I'm by no means an Electoral Map geek, but I have followed with interest the fact - let's face it - that Obama hasn't done well with working-class, older, lower-income whites: the old-line "classic" Democrats.
And I've been concerned that this phenomenon, given the way that the Electoral College magnifies even a narrow win within a single state, could indeed translate to a McCain victory this fall.
So what if (almost) the worst happens and most of the states in which Clinton has been strong go to McCain? Is there still a plausible path to victory? I fooled around a bit with the very entertaining site 270towin.com and used the following methodology [Sorry, I couldn't manage to make a decent-looking image of the resulting map]:
- Start with Bush's 2004 victory, 286-251 in the EC.
- PA goes to McCain on the assumption that the Hillary Dems defect, so that's a Blue-Red switch.
- VA and NC go from Red to Blue on the assumption that sizable African-American populations, large college concentrations, and big pockets of suburban professionals in NoVa and NC's Research Triangle Park and Charlotte areas go for Obama. (And Webb as a VP?)
- Obama wins a couple of Mountain states - I picked CO and MT. Not too sure about those but it seems plausible based on relative strength in the primaries.
- The above are the only swaps from '04. Everything else remains the same. So the GOP wins the Deep South including FL, most of the Midwest and Southwest, and the mid-America swing states, OH, PA, and MO, that are usually in play.
- For this to work, Obama MUST win the entire Northeast and Mid-Atlantic except PA, the Great Lakes states except IN and OH, and must win CA, OR and WA.
So the result? D 271, R 267.
I was pleasantly surprised - and encouraged - that this path to victory, starting with the 2004 map, doesn't seem as steep as I had assumed. Of course, that doesn't mean it will be easy.
Is this scenario plausible?