Up until last night, I figured Hillary Clinton had at least a shot at winning enough delegates and popular votes, and convincing enough super delegates of a more than reasonable argument that Florida and Michigan should be counted into the mix. She needed to win handily in Indiana and keep it very close in North Carolina. Neither happened.
Up until last night, I was prepared to write Hillary (another) $25 check to help with her momentum. I don’t have enough disposable income to keep that up any longer.
Up until last night, I figured that most every Hillary supporter would, when the chips are down, support Barack Obama. A look at a CNN graphic showed that most would, but about a third wouldn’t (20% of Obama supporters wouldn’t support Clinton). But it’s early in the game as far as that goes, so I’m sure there will be changes as people realize what a McCain presidency would look like – a mirror image of George Bush.
And finally, up until last night, I figured that if it comes down to Obama-McCain, Obama might very well have an uphill battle convincing enough democrats and independents to vote for him.
But then this morning I looked at the number of people voting in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries (both states went Republican in 2004):
Democrat Republican
Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul
North Carolina 890,695 657,920 381,138 62,917 49,275
Indiana 641,734 623,294 318,374 31,557 19,507
A couple of things stood out here (sorry about the layout there). In North Carolina, over 1.5 million
Democrats voted; less than half a million voted Republican. And just as important, nearly a quarter of Republicans who did vote did not vote for McCain. How can Huckabee even be on the ballot, let alone get 12% this late in the game? I have my suspicions.
If one were to tear up every Clinton ballot, Obama still beats McCain in North Carolina.
In Indiana, same thing. Over 1.2 million Democrats voted versus less than 400K Republicans. And McCain lost 23% of the vote to Huckabee, Paul, and Romney. In the southwestern county of Pike, where McCain received his largest percentage (84% - 768 votes out of 851), if one were to tear up every Clinton ballot (2,467 or 70%), Obama beats McCain by over 200 votes.
If one were to tear up every Clinton ballot in Indiana, Obama still beats McCain.
I’m seeing a trend here.
So, in conclusion, up until last night I thought Hillary had a chance, and that if Obama is the nominee, he could be in trouble come November.
This morning a new reality has set in: I love ya, Hill, but it's over. And Barack Obama can and will beat McCain in November.