I know a little about this place, Forsyth County, NC. Its major city is Winston-Salem, NC. Used to be completely in the 5th Dist (US) back when Stephen Neal was able to rely on Republican cross-overs to stay an elected D in a solidly R seat. But W-S and Forsyth County as a whole has not changed as much as some parts of NC over the past 10 years. Its grown, but it hasn't grown at any speed. Point being, a look into the Forsyth returns is a look into something you just don't see at the macro level, and it reveals, to me certainly (as a longtime political follower) but to anyone who will listen how Barack Obama's gains are real, solid, and intriguing.
First, let's start with the obvious... Martin Luther King Rec Ctr. Precinct. MLK rec as its universally known has is located right next door to one of the largest public housing projects in W-S and indeed, the State of North Carolina, Kimberly Park. Back in the day, MLK Rec's precinct drew partially from Kimberly Park, and partially from the surrounding, dilapidated lease only multi family units that often times were stigmas next to otherwise good public housing. The precinct hasn't changed much, but there have been some good development of low income, but middle class housing initiatives in the vicinity. It's still inner-city, southern, black folks, and it is a stalwart Democratic stronghold. Never huge numbers, but always strong D numbers. Bill Clinton won this thing with something like 90%. Barack Obama yesterday racked up not only an impressive margin: 95% - 5%, but he got a rather big number of votes from a place that in primaries usually tallies in the low hundreds... bringing in 550 votes to Hillary's 27.
If you read the press, you might imagine that's how he won. But trust me, you don't win Forsyth County by carrying MLK Rec, if you did, there would only be black politicians in Forsyth County, but as you can tell here.... that just ain't the case.
So how did he win? Well, the tested and true strategy of Dems in the South is to stitch a coalition together of the basic white liberals (Professors, Lawyers, and a few egg-heads), the black vote, and where you can find them, pissed off middle class whites who are tired of the way things are and ready for a change. It is clear to me that Barack Obama has done this in a way that Bill Clinton never could... in other words, BO is clearly politically viable in the South, especially along the I-85 corridor.
For example, take Pfafftown Christian Academy. The area known as Pfafftown in W-S used to be a rural town on the outskirts of the big city. Just northwest of Wake Forest University, Pfafftown (pronounced "pah-f-town") was a reliably conservative area, though middle class. The people who are Ds in Pfafftown are white, not black. They are Christians, not Jews, and they vote for people like Mike Easley AND Jesse Helms at the same time. They don't think thats weird. They think thats normal. They are THE Regan Dems. There isn't a place left in the world it seems where you can make $30K a year, have a wife, kids, a house, attend church, play softball, and drink beer till your drunk on Saturdays without worry... except for Pfafftown. Over the years, Pfafftown has slowly become more integrated. It isn't lily white, but it ain't exactly creole either. And guess what? Barack Obama won Pfafftown Christian Academy 56%-43%. If you had told me that the day before the election, I would tell you are crazy as hell. But its true and Obama picked up 425 votes in a place where I'd guess he'd be lucky to pick up 100 just 48 hours ago.
Now lets go to Ardmore Baptist, sort of a bellweather of W-S as a whole. Ardmore Baptist sits quaintly down the street from the growing research hospital, Wake Forest Univ./Baptist Hospital. Despite the growth of its neighbor, the hood hasn't changed all that much. There are residents and interns renting multiunit dwellings for pennies so they can walk to work, middle class families starting out, yuppies renovating pretty but old homes, and a large swath of senior citizens who are happy to be where they are and they ain't leaving anytime soon. Given the demographics, I would have expected this precinct in SW Winston to split about 50-50. It is predominately white afterall, and few true eggheads other than the research folks who don't vote anyhow cause half of them are immigrants studying on visas. Well, I would be wrong. Ardmore broke 60-40 for Obama. Unreal to me. And a sign that Obama's coaltion ain't a bunch of tree-huggers, blacks, and college students. Its more, its real, and it ain't going away.
Next I'd like to look at the sine-qua-non of old-guard, establishment, wealthy, elite, and snobbish precincts in the county... indeed in the State. Summit School. Right across the street from RJR's former home, the Reynolda House, across the street for Wake Forest University, down the street from Bowman Gray's mansion (Graylyn) and in the heart of the most Republican ward in the city, the West Ward. This area will be red in November, don't get me wrong, but the Ds that exist there are the establishment Ds. They are the Easley Ds. The Libba Evans Ds. The Jim Hunt Ds. The Ds that have been D since before the Civil War and simply can't be Rs because they would lose their trust fund. They ALL have given tons of money to the Clintons over the years. Indeed, they probably think the Clintons are a bit hoi polloi if you know what I mean, but they're just tickled to get their photos snapped with Bill and others. You gotta understand, a good number of these people were probably appointed to posts for Bill back in the day. They served on boards with Hillary. They are not Clintonites, but they all owe favors to the Clintons, and likewise. Well guess what, these old rich bags voted for Barack Obama and voted for him big. 57%-40%. Absolutely astonishing. And the same sort of trend is shown in the other old guard precinct, Whitaker Elementary, which is slightly more family oriented and less old guard, but the noveux riche in Whitaker came out for Obama almost 60%-40%.
Okay, now on to more fun. Middle class, majority white precincts.
St. Annes Episcopal. Reliably D but just barely so. Very middle class. Sort of a bell weather of sorts. Barack Obama 61-37%.
Mt. Tabor High. Grown a lot lately. Mix of luxury apartments, middle class neighborhoods, and big, new subdivisions. Barack Obama 67-33%.
Clemmons Civic Ctr. Clemmons is THE suburb of W-S. White, upper-middle class, yuppies, but very conservative. Hillary would need to rack up big gains here, and since pretty much the only Ds around are women, you'd expect she would. Wrong. Split 49-49. All the other Clemmons precincts go Hillary, but not at all like you would expect.
Vienna Elementary. Much like Pfafftown. Blue-collar. White. Middle class, down the line. Barack Obama 53-43%.
Polo park. Very middle class. No new subdivisions. All older neighborhoods with older residents. Barack Obama 56-43%.
Belews Creek. Rural. Blue collar. Hunters. Predominately white. You'd expect "shot drinking" Hillary would clean up. And she would need to. But she barely gets 60%.
Tobaccoville Comm. Ctr. Need I say more? Barack Obama 49%-47%.
Bethabara Moravian. Middle class, with some upscale and some lowscale homes. If you win Bethabara Moravian you are doing well. If you crush Bethabara Moravian and kick everyone's ass there, you are NOT an elitist nor do you have a problem with whites. You attract everyone and are obviously bringing in something new. Barack Obama 70-28%.
You don't get these numbers without stitching together a significant coalition. And it appears to me Barack Obama has done just that.