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According to Donna Brazille, if Obama gets 2026 before May 31st, then Obama will have won the nomination and the May 31st Rules Committee meeting will be cancelled because Obama has already reached the nominating goal. Brazille said and later confirmed this on CNN during Tuesday's West Virginia primary coverage.

Obama has received 11 new delegates today, 4 super-delegates and 7 former Edwards pledged delegates. Those 7 delegates could vote as they wish, effectively acting as superdelegates.

7 of 19 Edwards delegates have endorsed Obama today. They include South Carolina delegates Daniel Boan, Christine Brennan-Bond, Robert Groce, Susan Smith, Mike Evatt and Lauren Bilton and New Hampshire Delegate Joshua Denton.

In addition CWA President and Superdelegate Larry Cohen, Chairmen Henry Waxman and Howard Berman, Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA) have also endorsed Obama.

Obama has now gotten 45 new delegates since the NC and IN primaries, 34 of which occurred in the 7 days after the primaries and before the Edwards endorsement. 3 of those SDs switched from Clinton. Clinton herself has gotten 5 new Super-delegates in the same time.

Obama is 129.5 delegates away from clinching the nomination. It is likely that Obama will get about 52 new pledged delegates next week from Kentucky and Oregon. That would leave him needing about 77.5 delegates to get to 2026.

According to Donna Brazille, if Obama gets 2026 before May 31st, then Obama will have won the nomination and the May 31st Rules Committee meeting will be cancelled because Obama has already reached the nominating goal. The purpose of the meeting scheduled on the 31st is to resolve a crucial issue. If Obama gets 2026 then the meeting is no longer crucial. I don't know when the meeting would be rescheduled, but it would no longer need to be resolved early.

Obama has been getting about 5 SD/day. At that rate with Edwards 19 and with Oregon and Kentucky, he would get past 2026 in 12 days, May 27th.

If Obama doesn't make 2026 by then, he is likely to garner at least 40 more pledged delegates from the remaining primaries, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota. That would surely get him over the 2026 mark, however  by then, the rules committee meeting may change the nominating number.

Originally posted to tonnyb on Thu May 15, 2008 at 12:19 PM PDT.

Poll

Do you think Obama will get the 2026 needed for the Nomination before the Rules Committee meeting on May 31st?

76%145 votes
23%45 votes

| 190 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Birthday present (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, soms, smallwhitedog

    That would be an awesome present as my birthday is on May 31.  Hope it is so.  I'm tired of this primary and want to get on with the business of kicking repub ass.

    •  I posted this last night... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoundDog

      He can get this wrapped on Tuesday night. And with today's Bush/McSame fireworks it's a sure bet that he will ge 75 Superdelegets THIS WEEKEND.  

      Obama will get the rest of the 2025 on Tuesday and this shit will be OVER!!!

      It's obvious today that the General Election has started and we can not wait for Hillary and her goons to manufactor some kind of Obama scandal to try to win this in the end.

      PRIMARY GAME OVER!!!!  GENERAL ELECTION GAME ON!!!!

      ALL ABOARD!!!!!

      Hillary wins the State of Denial by 40%! Victory at last!

      by Moxie Gurl on Thu May 15, 2008 at 01:19:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I still hope enough supers endorse during the (0+ / 0-)

        primaries that we let voters put him over the 2025 number -- NOT a wimp out with a post election super delegate "annointment."

        Yes, it could be exactly the same super delegate numbers but sybollically the opposite meaning.

        This May 30 meeting puts a new twist on it meaning we need about 80-90 wise and courageous supers, who wish to do the best thing for the party to break ranks with our post election leadership strategy and endorse before OR, KT!

        Someone should caculate the exact number needed taking into account add-on schedules which still could deliver about 20 or more out of 40.

        But I don't know if the timing works out.  But it is easily checkable.

        Then we must pressure the heck out of the leadership and the supers to orchestrate the most graceful, positive, and successful conclusion to this thing -- which appears to me now to letting the OR, KT voter put Obama over the 2025 number.

        Let's get this done!

        Yes, we can!

        Go team!

        The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

        by HoundDog on Thu May 15, 2008 at 01:57:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You're right (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoundDog

          It would be the best way to end this. It would require about 70 delegates, super or otherwise, to endorse before next tuesday. Is it possible? Well today we got 11. I suspect the Obama campaign has been working it.

  •  can you please (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Distillery, smallwhitedog

    include a link to Brazile's statement or other documentation?

  •  Huh... I bet the Clinton campaign hates this (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    soms, The Distillery

    idea. Wonder if it'll fly?

    I am from MN and if you think our caucuses are undemocratic I have a lake to introduce you to.

    by edgeways on Thu May 15, 2008 at 12:22:51 PM PDT

  •  See my earlier diary on this very subject (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pat208, Don Enrique, soms
  •  Here is what Obama needs to do to win (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    murasaki, Jennifer Clare, soms

    nothing.

    He already won.

    Yay!

    The end.

    Insight into change teaches us hope. No matter how bad the situation, anything is possible. - Buddha

    by zenbowl on Thu May 15, 2008 at 12:26:20 PM PDT

  •  also, edwards only has 16 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    murasaki, soms

    at the moment, because per demconwatch, 3 of those are projected state-wide delegates to be allocated at the Iowa State Convention on June 14.

    •  Yup, that's right. (0+ / 0-)

      Won't be any Edwards delegate movement in Iowa for another month.

      But I have to tell you a good story:

      During our District convention on April 26, the Edwards' delegates from the county conventions debated amongst themselves whether to re-align.

      Under the leadership of one of our lcoal Dem activists, they decided not to, since they had enough to be viable for Edwards at the Iowa state Dem convention, and if they had re-aligned, even if all of them had moved to Obama, the math was such that in reality, Hillary would have gotten another delegate, instead of Obama. So they kept an Edwards delegate alive, instead of dropping it to Hillary.

      Democrats promote the Common good. Republicans promote Corporate greed.

      by murasaki on Thu May 15, 2008 at 01:04:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Wow! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    soms

    And this is totally doable!

    If he gets the projected 46 delegates from Kentucky/Oregon, gets 3 more Edwards, delegates, and maintains his 5-supers-a-day habit, then he will be 50 delegates away from 2025 on May 20th.

    Releasing 5 supers a day over the next 10 days bring him to...2025!!!!!!!!!!

    Perfect! This could actually happen.

    Vintage Obama! Listen to an interview he did in 1995 when promoting his book!!

    by jenontheshore on Thu May 15, 2008 at 12:28:15 PM PDT

  •  Clinton will still appeal to the credentials (0+ / 0-)

    committee. She will appeal anything unless MI is seated with no delegates going to Obama because he taking his name off the ballot was 'his decision'.

    Her supporters will cry foul no matter what the decision is, short of that outcome.

    The 55 uncommitted in MI are not really uncommitted. At a  state meeting they gave 18 to Obama and the rest to union-backed delegates.

    From demconwatch:

    I don't know if this article came out of any "official" results, but the Michigan Uncommitted delegate situation is still, well, I don't quite know what to call it:

       In the end, supporters of Obama won half of the 36 Uncommitted delegate seats, while union-backed candidates won the rest. It was a bitter pill for the new Democrats, who felt that all 36 slots should go to true-blue Obama fans.
       ...
       Although most of the Uncommitted delegates said they would support Obama, there is suspicion that many of those not endorsed by the Obama group actually support New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

    It's been written elsewhere that the the non Michiganders-for-Obama should not be assumed to be any less for Obama than the MfOs. But, on the other hand, they probably can't be definitevly counted for Obama either. And officially, they may all have to stay in the Uncommitted category up to the convention - and this is all only if they get seated as is anyway.

    Complete article here.

    You fell victim to one of the classic blunders, the most famous of which is "Never get involved in a land war in Asia".

    by yellowdog on Thu May 15, 2008 at 12:37:14 PM PDT

    •  the MI situation changed radically yesterday: (0+ / 0-)

      that's what the Edwards/Bonior event was about: the Unions hold the power and they'll wield it to force a pro-Obama decision.

      ..to be healed/the broken thing must come apart/then be rejoined.

      by Zacapoet on Thu May 15, 2008 at 01:38:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama DID NOT get 11 super delegates today. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    murasaki, ancblu, kdee

    He received 4 super delegates and 7 pledged delegates.  Please be clear on what you write.

    I agree with the point of the diary though.  As of this point in time, Obama has 1609 Pledged Delegates and 293.5 Super Delegates.  He also is projected to get a total of 33 add-on delegates eventually.  That means he will need 89.5 addtional Pledged and/or Super Delegates by May 31.  Oregon and Kentucky should give him 51 pledged delegates which means he only needs 38.5 more Pledged delegates.  Assuming that some of the 33 add-on delegates may not have declared by May 31, he may need about a total of about 45 additional Pledged Delegates.  This appears quite doable as that would mean only 3 Super Delegates per day between now and May 31.  Also there are still 11 Edwards Pledged Delegates that could switch to Obama.

    Kill your TV, especially the FOX, ABC and CNN channels.

    by ajleiker on Thu May 15, 2008 at 12:59:45 PM PDT

  •  I don't buy this. (0+ / 0-)

    They will meet, because there's sure to be other rules issues to take up.  Maybe they won't put it on the agenda.  But since this issue could change the number of delegates needed, making 2026 moot, I don't see them not hearing it.

    You would think that, at some point, the Clintons would see the writing on the wall, and drop it.  But there probably does need to be some way to seat Florida and Michigan, even if they aren't allowed to vote on the nominee, but only on the platform.  Or get half votes.  Or ban the superdelegates.  Whatever they settle on.  It still needs to be dealt with.

    "You can't depend on your judgment when your imagination is out of focus."
    . . . . . . . . . Mark Twain

    by Land of Enchantment on Thu May 15, 2008 at 01:16:17 PM PDT

    •  It will be dealt with but not in the super charge (0+ / 0-)

      hyper partisan, the fate of the world depends upon it, sort of way that the Clinton campaign is approaching the meeting.

      •  Right (0+ / 0-)

        One of the things I have come to dislike about Hillary, increasingly over time, is all this hyper drama.  I know the media drives it a lot, too.  So I'm sick of the symbiotic drama queen narrative that they've driven together.  Remembering, too, that swiftboating mostly describes what the media did after a minor media buy.  Not that minor media buy, which would have been nothing without the media megaphone.

        "You can't depend on your judgment when your imagination is out of focus."
        . . . . . . . . . Mark Twain

        by Land of Enchantment on Thu May 15, 2008 at 01:24:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Why is it "2026"? (0+ / 0-)

    I thought it was 2025?

  •  Maybe Hillary changed it (0+ / 0-)

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