Even without the media covering McCain's desperate efforts to slough-off his fake-moderate image and even with the Democrats locked in the waning hours of a bitter primary fight, Quinnipiac shows McCain hitting a very low national ceiling at what most would consider the ideal conditions for his candidacy (i.e., no media scrutiny, divided opposition). Along with the big Democratic congressional win in Mississippi, in which voters rejected a sizable GOP money advantage and racist anti-Obama ads, it's an absolutely terrible morning to be a Republican.
Here are the numbers:
Obama: 47
McCain: 40
Clinton: 46
McCain: 41
Among various demographics:
Independents
Obama 48, McCain 37
Men
McCain 45, Obama 44
Women
Obama 49, McCain 36
European Descent
McCain 47, Obama 40
African Descent
Obama 87, McCain 4
The Democratic race itself is still tight, an indication that the long race has produced two distinct and dedicated coalitions:
Obama: 45
Clinton: 41
Unfortunately for Republicans, Obama will have the still popular Clinton brand on his side, whereas McCain will have to make do with his toxic association with George W. Bush (who receives a 28% approval rating from this poll).
As you can see, there's a big chunk of undecideds. Who are they?
Undecided Independents: 15%
Undecided Men: 11%
Undecided Women: 15%
European Descent: 13%
African Descent: 9%
Obama should gobble up the remaining African American vote with ease, and once the party unifies, the number of Undecided Women should drop substantially, putting Obama well over the 50% mark.