So, we all know the goal posts are worn out from moving so much (they had to nail a retread to one to keep it mobile).
First it was Iowa, then Super Tuesday, then blah, blah, blah.
Well, we all know that 2025 is the number w/o FL and MI, while 2209 is the number with, so why 2117?
Duh! It's half the delegates from the two states, dummy!
I'm sure we all know that it would be ridiculous to not seat ANY delegates from either of the "rogue" states, but to seat them at full worth is just as ridiculous. As Markos rightly points out, there needs to be SOME penalty for breaking the rules, otherwise, what's a rule for??
So now, my guess is they'll be seated as half delegates ~, which as fivethirtyeight.com notes, is what terry mcauliffe was suggesting on russert.
He said he would accept an agreement in which Florida and Michigan got half their delegates seated at the convention, based on the primary results
This means that from the two contests combined (withOUT Obama getting any MI votes) is O 36.5, C 96.5. Adding this to today's totals from DCW:
O 1866.5
C 1697
we have the new totals of:
Obama 1903 Clinton 1793.5, with Magic Numbers of 214 and 323.5, respectively.
with MI's 55 (27.5) uncommited delegates, Obama has O 64, C 96.5. Giving us the new numbers for Obama 1930.5 (M# 186.5), while Clinton remains the same.
With Obama netting about another 100 delegates or from the last six contests, he'll only need 114 (or 87) Supers to declare for him out of the remaining 248 remaining. Counting the Pelosi Club, he only will need 106 (78) more.
If the trend from the last week continues (over 30 SDs), then this'll be over real, real soon.