been the other way around.

    This ain't no party. This ain't no disco. This ain't no foolin' around!

    by Snud on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:11:41 AM PDT

  •  Oregon must be full of.... (5+ / 0-)

    Crazy Elite types

  •  Percentage of black population seems to matter (9+ / 0-)

    Didn't Poblano show that Obama does best where there us either a large black population or a very small black population?  Looking as far back as 17th century Virginia, it has been a strategy of the elite (not the latte sipping elite - the land owning elite) to pit poor blacks and poor whites against each other.

    A white working class guy in Bethlehem feels more threatened by a black working class guy in Newark, and that shows up in his voting preference.  Whereas the white working class guy in Wyoming or Oregon really has no sense of conflict with blacks.  That's been the conservative (whether Dem or GOP) pattern of divide and conquer going back to Bacon's Rebellion.

    You can also see a pattern of racial hostility in Appalachia dating back to Andrew Johnson.  Johnson hated white planter elites and blacks with equal vigor.  He represented the Unionist sentiment in Tennessee, West Virginia and Kentucky.  And his spirit is alive and well today.  Poor Obama gets hit for being both black and "elitist".

    •  Nah (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Subterranean, bara, ArtSchmart

      That was the early take, but beyond the states with a high African-American population, the single greatest driver of the Obama vote is education level.  The New York Times had an excellent flow chart that was front paged here the other day.

    •  I thought it was because of more recent politics (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      In Ohio, at least, most AA are in cities, not spread out in the countryside and even urban/rural conflicts that might not be at bottom racial, get a certain tinge because of the demographic divide. Also, I agree with Poblano's analysis that where there already is racial politics in a state, it's easy to get the Clinton/Obama race to fit the existing narrative relating to race.

      I was also recalling that in Richard Rorty's Achieving Our Country, he describes a rift (which he dates to 1964 and the Gulf of Tonkin incident) that divided the Old Left that was mainly concerned with organizing people (especially unions) and economic justice and the New Left which was mostly concerned with reducing the "sadisms" of racism, sexism, and identity exploitation. Both good, worthwhile projects, but the former left a lot of pretty rancid bigotries alone and the latter appeared to favor people of color and leave the old white folks behind (ripe for Republican exploitation).

      A lot of white folks in old union bastions are, I think, on the Old Left side of that divide and see Obama as being on the other side. What they don't see is that Obama's approach to politics could be the synthesis that reconciles and closes that rift.

      Happy the man and happy he alone--he who can call today his own ... John Dryden

      by ohiolibrarian on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:42:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Civil war hangover? (4+ / 0-)

    Maybe because the west never had any real part of the slavery issue, they just don't fall into the black/white trap as easily (Watts notwithstanding).  I know here in GA it informs everything that happens at all levels of government, in press coverage, and party affiliation.  What a ridiculous situation.

    Forget about the pursuit of happiness; that way lies grief. Concentrate on the happiness of pursuit.

    by kimtcga on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:12:40 AM PDT

  •  Yeah, some journalist (0+ / 0-)

    wrote an article about this a while back. Out west they love Obama, but the east is more hesitant. Not sure why. There aren't really that many blacks in these western states for there to be a problem. They are more progressive.

  •  I heard there (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLKRR, Subterranean, jj32, dus7, oscarsmom

    may be working clas whites in Oregon.

    "How can I go off and join FRELIMO, when I've got 9 more payments on the fridge?" Mrs. Conclusion Monty Python

    by Sansouci on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:13:33 AM PDT

  •  i thought we've been through this (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Subterranean, Cynic in seattle

    it has something to do with racial tensions that exist in multi-racial environments- the difference between lily-white idaho and cincinatti-area ohio. winning is still good news, but kos has answered his own question before.

  •  New Rasmussen NC poll: O- 49. C-40 (8+ / 0-)

    He's dropped two points since last poll but  he's doing better than he was on March 6.

    Good to see that the daily tracking poll seems to have stabilized.

  •  hey if I wanted to go to Oregon to help (4+ / 0-)

    would I just contact the Obama team?  I live in CA and have been dying to help out in a state...

    I could donate a couple days of my time and drive up there...

    just wondering the best way to go about this.


  •  I'm going to Oregon to for Obama next week (7+ / 0-)

    I expect a BIG win for Obama in Oregon, I hope it's a big enough win to knock Hillary out of the race.

    "... the negativity, for which she is mostly responsible, does nothing but harm to her, her opponent, her party and the 2008 election." -NYT

    by Lefty Coaster on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:14:34 AM PDT

  •  Utahn's Like Obama (5+ / 0-)


    I think you are right.  Utah (west of the Miss.) likes Obama, and I think his support here has only grown since superTuesday, and this is among Fox watching, very conservative Mormons in Utah county where I live.

    I think there are several factors that continue to strengthen his appeal here. First, Utahn's are drawn to his honesty and integrity.  Second, and this is probably true for large parts of the country, is his stance on Iraq.  I am in the heart of Republican country and people here are tired of the war.  I am a physician and take care of a lot of military families, and they all want the war (really it they see it as an occupation rather than a war) to end and their family members to come home.

    There you have it.  An honest man who will put the people above the special interests and will bring our troops home is very appealing in Utah.

    Granted, Obama probably will not win here, but I wouldn't say it is impossible (depends on who McCain picks as a VP), but his effect down ticket can be huge for our local Democratic party.

    •  Did the treatment of Romney... (0+ / 0-)

      by the right-wing religious nut cases in the GOP hurt Republicans in Utah at all?

    •  Effect... (0+ / 0-)

      I'm wondering what percentage of the people who voted for Obama in Utah were LDS?

      I have a feeling the democratic primary basically selects for all the non-LDS people in Utah, which I believe are a minority.

      •  Probably Most... (0+ / 0-)

        Obama is quite popular amongst Mormons.  Utahn's, and Mormon's in particular, greatly dislike Huckabee who is seen as anti-Mormon, and don't care much for McCain either.

        The Clinton's though are the least popular in Utah.  Utahn's seem them as liars and crooks.  Integrity is a very important value to Utahn's, and Obama is seen to have great integrity, Clinton none.

        Most Utah Obama supporters I know are Mormon (I live in Happy Valley, Utah County, 80%+ Mormon).  And there are many Mormons who are continually more impressed with Obama as the election moves on.

  •  Not that I'm a prize, but... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RoscoeOfAlabama, paintitblue

    after Edwards conceded, he won me.



    ...Operation Rota is Closed... New Blog Coming Soon With Pictures!...

    by nowheredesign on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:15:22 AM PDT

  •  Not just an East-West divide (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    decembersue, Subterranean, yamanote

    Obama basically does better than Clinton everywhere, including with white voters, except in the "white south" (e.g., OK, MO, AR, TN, KY) and Appalachia (IN, OH, PA, WV, KY).  So, he also does better in the upper Midwest east of the Mississippi (MI, WI), New England (CT, ME), and the non-Appalachian Mid-Atlantic (NJ, DE, MD, VA).

  •  Dont worry, Kos, I'm sure some from (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oscarsmom, ggwoman55, Joe Beese

    the Clinton campaign will be along to tell us why Oregon doesnt matter.

  •  On the record...I'm white and I support Obama (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, oscarsmom, mommaK, echatwa, paintitblue

    So does my white middle-class wife and many of my white middle-class friends.

    "No his mind is not for rent, to any god or government. Always hopeful yet discontent, he knows changes aren't permanent. But change is." -Neil Peart

    by Boisepoet on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:16:10 AM PDT

  •  And now for some Lewis Carroll (sort of) (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Allogenes, Texanomaly

    I have two versions


    'Twas spinning, and the slimy Pubs
    Did gyre and gimble in the wabe;
    All mimsy were the plutocrats,
    And the pundits outgrabe.

    "Beware the GOP, my son!
    The jaws that lie, the claws that catch!
    Beware the Dubya bird, and shun
    The frumious Coultersnatch!"

    He took his truthful sword in hand:
    Long time the 'phantine foe he sought--
    So rested he by the Taxcut tree,
    And stood awhile in thought.

    And, as in uffish thought he stood,
    The GOP, with eyes of blame,
    Came whiffling where the Wal-Mart stood,
    And burbled as it came!

    One two! One two! And through and through
    The truthful blade went snicker-snack!
    He left it dead, and with its head
    He went galumphing back.

    "And hast thou slain the GOP?
    Come to my arms, my beamish boy!
    O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!"
    He chortled in his joy.

    'Twas spinning, and the slimy Pubs
    Did gyre and gimble in the wabe;
    All mimsy were the plutocrats,
    And the pundits outgrabe.



    Twas brillig, and the friends of Rove
    Did gyre and gimble on game day:
    All tipsy were the plutocrats,
    And the Vice Prez did play.

    "Beware the Cheneywock, my son!
    The lips that snarl, the lies that catch!
    Beware the Dubya bird, and shun
    The frumious Coultersnatch!"

    He took his digi-cam in hand:
    Long time the blust'ring foe he sought --
    So rested he by the Taxcut tree,
    And stood awhile in thought.

    And, as in drunken fugue he stood,
    The Cheneywock, with eyes of blame,
    Came whiffling through the tulgey wood,
    And fired shots as it came!

    One, two! One, two! And through and through
    The Digi-cam went snicker-snack!
    He left it red, and with its cred
    He went galumphing back.

    "And, has thou punked the Cheneywock?
    Let's post pics now, my beamish boy!
    O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!'
    He chortled in his joy.

    Twas brillig, and the friends of Rove
    Did gyre and gimble on game day:
    All tipsy were the plutocrats,
    And the Vice Prez did play.

    more money, more votes, more delegates and more class means more electable.

    by cskendrick on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:16:42 AM PDT

  •  Oregon whites not like Ohio Pennsylvania whites (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Totally different kinds of people. Were there lots of mines and heavy industry in Oregon. There is logging but that's small compared what was in PA and Ohio. It's apples and oranges. And how many people in Oregon are recent arrivals for the environment. Tell me what city in Pa or Ohio is as liberal as Portland. I don't think there are any. A lot of the whites in Oregon are "obama whites." You know what I mean.

    Sorry I have to run to the Senate floor to abolish torture.

    by bten on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:18:14 AM PDT

  •  So... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Is Oregon filled with a bunch of "Worthless white n*****s"?

    The Democratic Party - Finding new and interesting ways to lose the Presidency since 1968!

    by RichM on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:18:29 AM PDT

  •  And what is east of the Mississippi? (0+ / 0-)

    The southern states and Applachia, home of racism.

  •  Obama win white votes (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    in states without large minority populations.

    in state without large minority pops he loses the white vote.

    Cicero : If you're going to back a policy do it wholeheartedly. You'll win no points for timidity.

    by PoliMorf on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:19:08 AM PDT

    •  I think this may be illusory (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dus7, tash5809

      There are other factors that could explain these states--for example, he was saying last night in the interview on KO that in the big states he doesn't have the ability to introduce himself well to everyone, the way he was able to in Iowa for example.  

      This would correlate with the "incumbent effect"--low-info voters go with the name they know.

      Never give up! Never surrender!

      by oscarsmom on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:51:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  We get it Kos, Your're An Obama fan! (0+ / 0-)

    When and if Obama get the nomination, I would like to hear from you Kos, how you intend to use your site to bring back all the Hillary supporters to get on board with Obama.  You utter lack of consideration for the aftermath is going to come back and bite you in the ass.

    •  Yah, and Hillary's utter lack of consideration (5+ / 0-)

      for the aftermath has nooooothing to do with the vitriol here and everywhere.... yah.  
      I want to know what Hillary plans to do to convince her followers to get on board with Obama after he wins the nomination.  I want to know how she pivots from saying that even McCain is better (remember the 'McCain and I have experience, Obama has a speech' crap?), and saying that he is a christian 'as far as I know', and saying that he wasn't ready at 3am, and saying that he is naive to want to re-establish diplomatic discussions with our enemies......  how is she saying everything right out of Karl Rove's playbook and then having any kind of possiblity to support Obama in the general?  Huh?  Aftermath indeed.

    •  Pressure Clinton to be less negative (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      biscobosco, wishingwell, oscarsmom

      And you will get your wish.  If you do dirty rotten things and people call you on it, it is not their fault.  You are being judged on your behavior.  You are not a victim if you do the crime.

    •  Are you serious? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Been to MyDD since, say JANUARY? You want to talk about blatant disregard for a candidates supporters? The level of vitriol coming from Clinton supporters, and from Sen. Clinton herself has been vomit-inducing.

      Sure, some Obama supporters get pretty nasty sometimes, but in sum it's clearly the Hillary people who should have a lot to answer for when this thing is over.

      However, being the good Democrats that we are, and following in Obama's example, once this thing is over all will be forgiven. But not necessarily forgotten.

  •  Uh, no Kos (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    biscobosco, Allogenes

    Obama won a majority of whites in Wisconsin, Virginia, and I'm sure other states east of the Mississippi. The key is Obama does better in states that are almost entirely white or heavily black. In the former there are no racial tensions and in the latter blacks make up such a large percentage of Dem primary voters that puts him over the top (especially the Deep South).  

  •  A serious point (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Obama does great in states that are all-white (less than 5% black)or states that have really large black population (more than 20% black).  The states int the middle, with distributions more representative of the census data as whole are where he struggles (OH, PA etc.)  

    "Unrestricted immigration is a dangerous thing -- look at what happened to the Iroquois." Garrison Keillor

    by SpiderStumbled22 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:20:04 AM PDT

    •  I don't think that's quite right (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ma Joad, Cynic in seattle

      he won Delaware pretty handily, (by 11 %) and it is about 18 % black...

      I think this diary as pointed to in comments above shows a more accurate picture.

      In areas where white voters are more educated (87% with  high school diplomas) He does screamingly well, no matter income level. Hillary does screaminly well in white counties where the high school diploma rate is less than 78%.  They split the middle numbers based on a few other factors.

      That is a telling statistic.

  •  Can't Understand? Easy.. (4+ / 0-)

    Obama can't win whites that will never vote for a black man.  These folks are voting for the white woman who they will run over on their way to McCain in November if she is still around

    The Truth has a distinctly Liberal bias...

    by moondancing on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:20:14 AM PDT

  •  re: (0+ / 0-)

    "I've just spent weeks hearing about how Obama can't win white people. So I'm a bit confused."

    Awe Kos.. why is the site including you so hell bent on spinning? Respectfully, it indicates a lack of confidence in your candidate. There are pockets of the country (small ones granted, more like neighborhoods) where I could win this election. You get the picture.

  •  Because you can never get enough rant :) (0+ / 0-)

    more money, more votes, more delegates and more class means more electable.

    by cskendrick on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:21:35 AM PDT

  •  Oregon and North Carolina are Obama's two (4+ / 0-)

    firewalls. If he wins both states, then I think the supers will lean towards him.  If he splits, then he provides Clinton a real opening to make her case that she is the better candidate.  If he loses both, I think supers will conclude that Obama is not the choice for the top spot and will urge Hillary to pick him as the #2.

    I take issue with the idea that racism is the reason why Obama performs well in certain areas and less well in others.  The real answer, in my view, is that his message connects with certain regions better than others, and his challenge as a candidate is to work harder to adapt his message to his audience.  

    Working class whites do not quite understand the call for a 'new politics' or 'change' because it doesn't provide specifics about how they are going to make ends meet. The message also tends to lack muscle, toughness or tenacity to do what it takes to get the job done.  Hillary hits those notes well.  Obama's message appeals to areas and demographics have a progressive or independent political tradition. Hillary has not fared as well in such areas because of Obama's strengths as a candidate and also because of 2 votes:  the IWR and Kyl-Lieberman.

    Hillary has to win some road games to win the nomination, and that means winning Indiana (a border state to Illinois), and finding a way to pull out a win in North Carolina and/or Oregon.  Should be a fun month.

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:23:00 AM PDT

    •  I agree with you about racism. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Subterranean, ArtSchmart

      Working class whites would vote for Colin Powell overwhelmingly over a white candidate who came across as an idealist and intellectual.

      When civilizations clash, barbarism wins.

      by Allogenes on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:38:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That is the Republican thing though where (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Allogenes, Cynic in seattle

        Non racist working class whites who listen to Rush in the workplace all day long or like Fox Noise would vote for Powell because he is approved by the Neo con faction.

        Some people who spout racist bullshit who I have come across, love Condi Rice and Colin Powell.  It is the oddest thing, it has to be that Wingnuttia trumps racism with those folks.

        Please Let Primary Season be ending soon. We have McBush ahead. As Noah said: I built this damn ark, get your asses in here or suffer the McRain.

        by wishingwell on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:01:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Puerto Rico is HRC's last firewall (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      If she wins it, she gets the nomination.  Becausee Puerto Ricans count.

      "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

      by Subterranean on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:13:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's education (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Obama communicates like an intellectual, and those who have not received a formal college education are not familiar with that communication style.  They also tend to be less well informed, because they are less likely to have gotten into the habit of reading.  I bet you would find that HRC's support correlates strongly with the degree to which a voter relies on TV for their news.  Those who are educated are more likely to read their news online or in newspapers, magazines, or books.  

      To be clear, this is not about intelligence, but about the communication style and information scavenging strategies acquired in college.  It's a subtly different way of looking at the world, which isn't even conscious.  

      "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

      by Subterranean on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:22:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh fabulous (0+ / 0-)
        Kos says I'm a racist, and you say I'm an ignorant one at that? Good Lord. Way to piss on your fellow dems.

        I am a reform Democrat.

        by rusty on Fri May 02, 2008 at 12:21:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  you are probably a minority. (0+ / 0-)

          But the facts indicate that Hillary massively wins white counties where the high school graduation rate is less than 78%, and Obama massively wins the white counties where the high school grad rate is greater than 87%..

          It appears that the more educated white counties prefer Obama..

          There may be another separate factor which corrolates with High school graduation rates, and predisposes people to vote for Obama, but I am not sure what that is.

          •  That's not the issue (0+ / 0-)

            I don't dispute the numbers. I mean, that would be kind of... ignorant. :-)

            I took issue with Subterranean's offhand-dismissive characterization of high-school educated people as people who don't read and get all their news from TV, and are therefore more ignorant. I do appreciate that he went to great pains to say he doesn't think we're necessarily dumb. That was kindly of him.

            I have a problem with that assessment. It doesn't square with my experience of people. I, for example, on a survey would have to check "some college" if it was there, or "high school graduate" if not. I don't have a college degree. I did spend three and a half years in a well-regarded college, though. I know plenty of college educated people who get all their news from TV and never crack a book voluntarily. I know high school graduates who don't own a television and consume books voraciously.

            Far more than that, I could make a pretty damn good argument that the more educated you are, the more likely you are to simply agree with Authority or Conventional Wisdom, especially the wisdom of your social group, because you're probably more sensitive to social pressures. Educated people read the chattering class magazines and parrot their "wisdom," whereas the less educated tend more to talk to their friends and hammer things out among themselves. The elites are in a bit of a bind here, really, because do you want to be the racist who doesn't vote for the black man, or the misogynist who doesn't vote for the woman? I guess we can see which faux pas has been declared fauxer.

            Obama does not communicate at a greater than high school level. In fact, I haven't seen him say anything that was the least bit difficult to follow or digest. He's kinda, you know, famous for it. That's just nonsense.

            I could make all those arguments above, but you know what? I could pick holes in them all too. None of them are ultimately necessary.

            Obama does well among educated and affluent whites because he speaks to them, and their dreams of everyone coming together around the National Campfire to sing songs and heal our wounds. Hillary does better among the poor whites because she's talking about the shitstorm they're finding themselves in in the waning years of the Bush disaster, not about how it would be great if we all were nicer to each other. That's all. It's not subtle or hidden. It may just be too obvious to see from this close up.

            I am a reform Democrat.

            by rusty on Fri May 02, 2008 at 02:07:51 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  do you think that educated poor whites also (0+ / 0-)

              have "dreams about everyone sitting around a campfire etc"
              Now who is simplifying?


              I am a educated White who supports Obama despite the "unity" message, which I find simple and cloying.  I support him mostly because I think Hillary is far more in the bag to the insider lobbyist game,(taking donations from lobbyists) and more of a centrist on economic issues. (for example Nafta support is greater) But the main thing for me was the constitutional scholar thing.  I think he is smart and ethical, and I like the  community organizing thing, because I have been involved in non-profit orgs, and I like someone coming from that mentality.  That and Iraq.

              so: kumbayah- no
              other stuff - yeah

              Though I do think there is a greater complexity to the unity  message. even though it rubs me the wrong way.  the underlying goal I think is to undercut the right wing noise machine, which survives because of its hate-focus. If you can get people to stop for a minute from a 24-hour cycle of outrage, hatred, and fear of terraists, you have a greater chance of getting them to pay attention to issues which really affect all of us "bottom 99%ers"

    •  bull (0+ / 0-)

      I dont see the remaining uncommitted supers overturning the pledged delegate count.

      Hillary has to win all the remaining contests by 40% margins to end up barely ahead in pledged delegates (by 5 or so)  If she can do that, I am sure she will get the nomination. If she can win all the remaining contests by 30%, and end up maybe 10-20 delegates behind Obama, then its going to be a tossup, and a bitter battle.

      But I don't think she can do that.

      If Hillary loses NC by a slim margin, and wins Oregon by a slim margin, or vice versa, she will still finish the race about 100 delegates behind, and she is still toast.

      •  The pledged delegate count no longer (0+ / 0-)

        matters, because neither candidate can reach 2025 without supers.  Supers are free to use whatever criteria they want, and as we have seen to date, those who have declared have done so for reasons other than the delegate count.  What matters is whether Obama can hold his firewalls.  If he can't then the pledged delegate count will dip to 100 or below which is a nominal difference (especially if you put FL and/or MI into the mix). Hillary would also likely win the popular vote if that scenario plays out (with or without Florida/Michigan) and then there would be a reassessment of Obama's performance to date, and at that point some of Hillary's arguments of primaries v. caucuses, battlegrounds vs. unattainable red states will be given a second look by the supers.

        The other factor favoring Hillary in a jump ball situation is that she favors the joint ticket, allowing supers the option of pleasing most everyone because both sides get a seat at the table and the vast majority of the party will unify behind the joint ticket.  Obama is not open to the joint ticket and that means that defections from Hillary voters are more likely as well as bad feelings and a lack of enthusiasm.  Unlike Obama supporters, McCain has some appeal to parts of Hillary's base (McCain polls well among working class whites and latinos, but does not poll well among liberals or african americans).

        Alternative rock with something to say:

        by khyber900 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:11:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  hahahahaha (0+ / 0-)

          The pledged delegate count no longer matters.

          Technically, you are correct.. Superdelegates are free to vote for anyone they want, and Technically the remaining SDs could overturn the pledged delegate count, as determined by the 50-state primary process. - if they suddenly massively started to turn to Hillary.

          I am not saying they are forbidden to do that. They can. And pigs can also fly if you outfit them with motorized wings. But how willing are pigs to fly? and how willing are Superdelegates to overturn the will of 50 states? Right now Obama is leading the pledged delegate total by 6%,and approximately 150 delegates.  And over the past weeks as SD's declare, he has slowly eroded Clinton's super delegates lead until it is now hovering around 20 SD's, from an early December lead of 100.  

          The pledged delegate count appears to matter to party leaders. How willing are the remaining few superdelegates to go against the tide and massively declare for Hillary?

          Jimmy Carter, Nancy Pelosi will not overturn the will of democrats across the nation:

          "It would be undemocratic if the super-delegates blatantly went against the decision of Democratic voters across the nation.

          "And I think that many super-delegates who have not yet declared their preference have the same feeling that I do, including the Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. She’s said over and over that whoever gets the most [pledged] delegates by June 3rd ought to be the nominee."

          Hillarys only hope is to make this a much closer game, and pull even with Barack. To do this she needs to win the remaining contests by an average of at least 69% - 31% which will put her even on delegates.  If she can pull this off, then I think she might win.

          And if she manages to eke out a bare slim win in the May 6th contests, say she gains 10 delegates more than Obama does on that day, then the odds get even worse for her -

          She would have to win all the  remaining contests by something like 85% - 15% to  finish about 20 delegates behind Obama.

          Wake up and smell the delegates, my friend


          408 pledged delegates are still out there.
          if Clinton wins 67.4% (275 of those), and Obama wins 32.6% (only 128 of those), their pledged delegate totals would be:

          1612 - clinton
          1612 - Obama

          Otherwise we got a flying pig situation.

    •  The number od delegates determine who wins. (0+ / 0-)

      The turtle was tight in its shell for a long time. But at last its legs waved in the air, reaching for something to pull it over. -Steinbeck (Grapes of Wrath)

      by Ma Joad on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:05:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Only 6 points ahead (0+ / 0-)

    We gotta get out there and canvas and phone bank.  I plan to each upcoming weekend.  

    The only place where Republicans are anywhere close to responsible is in the dictionary.

    by DemDachshund on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:23:00 AM PDT

  •  Cheddarheads love Obama (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:


    Where's the love for Wisconsin?

    We're east of Big Muddy last time I checked, and if I remember correctly, our wonderbread demographics gave Obama a pretty decent victory in a primary.

    He will definitely do better here than Clinton, although I think both can win here in November.

  •  native Oregonians (0+ / 0-)

    What explains Obama's relative strength in rural Oregon versus Portland?

    •  I think rural whites here (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, Phyllis in Oregon

      a.) are influenced by their children living in more progressive regions of the state and/or the heavily Portland-influenced media.  In other words, ultra-liberal Portland spreads its influence throughout the state.  This causes quite a bit of resentment for those rural Oregonians who are far Right, as you can imagine.

      b.) are completely and utterly fed up from the Bush years.  For some reason our conservatives had less patience for all that garbage.

      c.) are less racist than in some other regions of the country.  Sad, but probably true.

      •  Let not forget (0+ / 0-)

        the decline of Timber through the Clinton AND Bush years- and now the timber compensation is being yanked.
        REALLY pissed of even the reddist rural Oregonian because now there are counties going bankrupt. Not just school funding cut- but all the county and city services- which were already minimal- are gone. Small towns are disappearing because there's no work (no timber), no tax base to grow(timberland is owned by the feds & can't be sold for residence or buisness).
        I'd say many have had to find work in the progressive cities, been introduced to some of the progressive ideas and realize they aren't as scary as they thought.

        -7.50/-7.90 Everyone knows I'm out in left field.

        by WiseFerret on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:30:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  they can smell a phony (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Phyllis in Oregon


      can we handle the power of change?

      by bob zimway on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:06:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Oregon must be full of "activist" whites (n/t) (0+ / 0-)
  •  As Maine goes... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, Ma Joad, mommaK

    Maine my home state, is one of the whitest, poorest states in the nation, but I confidently predict that Obama will win the majority of votes handily.  

    This proves nothing on a national scale, except being White, and Poor, is not the same everywhere.

  •  Obama doesn't have a problem with white voters. (8+ / 0-)

    APPALACHIAN WHITES HAVE A PROBLEM WITH OBAMA, and its their own racist problem

    We have no desire to offend you -- unless you are a twit!

    by ScrewySquirrel on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:29:02 AM PDT

  •  I have a problem with this statement... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DelRPCV, Knut Wicksell, bara, RavinDave

    Kos writes:

    Funny that, I've just spent weeks hearing about how Obama can't win white people. So I'm a bit confused.

    The general election is far different from primaries.  The concern about winning white people is winning them in the general.  Of course Obama can win "white" people in a Democratic primary.  Most racists tend to vote in GOP primaries - NOT Democratic ones.  

    Primaries are typified by the "base" turning out in large numbers.  A Democratic primary's constituency looks far different than the general election's.

    While I desperately hope Obama wins the general, the above statement would be on a par with the following statement, if made by a well-known blogger from the other side:

    Funny that, I've just spent weeks hearing about how McCain can't win moderates / progressives.  So I'm a bit confused.

    However, as I've said before... even if Obama is unable to overcome our country's inherent racism and reactionary attitudes, his victory in the primary will go a long way towards breaking the power of the DLC and DLC-types.  

    IE: His primary victory will be a further nail in the coffin of those who would corrupt, subvert, and "co-opt" the Democratic party into abandoning its principals in favor of turning it into "GOP-Lite".

    It is a continuing mistake of many on this site to equate primary victory with general electoral victory - such hubris will not serve our interests in seeing Obama win the general.  The general election will be an entirely different game and its time to stop the primary=general meme.  

    PS:  Just because I recognize our country's problems with racism and am willing to point those problems out does not make me a racist.  To put it another way:  I also believe our country's industry and multinational corporations are destroying the environment in their ever-loving never-ending pursuit of endless and gross profits.  Does this make me anti-environment?  Of course not.

    The unforgiving god of realism is rarely tempted from his mistress of Real-Politik by eloquent sacrifices at the alter of idealism.

    by Johnathan Ivan on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:32:13 AM PDT

    •  Evidence? (0+ / 0-)

      For months, polls have shown that Obama does better against McCain than HRC, the sole exception being the South.  Most important to the future of the democratic party, he does better than HRC against McCain in the Southwest.

      So what evidence do you have that contradicts these polls?  Or are you just going on a gut feeling that whites aren't going to vote for a black candidate?

      "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

      by Subterranean on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:29:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Fascinating response. (0+ / 0-)

        I'm curious, where in my message did I imply any thoughts as to comparing Obama & Hilary vs. McSame?

        Just curious.  Perhaps I missed it.  If you could provide a quote where I was holding forth on (Obama vs. Hilary) vs McSame, that might help.

        So what evidence do you have that contradicts these polls?  Or are you just going on a gut feeling that whites aren't going to vote for a black candidate?

        So what evidence do you have that I was comparing Obama to Clinton?  Or are you just going on some gut feeling based on reading my mind?


        The unforgiving god of realism is rarely tempted from his mistress of Real-Politik by eloquent sacrifices at the alter of idealism.

        by Johnathan Ivan on Fri May 02, 2008 at 01:54:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  We're just much cooler out here... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dus7, WiseFerret

    But that may be my West Coast elitism speaking.

  •  Eastern white racist here (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Hello! I wasn't aware of it, but I am apparently an Eastern White Racist, because I favor Clinton.

    I thought it had to do with my opinion that Obama doesn't have the political muscle that the Clinton machine has to actually accomplish something in office. I believed I had doubts about Obama's past coming out in the general -- we've seen a preview with Jeremiah Wright, and it hasn't been very pretty. I fooled myself into believing that we were all Democrats, and it was perfectly ok to support the candidate you think will do a better job as President. I mean, whoever the nominee is, we'll come together in the general behind him or her, right?

    But I wasn't aware until just now that all of my opinions are actually a thin screen papering over my deep-seated racism. Thank you, Kos, for showing me how I really think.

    You know I love you right? And that we can disagree without personal rancor and all? So I hope you take it in the spirit of friendly banter when I say fuck you, Markos, for calling me a racist. You're not helping.

    I am a reform Democrat.

    by rusty on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:33:25 AM PDT

    •  kos never said any such thing in his post (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Someone sounds a little sensitive.

    •  Oh please (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      awnm, wishingwell

      If you can't understand the difference between a white man who won't vote for Obama because he can't get over his race and someone who genuinely believes they have good reasons for voting Clinton, then this site is too hard for you anyway.  

      •  Who assigns the difference? (0+ / 0-)
        That's what I'm saying. Kos attributes it to eastern whites having "a problem" with Obama. All of us. A -- meaning "One" -- Problem. And I don't think I need to spell out what "problem" it is we're supposed to have, do I?

        So I'm supposed to exempt myself but believe that everyone else is a racist? If I'm not voting because of race (or gender, for that matter) why would I think that everyone else is?

        I am a reform Democrat.

        by rusty on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:15:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Clinton machine criminally suppressing black vote (0+ / 0-)

      So I hope you take it in the spirit of friendly banter when I say: Fuck you, Rusty - for licking the boots of a thug in a pantsuit. You're not helping.

    •  You're assuming that "a problem" means that Kos (0+ / 0-)

      was calling you a racist. Look upthread to my earlier comment for another possible explanation for eastern white voters to prefer Clinton.

      I did want to comment on your reason for preferring Clinton though. What "political muscle" do you imagine Clinton has if half of her husband's former cabinet has jumped to Obama during the primaries? As far as I can see, she used her muscle in the early days when she racked up most of her super delegates and was the anointed front-runner. If she was the nominee, I'm sure she'd get a new infusion of political muscle, as would Obama.

      Happy the man and happy he alone--he who can call today his own ... John Dryden

      by ohiolibrarian on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:10:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Could be (0+ / 0-)

        By "political muscle" I partly meant the longstanding Clinton machine, although I don't get the sense that an FOB is automatically (or even greatly more likely to be) an FOH. But more than that, I meant that I think she's a fighter.

        I think she shows a lot of her husband's propensity to never back down - possibly even more so. In some cases, this rubs me the wrong way. I think the time to back down on the war was long ago, for example.

        But given the choice between "post-partisan," which to me is a synonym for "will get eaten raw in DC," and someone who I think will fight the partisan fight (mostly) on my side, I pick the fighter. I'm just not interested in "getting beyond politics." This is politics. What on earth would be the point of getting beyond it? Politics is how we make policy here. It's like saying I'm going to write a book with no words, because I'm getting "beyond language." Might be an interesting artistic statement, but it's not gonna be much of a book. If you want to write something with no words, perhaps you ought to be a composer. If you want to propose policy without engaging in politics, I think maybe you belong in a think-tank.

        The standard response to that, of course, is that Obama doesn't really mean that, and when he wins, he'll come out swinging. That this is just campaign strategy to gather in the coalition of the disaffected. If so, I'm even less impressed. If he believes he can do this, I have strong doubts but admire his idealism. If not, all he is is another politician. I'll take the politician who promises to fight and does just that, thanks.

        While your assessment of the voting split might be right, I absolutely don't think that's what "a problem" in the main post was code for. Your analysis is historical and fairly subtle, and could not possibly be casually implied by two words. "A problem" flat-out means "a racial problem."

        It's also kind of mystifying why, with the nomination all but sewn up for his guy, Kos would want to go and call all Hillary voters racists. Which is what I meant by not helping. He's not my first choice, but I'll be happy to vote for Obama for President. I hope his partisans would do the same for any Democratic nominee, even the Great Pantsuited Satan. But it doesn't make it any easier to swallow when his fans are so intent on this kind of slash and burn. Why the anger? Your guy's gonna win. Settle the hell down.

        I am a reform Democrat.

        by rusty on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:39:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You see, I just don't get what you mean by (0+ / 0-)

          a "fighter." I'm sure that neither of us want a President that folds like a cheap suit at the first hint of opposition, but otherwise how does being a "fighter" actually get things accomplished for the country? I'm looking for a methodology here.

          I understand what Obama's method might be because I know of his background in community organizing, which puts a premium on listening to stakeholders, looking for issues, or parts of issues upon which the stakeholders can agree, and finding win-win solutions to problems. He has done this sort of thing in the Senate (with Lugar on loose nukes for instance) This used to be the way politics was conducted in America, and still is in many places.

          It assumes that people who are "on the other side of the aisle" may yet have legitimate concerns and perspectives that can go into making a better bill or policy. It also reduces long-term resentment (only think how resentful we are at the strong-arm tactics of Bush and the Republicans over the last 8 years and dating back to all the attacks on the Clintons in the 1990s). And, frankly, it seems to be the way adults make rational decisions that benefit the country as a whole.

          Originally (way back in January), I assumed that Hillary Clinton's claim of experience meant that she knew what buttons to push, what levers to pull, and where the bodies were buried. I assumed her experience in the White House translated to knowing and having relationships with many people in all branches of government and that she arguably could push things forward through a combination of personality and encyclopedic knowledge of DC. But, that's not the way she has played it.

          Now, when you say, "Hillary is a fighter" what I see is Hillary flailing around as likely to smack an ally as to hit an opponent. That's not what I want for the future of this country.

          Happy the man and happy he alone--he who can call today his own ... John Dryden

          by ohiolibrarian on Fri May 02, 2008 at 12:36:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  A fighter (0+ / 0-)

            I haven't seen Hillary flailing or smacking much at all. She doesn't really talk about Obama anymore. Compare their speeches.

            And your dream of bipartisan comity works about as well as Communism. It's a pretty idea, and it would be utopia if only everyone would go along with it at all times. The likelihood of that being, of course, 0%.

            I love the idea too -- that we would rationally hammer out compromises that best serve the majority of the people. Except for the problem that it has never worked that way. There's partisan rancor right now, sure. But I strongly dispute the idea that it's the worst its ever been, or even particularly ugly right now. The American system of government has always been a bitter ongoing fight. The famous line about laws and sausages wasn't invented for the 110th Congress. It was Bismarck, two hundred years ago.

            In many local governments, on many issues, what you're talking about does happen, though not by any means all local governments and definitely not on all issues. Communism again -- it works pretty well most of the time on a small enough scale. We can all pitch in to buy a pizza together and share it equally, but that doesn't scale up to national size. At the federal level, it has been, is, and always will be a street fight.

            What I'm saying is that someone who comes to a street fight looking to find common ground and come to an understanding with their opponent is going to get the crap beat out of them, over and over. They'll win a lot of "moral victories" and in the process give away most of the actual rewards.

            Community organizing is a far cry from achieving policy goals over the completely rigid opposition of half of the population. Community organizing means getting neighbors to work together to achieve something that's clearly in their own interest. The hard part is getting people to do the work. If Obama had experience in, say, organizing one half of a neighborhood to collectively take the other half's houses, he'd be my man for the job of President.

            I can't predict how he'll do in the White House. I have some doubts about whether or not he'll even get there, but it seems clear that he's going to be our nominee, so I hope for the best. I will be thrilled if your dream comes true, and Obama ushers in a more civilized era of bipartisan progress. I just don't think it's likely. The Republican thugs we have now are going to be the same ones he'll have to work with. If he plans to speak softly, I hope like hell he finds a really big stick.

            I am a reform Democrat.

            by rusty on Fri May 02, 2008 at 01:41:48 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Yes, but... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Yeah, Oregon is mostly white. And Obama is winning it.

    Yes but the Clinton campaign has just advised us that those are not the right kind of white people. White people on the west coast don't count. Pat Buchanan confirms this.

    "You really can't run a middle-class democracy with a multimillionaire press corps." -Daily Howler

    by assyrian64 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:34:14 AM PDT

  •  No machine in Oregon and no identity politics (6+ / 0-)

    Hillary's bread and butter is using existing democratic party machines and exploiting the bitterness between working class whites and blacks.  

    If you are a super, you can't be too impressed with the person who's argument for winning is based on that.  The machine will do what it's directed to do, so no worries there.  And the working class whites need leadership here, not pandering.  Obama has a message that aims to unite working class whites and blacks.  

    The whole idea of the white working class not going over to Obama in the general is a self-fulfilling prophecy.  They will go over if HRC tells them to.  They are persuadable.  HRC can't get the people Obama brings in.  They are off the table for her.  That's the crux of the electability argument as I see it.  

    "If he who bases his hopes on human nature is a fool, he who gives up in the face of circumstances is a coward." -Albert Camus

    by jcbhan on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:35:50 AM PDT

  •  Oregon (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The media is a simulation and robs people of their existence--no question about that.

    But it didn't say Obama can't attract white voters--it said it can't attract white working voters in the rust belt. His problem is with the Reagan Democrats, not educated whites, say at Kos.

    Oregon is a ways away and if he does okay in Indiana and wins by 8 or so in NC, the thing will be over.

    My suggestion to Obama supporters is to quit blaming Hillary for everything under the sky--it isn't becoming. And I don't even think Obama would like it.

    If Hillary wins by 8 or so in Indiana and comes to within 5 in NC, the door will be open for an Obama collapse. I suggest you get back on track--say why he's the best for the country and quit making excuses. If Hillary loses, so be it. I'll vote for Obama. Never have I said, and the Clinton blogs rarely say, that Obama has done anything but run a smart campaign and used the rules to his advantage. AND not because Obama has played typical dirty politics.

    My defense of Hillary is not intended to suggest that she is not centrist and that the Clintons generally play dirty pool. I think our politics is dirty by its nature and Obama is not different. What I want to know is WHAT he will do as President. I've asked that here a thousand times. And it usualy merits a lot of attacks and troll comments. I've been on Kos for as long as many people for Obama.

    I personally prefer Nader (have said so) to all the Dems and preferred Edwards when the choice was with Obama and Hillary.

    So can the discourse become a little more Civil? and also serious. Attack Hillary for her positions--there are many--and not for being the devil--which she is not. She's actually a quit competent middle of the road democrat who would probably do a good job as president, maybe better than Bill--who many of you supported (when he was president) and I DIDN"T.

    Obama, I don't believe is an knowledgeable of the issues as Hillary, but he too would probably be a good president. On domestic issues, he to centrist for me. His denunciation of Wright was unfortunate, since I thought Wright was correct on most things--Not AIDS.
    Obama's rejection was a move to the center--the last thing we need. If he's in the center, I'd rather have Hillary. If he's to the left, I'd switch.

    My chief problem on the issues with Obama is Health Care. As Krugman has intimated, it's very market driven and therefore, very Republican friendly.

    Now if I'm wrong about this, tell me how. I anticipate attacks--the last bastion after the last bastion.

  •  I'd wager that Oregonian Democrats (3+ / 0-)

    are some of the most progressive in the country and have been for decades. Having been one myself for a couple of those decades it makes perfect sense to me that they would reject Clinton as their preferred candidate, regardless of race, gender or other classifications.

    I guess taking the time to not broadly generalize with sweeping motions and flailing arms and squawking mouths is too much to expect from the spewing heads on TeeVee. I am so friggin sick of them.

    If you experience an election lasting four weeks too long, please contact dr. dean. ~ homo neurotic

    by cosmic debris on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:37:00 AM PDT

    •  But we Oregonians still don't like (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      some aspects of the progressive agenda.  We are strong on the environment and equal rights issues (but don't like too much postmodern thought with our cornflakes).  Much of our state was hurt by the loss of the timber industry, so environmental management is important.  Outside Portland (especially Multnomah County) the state is extremely conservative (except Eugene and Ashland).  Senator Gordon Smith (a moderate Repub) is probably safe in November, no matter what anyone tells you.  I've talked to people throughout the state and although I can't stand him, he has good crossover support.  His main opponents are a vertically-challenged comedian, a self-promoting non-politician, and then third (yes third) is the one of the Democratic legislature heads.  We really are a weird state in many ways (almost voting for Bush in 2000 and 2004).

      Obama is the man! Forget his inexperience. Do we want Hillary's experience?

      by Vern Marcus on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:44:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Coast tends to be liberal/progressive too (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dus7, Crisitunity, tash5809

        as are pockets around Cornvalley (Corvallis), Salem and Bend. I lived in small towns in Coos, Lane and Lincoln Counties so I can't agree that the State is extremely conservative outside Portland, Eugene and Ashland. Yes, as with many parts of the US, the farming communities tend to be more conservative and Eastern Oregon and parts of Central Oregon are definitely more that way. There are also plenty of Repubs in Western Oregon, but progressivism is alive and well there. We must move in different circles there.

        If you experience an election lasting four weeks too long, please contact dr. dean. ~ homo neurotic

        by cosmic debris on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:56:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Lincoln City and Newport are progressive (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Orj ozeppi, dus7

          to some extent, but there are a lot of quiet conservatives there.  Florence and Tillamook are more conservative, but most the north coast cities are fairly progressive.  Brookings and the southern coast are conservative.  Corvallis is actually pretty conservative for a college town (grandma lived there most of her life and we visited a lot).  Eugene is very progressive and Ashland (where SOU is) is like a little San Francisco.  

          Obama is the man! Forget his inexperience. Do we want Hillary's experience?

          by Vern Marcus on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:10:32 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Not really... (0+ / 0-)

        His main opponents are a vertically-challenged comedian, a self-promoting non-politician, and then third (yes third) is the one of the Democratic legislature heads.

        This -

        Oregon U.S. Senate Primary: Merkley Support Nearly Triples

        is from the very same SUSA poll upon which this front-page post is based, and the top of the Senate race is now a statistical tie.

        Jeff Merkley's amazing ascent in the polls over these last few weeks has been really impressive, and more and more Oregonians every day are deciding that yes, Jeff Merkley is the best person to represent us in the US Senate; and he will definitely be one of the leading progressive voices in that body.

        My ballot was waiting in the mailbox for me when I got home from work today; and I've already filled it out for Jeff Merkley, Sam Adams and Barack Obama amongst others.  Still trying to figure out a couple of tough calls, though; specifically State Rep 42 and Portland City Commissioner number 1...

  •  I'm based in Oregon (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    biscobosco, ElizabethAM, ayjaymay

    and I can tell you that I see more Obama bumper stickers than Hillary, but Bill is speaking here tomorrow in the Willamette Valley and I may go see him.  Oregon is not nearly as progressive as many of us would wish, and McCain actually has a chance in the general (much more so than Bush did).  Especially if Hillary is the Dem candidate (I worked on the past two elections here in this state, so trust me I know more than most of you Kos political experts when it comes to my home state).  If Hillary is the nominee Oregon could go red state (although Washington and California will still be Dem holds).

    Obama is the man! Forget his inexperience. Do we want Hillary's experience?

    by Vern Marcus on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:37:38 AM PDT

    •  No way (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      You may be election so and so, but I've lived here my entire life and I'm an avid follower of city and state politics and there's no way Oregon votes McCain.  Absolutely no fucking way.  

      •  Sorry that came off a little harsh (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Just the thought of my home state voting McCain is too much to bear.

        As a serious Obama homer, if by some chance he loses I'm voting Hillary, because as scary as she is, she's still much much better than McCain.  I feel many of us would fall in line.

      •  I was born in Portland, friend (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        biscobosco, Coffee Geek, tash5809

        and have never lived anywhere else but Oregon.  If Hillary is the candidate, the Blue coast will indeed have a red state right in the middle.  Take it to the bank.  When was the last election you worked, pal?  Or do you just go on what OPB and NPR tell you?  Get out in the field, shake some hands, knock on doors.  Ask people what they think.  Obama will win Oregon (barring another Wright or Ayers in his closet as an October surprise).  Hillary will not.  It's as simple as that.  

        Obama is the man! Forget his inexperience. Do we want Hillary's experience?

        by Vern Marcus on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:49:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Is HRC that unpopular in OR? (0+ / 0-)
          •  I think it's fall out (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Cynic in seattle, tash5809

            from her husband's administration.  Many here (including Democrats) I've talked to were glad when he was gone from the White House.  Gore should have won this state in 2000 in a walk, but barely won it (by a few thousand votes) over Bush.  It's not as progressive as people think, but the large blue swathe in the northern Willamette Valley is usually enough to keep it in Democratic hands.  Bush is not loved here (or anywhere) but McCain is perceived so far as a non-Republican Republican which reaches those Reagan Dems who turned it red in 1980 and 1984.  Hillary would not be good here, although she may have a much better chance to get Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida so little Oregon's electoral votes in November are probably not a big concern for her.

            Obama is the man! Forget his inexperience. Do we want Hillary's experience?

            by Vern Marcus on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:00:08 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  support but no passion for HRC (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Orj ozeppi, Coffee Geek, PZinOR

            Just came from holding up Obama signs on the Hawthorne Bridge in Portland with 22 other people. Across the street from us there was 2 Clinton supporters sharing a sign. LOTS of horn honking for Obama. I live in rural southern Oregon and Obama will do strong there in that conservative area. People just don't like Hillary down there. Hillary supporters are pretty quiet and unenthusiastic, perhaps embarrassed.

        •  WA state would be close in the general (0+ / 0-)

          if Hillary were the nominee, and OR always votes a little more red than WA state, so I can see it falling to John McCain.    WA state went 2 to 1 for Obama in the caucus... Hillary doesn't have much support among progressives in the WA state, and I wouldn't think Oregon would be much different.    In WA state primary, Hillary did much better.    I don't know if its because progressives pulled a Rush Limbaugh and voted in the Republican primary to mess things up; did not vote; or if there is support for Hillary among a demographic that just doesn't bother to show up at caucuses.     Why does the latter seem to be the case?

        •  I'm not so sure (0+ / 0-)

          as you that Oregon would go for McCain if Hillary were the nominee.  And yes I have street cred in going door to door for Democrats in Oregon for the past 30 years.  

          Oregon has always strongly backed for the "Peace candidate" - we went for Eugene McCarthy in 1968 over Bobby Kennedy and kept returning Hatfield to the Senate based on his pacifism.  Oregonians will not vote for McCain since he is the 100 years in Iraq  war candidate.  Even Gordon Smith has had to stop supporting the war in Iraq in order to get reelected.

          Actually, Bill Clinton did a lot to help Oregon transition from a timber economy.  

    •  How big can Obama beat McCain in Oregon? (0+ / 0-)
  •  Another reason... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Orj ozeppi, ElizabethAM

    Oregon had a population of 3.4 million in 2000.

    2 million of those live in the Portland metro area.

    My bet is Obama is leading Portland by enough to balance the rest of rural Oregon.


    In the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

    by Cixelsyd on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:39:45 AM PDT

  •  I think the worst is over (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    PA was Clinton's last hope at changing the momentum and Barack has weathered the storm of everything Clinton and the conservatives (including the very telling GOP North Carolina attack ad).  NC and OR will be good news cycles.

  •  "...but by the content of their character" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    We're not there yet.

  •  Watch out, Kos (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    That's some movement toward Hillary, and there's a while to go before the final votes are in. Oregon should be a Obama state, as you point out, because it is a western "creative class" place. At this rate of gain, Hillary is going to win it. Especially if the Obama campaign continues to put out moronic mailers that are cribbed word for word from their Pennsylvania campaign, down to saving "the Great Lakes" (see Jerome at Mydd for the hilarious details).

    Btw, Obama does better outside of Portland for several good reasons, none of which are surprising or CW-changing. For one, most of the universities, including both OU and OSU, are outside Multnomah county. The rural part of the state has very little population and there's very little blue collar industry anywhere. And Multnomah (Portland) has more Asians than African Americans, and many  more Latinos (10% more total Asian and Latino Americans than A.A.).

  •  "Only old white people from Scranton count." (0+ / 0-)
  •  But they're not Regular Americans (0+ / 0-)

    They may be poor, but they probably all commute to Washington to work as Starbucks baristas, and all that latte-sipping has gone to their heads. Plus, don't they have a lot of universities out there? They're probably all educated, too. Not regular.

    "Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." -Benjamin Franklin

    by Septic Tank on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:45:28 AM PDT

  •  Are you dumb, or just colorblind? The West is RED (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Democrats narrowly won OR and WA in 2004 against arguably the worst president in American history.  The only Western state that is solidly Democrat is California, and I don't think Obama will win that state in 2008.  Thanks to your earth scorching, Clinton's supporters will vote for the moderate McCain or stay home.  

  •  The West Coast (0+ / 0-)

    Is far more color-blind.

  •  Replace "Obama" with "African Americans" (0+ / 0-)

    ...or some variant thereof....

    You know what's going on? White people west of the Mississippi like Obama fine, those east of the Mississippi have a problem with him. That's why (generally speaking) Obama runs far stronger in the western part of the country, despite having smaller to non-existent black populations.

  •  Oregon is white working class (0+ / 0-)

    I suspect that when Clinton is out of the primary the vast majority of wwc voters are going to gravitate to Obama.  He tends to grow on people, as he did in PA, and McCain is likely to start people wanting to beat their heads on a wall when they see and hear more of him.  His auditory range seems to run from snooze-producing to cranky and petulant.  Not attractive.  Then there is the problem of him falling off a stage or something similar, which I am betting is almost a given before the campaign is over.  Everyone knows a cranky old coot who falls off things and cannot be trusted to carry anything breakable.  You know, like our nation?

  •  Jesse Jackson won oregon (0+ / 0-)

    don't diss, dude

  •  Oregon is a mail-in ballot state (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dus7, shaharazade, tash5809

    Which is clearly undemocratic and elitist. Have you seen the price of stamps lately?!? Just a bunch of bicycle-riding, latte-sipping, GoreTex-wearing non-bitter pansies. How insignificant.

    "I will vote for the Democratic candidate for president--period." --Me

    by kovie on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:53:43 AM PDT

  •  kos - all the stereotypes are false (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    obama can win anywhere.

  •  How was the Poll conducted? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    shaharazade, tash5809

    Did it have the same problem of many polls of not reaching people who only have cellphones (i.e. most people under 30)?

    Because I am in Portland right now (visiting friends, family and working for Obama, natch), and I haven't met a single person in my age bracket - who make up a very very large slice of Portland - that is planning to vote for Hillary.

    Also, does anyone know anything about the delegate distribution process in Oregon? Because I could see Obama not netting that many delegates because he runs up huge margins in Portland, Eugene, Asheville, the Lost Coast, and loses the eastern counties and the suburbs.

    But if this new poll is correct, well, maybe not.

  •  North Dakota (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Obama won my state of North Dakota nearly 2-1 over Clinton. Minorities account for less than 5 percent of the state's population, mostly Native Americans.

  •  What Hillary's camp thinks of Indiana whites (0+ / 0-)

    This youtube video caught a Hillary supporter calling white working class people in Indiana "shit" and "white ni..ers" - but he's not calling anyone a monster.

  •  Funny.. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Oregon has all of SEVEN Electoral votes...that'll make up for losing Ohio and Florida!

    •  You're just a Republican (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Admit it.  Part of Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos is to get us progressives turning on each other.  Get your trolling butt back to Drudgereport.  (There, I said it)

      Obama is the man! Forget his inexperience. Do we want Hillary's experience?

      by Vern Marcus on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:04:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You found me out.. (0+ / 0-)

        ...Did you find me out by tracking my DNC donations or was it the $$$ I gave to  Perhaps you found me out by my ACLU membership?  No, it must be the donations I made to Dr. Victoria Wuslin...

        Please tell how you found out I'm a Republican so I can make sure it doesn't happen again...

        •  That proves you're a Repub (0+ / 0-)

          You have to trot out all your great progressive accomplishments such as donations to our important causes.  If you were a true progressive, you wouldn't need to.  Your hits on Obama show you're trying to bolster Hillary, which only Rush Limbaugh's dittoheads would be doing right now.  Republican!  Reaganite!  Bushee!  I hope the rest of the Kos forum finds out.  I wonder how many more trolls we have trolling around in here.  

          Obama is the man! Forget his inexperience. Do we want Hillary's experience?

          by Vern Marcus on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:41:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  YAWN... (0+ / 0-)

            Now you're just an ass...

            •  So you're not going to defend yourself, huh? (0+ / 0-)

              Just calling names?  Just like Limbaugh.  I didn't mean to be mean, just tired of all the hits on Obama from fake Dems.  You've been pretty vocal of your hatred of Obama and you sounded like a Repub in a lot of your posts.  

              Obama is the man! Forget his inexperience. Do we want Hillary's experience?

              by Vern Marcus on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:53:12 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Uh, no... (0+ / 0-)

                I did defend myself and you clearly don't deserve another second of my time with your "fake Dems" bull.  The notion that you're somehow a better Dem than me because we support diferent candidates is a load of crap.  By the way, I'll support however the nominee is...will you?  

                I thought not...

                •  Hillary has done so much damage (0+ / 0-)

                  to the party that I'm not sure if we benefit with her winning the presidency.  I think Nader is running again, and he might be worth another look if the hit jobs on Obama and the fake Rev. Wright story  ruin his chances.  I'm not saying I'm a better Dem than you, but I know I'm not as good of a Repub as you are.

                  Obama is the man! Forget his inexperience. Do we want Hillary's experience?

                  by Vern Marcus on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:03:36 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  By the way, Neocon (0+ / 0-)

              "If you don't like the message, insult the writer, insult the candidate...mock the authors name.  Pathetic."

              You said this on March 19.  Looks like you can't follow your own advice.  I guess we know why Chicago is called the "Windy City" now.

              Obama is the man! Forget his inexperience. Do we want Hillary's experience?

              by Vern Marcus on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:55:57 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  I've mentioned it here before (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Obama won ALL of the counties in Washington State.  Counties east of the Cascades are very rural, white, and conservative.  He won the all.

    But then again - you can get a latte even in a one stop-light town in this state.

    He can win the West, including the Mountain states.

  •  FWIW (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Hardhat Democrat, shaharazade

    I suppose we're all amateur pundits now, but I think the problem is that too many folks misinterpretted the data.

    I don't believe the divide is truly a racial divide so much as it is an age divide.

    I guess I'm going out on a limb by saying this without actually bothering to look up the numbers, but I'm fairly sure that the west (and the south) is simply much "younger" demographically than the midwest and northeast.

    I do know PA is the 2nd oldest state... I also know IN is much younger, but not really a "young" state (I believe it's exactly on par with the national average).

    I think it's a simpler matter of Obama performing better in younger states than older states.   Younger folks are simply less likely to give a rats ass about the Wright-type distractions.

    I mean - we live in a multi-media world of internets, blogs, cable teevee, and crowded 24 hour world of 'pay attention to ME'.  

    Wright simply doesn't shock -- or bother -- us because it's pretty much par for the course of the world we interact in.

    I guess everyone's got their own blog now.

    by zonk on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:02:21 AM PDT

    •  that applies (3+ / 0-)

      to many oldsters too LOL. I am amazed at the range in age at Obama's headquarters here in OR. It runs the gamut. Same with the turn out at his big rally. Even my right wing son has switched back to democratic to vote for Obama.  

      "And if my thought-dreams could be seen They'd probably put my head in a guillotine" Bob Dylan

      by shaharazade on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:10:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sure (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        I certainly don't mean to disparage any age group, especially considering that I'm actually fast approaching the divining line between age demographics.

        I'm just extrapolating from the fact that many in the under 30 set (and I haven't been apart of that set for years) grew up with the internet -- where anything and everything is and can be said, with cable television that for better or worse, pushes the envelope constantly, and other media simply further the realm of 'acceptability'.

        Folks in older age brackets simply remember a time where television was 3 networks, with relatively strict content standards, no instant and wide open participatory media like the internet, etc.

        Obviously - there are plenty of exceptions to both... and just as obviously -- there are millions of voters in older demographics who support Obama, just as there are millions in younger demographics who support Clinton.

        I'm just positing any amateur theory that the margins are due more to age demographics than racial demographics.

        I guess everyone's got their own blog now.

        by zonk on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:17:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

          I think a lot of HRC appeal to, for instance older women and boomers my demographic, is that a lot of them self identify and get their information from traditional media, they consider themselves moderate, and believe Hillary's liberal.  They also seem to adhere more to the paradigm that put the Clinton's in power, the yuppie vision of the Dream. My oldest grandkids have influenced my kids, suburbanites to change their perceptions regarding the old lines of centrist, liberal etc.    

          "And if my thought-dreams could be seen They'd probably put my head in a guillotine" Bob Dylan

          by shaharazade on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:28:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Hey Kos...No One Has Won OR..It's Just A Poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    When the votes are all in, the one with the most votes wins.  Looking around this site, you can spot the desperation on here.  What happens, happens.

  •  A lot of hippies in OR. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    .. and I'm not saying that's a bad thing.

  •  That 100 Richest Counties list is wrong (0+ / 0-)

    I followed the link to the Wikipedia page for 100 Richest Counties.  It is supposed to show per capita income by county.  #1 is Oakland County MI, at more than 120K/yr.  This is wrong.  Oakland County is on there twice and the lower ranking, around 32K/yr is correct.  I don't know what it's doing at the top of the list as well, but that 120K number corresponds to no statistic for Oakland County tha tI could find.

  •  I live in Corvallis, Oregon (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    shaharazade, WiseFerret, ElizabethAM

    and let me tell you this city is a white city.  I think  maybe 2 black people went to my high school.  If anything the most significant minority group is Mexicans which are supposed to be pro Hillary.  Anyway Obama signs, stickers, buttons, and volunteers are everywhere in this city and I have seriously yet to anything pro-Hilary.

  •  You are dumb (0+ / 0-)

    hence confused :)

  •  volunteering in OR (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Hardhat Democrat, ElizabethAM

    I am a volunteer on the campaign (every day the last five weeks...always things to do) and Portland resident.  The Obama staff here is awesome and we have a great group of volunteers.  Regardless of what any poll shows there is strong support for Barack in Multnomah County.  The campaign recently registred/re-registered 14,500 voters in Multnomah and neighboring Washington and Clackamas counties.  Yard signs, bumper stickers, buttons, etc. disappear almost as soon as they arrive at the HQ (SE Divison and 30th in Portland).  Lots of phone banking and canvassing going on...and data entry to record the results from the walking and calling lists.  There is a second office in Portland and there are offices in Beaverton, Gresham, Salem, Eugene, Medford, Corvallis and elsewhere.  Lots of great energy and enthusiasm.

    For those outside the Portland area who wish to volunteer I believe the person to contact is Aubrey Cunningham.  She's really nice and she'll be glad to help you.  I don't have her phone # (direct) in front of me at this time but you can reach her via email at or call 503-236-2008 and someone will get you in touch with her.  

    Aubrey link

    Office locations/phone #s


  •  I live just north of Portland in Vancouver, WA. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Coffee Geek

    I work in Portland and grew up in its suburbs. I caucused in Vancouver which is very white, and a little red around the neck in some areas. Our county, Clark County went for Obama like 6 to 3, don't quote me on that I may be off, but it is a White Portland Suburb. If that says anything I believe Portland is totally Obama country, a lot of latte sipping, Birkenstock wearing, pot smoking, employed hippies live here.

    Go Blazers Roy/Oden 09

  •  I chalk the CW up to a NY and DC focused media. (0+ / 0-)

    They don't seem to understand what goes on to the west of the Mississippi.  Hence Clinton being "inevitable" and her and Giuliani taking the "frontrunner" slots.  Iowa must have seriously confounded them.

    Obama/奥巴马/オバマ/오바마 2008

    by Meng Bomin on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:33:56 AM PDT

  •  Methodology (0+ / 0-)

    I am looking for comments about what people think is a good methodology for discerning racism in voting data. I want to do an analysis. Right now, all we have is race-geography vs. vote preference. I would like to get away from the endless shouting matches on racism and geography. "The NE is racist". "No, Appalachia!" "No, the South!"

    Any ideas from the Kossacks on an objective measure? Surveys are generally useless because people lie constantly.

  •  I was just in an Oregon coffee shop... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Orj ozeppi, Coffee Geek, Ma Joad

    I and I overheard the conversation of two white gentlemen that were probably in their late 50's.  Their comments came directly back to this post.

    They knew that Obama will take Oregon.  No way will Hillary win out here.  Their biggest concern, however, was whether blue collar voters back East (specifically mentioning Pennsylvania) would vote for Obama in the GE.  It was a discussion topic for which they could come to no good resolution.

    What gets left out of this conversation is how incredibly toxic Hillary Clinton is in many parts of the country.  Obama's success out West is partially due to his own appeal and partially due to a general western distaste for Hillary.  Yes, she does very well in some parts of the country, but just focusing on OH and PA blue collar Democratic primary results is an absurd way to determine who should be running the country.  If some people need to be dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century... we might as well start with the party that is supposed to be the home of progressives.

    •  Blue-collar voters in the East will mostly follow (0+ / 0-)

      their traditional parties, no matter who is the nominee.  The machines in the eastern states are powerful, the parties largely entrenched, and the inertia to do anything other than what one has always done is intense (those were Hillary's advantages here in PA).  Let the organizers familiar with these states work the system (within reason), and we can deliver the states.  The primary is a totally different race than the general, so don't take the wrong lessons from what has happened up to now.  Race will not be the determining factor in November -- the voters'd vote for Colin Powell if he was running -- but we have to let the people on the ground here who know these voters be the ones to get them comfy with a smidgen of change.

      You guys on the West Coast have to get us our candidate, though!

    •  mmm, lattes, I like to sip mine, how about you? (0+ / 0-)

      "In a time of hype, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." ~George Orwell

      by erin r on Fri May 02, 2008 at 02:50:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  it should be obvious (0+ / 0-)

    Obama does well in Oregon because we drink lattes, the Clinton campaign has established quite clearly that she doesn't do well with latte drinkers (I'm a mocha man myself).

    "You can only protect your liberties in this world by protecting the other man's freedom. You can only be free if I am free."-Clarence Darrow

    by cwech on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:45:20 AM PDT

  •  Hooray for the west coast (0+ / 0-)

    An island of progressive sanity in the desert of conservative America.

    I'm looking forward to November 5th, 2008

    by susanWAstate on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:57:11 AM PDT

  •  Racism vs. Classism (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Coffee Geek

    Maybe people are finally beginning to understand that it's fundamentally not about the color of your skin as to why your not getting that job, or that pay raise or moving up the ladder like you were told you would.  It's not black vs. white, it's the haves vs. the have nots and has always been.  This election is about it more than anything and there is only one candidate that represents this more than the others and it's neither Clinton nor McCain.  

  •  That's why "electable" is a wash (0+ / 0-)

    because the NE is deep blue.  Even if we lose a few racists, it's not like NY or MA or CT are going to vote for McCain.

    And the South? We weren't winning that anyway. Clinton might have put AK and even TN into play. But Obama might put LA into play.

    And if Obama can capture the Southwest, we win, even without OH or FL.

    •  Obama puts Virginia into play, too ... (0+ / 0-)

      ... and while I suspect McCain probably would edge him out in the general election, it could be a tight race and would force the Rethuglican candidate to spend vast amounts of money to stay competitive in a state he could take for granted if Hillary is our nominee.

  •  Kos doesn't know? (0+ / 0-)

    Those aren't real white people in Oregon, duh.  Real white people only live in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Besides, shouldn't those Oregon folks be at work?

  •  It's not that he can't win white votes (0+ / 0-)

    It's that he can't win white votes in states with mixed populations.  He can't transcend states that really need some transcending.

    NYT had an article on this, and Oregon just proves its point.

  •  Kentucky white Dems are racists (0+ / 0-)

    and I am sorry to say that but what other explanation is there?

    I had to live in Louisville and I found it very racist. I worked at the oldest famous restaurant, Hasenour's and I was appalled. All the waiters were white and the busboys were black. They were not allowed at the table while customers were there. They could not pour water or coffee for a waiter or clear a plate until the white customers left.

    I went there from NYC where I worked with every ethnicity in every job, only talent mattered. I left my idiot husband there and came back to NYC, which is really not America, thank god.

  •  Clinton Wins Appalachia! (0+ / 0-)

    That should have been the title on her PA win, after Ohio.  See the graphs all over the internet that show whites voting for her in these moutainous areas, which traditionally lag behind the rest of the country (by about 40 years?!)  Look for not one vote to be cast for Obama in West Virginia!!!  This analysis makes much more sense than anything else, not to discount the Appalachian residents, who need to be encouraged to move ahead from their entrenched position, but to show why it's wrong to show Obama losing white voters.  It's geographic specific.

  •  But Oregon doesn't count! (0+ / 0-)

    It's nowhere near the Appalachian mountains or the Midwest, therefore "real Americans" don't even live there!

    How could you not see the obvious, Kos?

  •  Oregon voters & Obama (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Coffee Geek

    I moved to Oregon in 1977 from San Francisco, CA. I live near Portland, in Multnomah Co. This has typically been the more "liberal" and progressive area of the state since the early 70's, if only because the Portland Metro area is the state's largest population center. I think we may be up to about 2 million or so people now in the metro area. The area has grown alot since I moved up here.

    It is true that we like our coffee, because really with all of the rain we get on the west side of the Cascades, we need all that caffeine to stay awake and not be "depressed", LOL. I'm sure that is why "Starbuck's"  first expanded from Seattle to Portland. I'm sure the "caffeine buzz" in the midst of so much rain is what has contributed to very progressive politics of Portland and Eugene.

    Oregon has never really recovered from the recession of the early 80's. The Portland area as well as Bend, Eugene, and maybe Ashland have done okay. Portland and the smaller cities just west of it have done the best in terms of economic growth due to growth in technology industries. But, the rest of the western part of the state, except for some tourist based economies, has never really recovered due to down turns in the forest & fishing industries.  Central and eastern Oregon have economies that are ranching based and have not done so great either.

    We have alot of struggling and poor communities here, filled with struggling people. Yup, many desperate folks who are disgusted, "bitter" and ready for a major change. The overall situation in Oregon has only worsened under the Bush regime and most folks here know it.

    Although, outside of the Portland Metro and Eugene Metro areas, Oregon is fairly conservative, it is the "old fashioned" type of Republican conservatism. I think we have quite a few folks here who lean toward the more Libertarian philosophy, as well. One of  Oregon;s best and most environmentally progressive Governors was Tom McCall who was a Republican. We just do things differently out here.

    Oregon has a very voter based, hands on type of government in that we have a very active initiative process here. Oregon has a strong history of racial discrimination, that we have since recognized. Over the past 15-20 yrs. many actions have been taken to move beyond that point of view and change the dynamics.  For many reasons Obama's pragmatic, progressive and populist approach is one that is  very valued  out here.

    Oregon info:

  •  We are pumped in Oregon! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Hardhat Democrat, JTRicher

    As a member of the Black community in Portland, I wanted to check in.

    There is so much energy and enthusiasm for the Obama campaign!  Seems like Sisters and Brothers (of every hue) everywhere have buttons, t-shirts, and there's just a whole lot of buzz in the air.  It's been a long time since I seen this kind of energy in our community, and it's exciting to watch and be a part of it!

    ...Everything is permissable, but not all things are prudent ~ Apostle Paul

    by angeleyes on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:11:35 AM PDT

  •  Obama inspires. It's just that simple (for me) (0+ / 0-)

    I didn't jump immediately into the Obamamobile. Early on, I was a Pacific Green party member (from Oregon) supporting Kucinich. Still having a fondness for Bill, I was comfortable with the inevitability of Hillary. And besides, Barack kind of pissed me off on gay marriage.

    But I have since been to a mountain top. I listened to the audacity of Hope and eventually saw Obama here in Portland. I have tried the alternative to hope... hoplessness... and it wasn't so good.

    Now I'm all for Obama. He's bringing out the best in me and my fellow Oregonians. For the month until our May 20 primary, my Partner and I are housing two Obama volunteers. They were part of an effort to register 30,000 new Dems in our State! (I had already re-registered to vote in the OR-SEN race.)

    November will be very good for Progressives in Oregon!

    Proud supporter of Steve Novick for US Senate and Joe Walsh for Congress.
       and Barack Obama for President!

  •  You ain't got "Bubba" factor in Oregon (0+ / 0-)

    oregon has only 7 electoral votes = 1/3 PA

    Don't suppress the vote! seat the FL & MI delegates

    by indydem99 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 12:46:35 PM PDT

  •  Lots of Libertarians in the rural areas. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Coffee Geek, pandaba

    They like candidates who are their own people and don't kowtow.  In Douglas county where I grew up, it was not unusual to find a practicing neo-pagan who was also a member of the NRA.  These people think for themselves and they are NOT your textbook conservatives.  Where it rains, people like to read and talk a lot to pass the time.  It makes them more idea and debate oriented.  Plus, so many people are unemployed, it gives us more time to mull things over.

    I also think that severe racism is more prevalent in places where different races come into strong contact with one another on a regular basis.  Since Oregon is so predominantly white, there really hasn't been much opportunity for people to build up situationally-based resentments.  While many less formally-educated residents maintain a lot of ignorance regarding people of other races and think it's funny to tell dumb race-based jokes among their friends and co-workers; sincere hatred and fear are a lot less common.

    P.S. I don't know what the term "likely voters" refers to, but if it doesn't mean registered Dems, don't expect the poll above to match the outcome of the Dem primary.  Registered Independents and third parties in Oregon are very proud of their non-mainstream political identities. An average of 2 out of 3 third party registrants I canvassed could not be persuaded to even momentarily register Democratic for the primary even though they supported Obama.

    Also, if the poll under-represents the Hispanic vote (our largest minority group), it under-represents Hillary's support.  (Perhaps their total numbers are still too negligible to make a difference, but I like to acknowledge them as a demographic just the same.) I don't think Hillary does well with Hispanics because they dislike black people, I think it's because the Clinton's have had a positive history with the Latino community. Also, Mexican and Catholic culture is a bit more matri-focal than the American mainstream culture is, and I think this creates a comparatively easier affinity for the strong elder female candidate.  To illustrate, every Spanish-speaking person I've asked, says they are supporting Hillary and then mentions something positive about her being a woman in the very next sentence.  EVERY single one.  The whole "Hispanics hate Blacks" meme is a total red herring.  They simply like Hillary better.

    "I have sworn upon the altar of God, eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man." -Thomas Jefferson

    by delillo2000 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 01:35:44 PM PDT

  •  um, those are beige people, not whites (0+ / 0-)

    it's still true, Obama has an almost impossible to overcome deficit with the albino vote

    "In a time of hype, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." ~George Orwell

    by erin r on Fri May 02, 2008 at 02:49:17 PM PDT

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