This is largely a rehash of a post W.VA. diary, made in anticipation of team Clinton moving the goalposts (again) to 2,209 from 2,025.
We've had two significant developments since: 1) Edwards endorses Obama; and 2) Team Clinton has decided to change their tone. The Edwards endorsement reduces the number of super delegates Obama needs to clear each hurdle as Edwards delegates declare for Obama.
In short, there are four more hurdles Obama has to clear before he is officially the nominee. And we all know what they are.
1. MAJ of Pledged Delegates (no MI/FL) = 1,627 (3,253 Tot) (5/20)
2. MAJ of Pledged Delegates (w/ MI/FL) = 1,783.5 (3,566 Tot) (5/20 or 6/1)
3. MAJ of all Delegates (no MI/FL) = 2,025 (4,049 Tot) (5/31 or 6/1)
4. MAJ of all Delegates (w/ MI/FL)
a. Counting full = 2,209 (4,417 Tot) (6/3)
b. Counting half = 2,116.5 (4,233 Tot) (6/1)
# of Supers Obama needs to clear the last two hurdles = 328.5 (clinch w/out MI/FL) and 382.5 (clinch w/ MI/FL counting full).
More details on each hurdle below the jump and the magic SD # that gets him there.
Obama's current totals: Pledged = 1,608.5; Supers: 292.5; Total = 1,901
1. Majority of Pledged Delegates (no MI/FL) = 1,627
Needs = 18.5 pledged delegates. Obama has 1,607.5.
Clears the Hurdle on: May 20th.
5/20 Needs: 18.5 of 103 pledged delegates available (cinch).
This is a slam dunk on 5/20 and was even before the Edwards endorsement. With 103 pledged delegates at stake on 5/20 in Kentucky and Oregon, Obama will pass this on easily, from Oregon alone. There is NO doubt, even if he gets clobbered in KY, he'll get 20+ (if not 30) out of Oregon, which he'll win by 10+ points, if not 20.
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2. Majority of Pledged Delegates (w/ MI/FL) = 1,783.5
Needs 53 pledged delegates. Obama has 1,730.5 w/ MI and FL included.
Clears Hurdle On: 5/20 or 6/1:
5/20 Needs: Needs 53 of 103 (5/20) or some more Edwards delegates
6/1 Needs: Pick up the remaining needed delegates (1-4) in PR (of 55).
Obama got 67 pledged delegates out of Florida, and there are 55 "uncommitted" delegates out of Michigan. At worst, there is no way Obama doesn't get those 55 and 67 (if not more) under any settlement to count those "primaries." Add the 122 to his total of 1,599.5 = 1,721.5
Yes, he'll probably get clobbered in KY, but even if w give Clinton 2/3 of those delegates, say 31-20, Obama needs 33 of Oregon's 52 to have a MAJ of pledged delegates under the MI/FL full count scenario. Obama is up 20+ points in the latest Oregon poll. I don't think he'll get 33 out of Oregon (I'll say 30-22), so he'll be 3 short. If he picks up a couple pledged Edwards delegates and does a bit better on 5/20, this hurdle will be cleared. If not on 5/20, then on 6/1 in Puerto Rico for sure.
If MI/FL are counted at half, rather than full, then the hurdle is cleared even sooner.
And by the way, counting an election with only one name on the ballot is democracy Stalin and Saddam would be proud of. Look, Saddam got 100% of the vote again! But I digress....
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3. Majority of Total Delegates (no MI/FL) = 2,025
Obama has: 1,901. Obama needs: 124 total delegates.
Clears the Hurdle on: June 1st
June 1st Needs: 71 PD's via 5/20 & 6/1 + 53 SD's (4 SDs/day (x16) = 64)
June 3rd Needs: 88 PD's via primaries + 36 SD's = Magic # SDs is 328.5
Magic Number of SD's to get him there = (Current Tot 292.5 + 53)
OK, these are trickier because one has to estimate how many pledged delegates Obama will get and how many supers and Edwards delegates, and I'm not Poblano or PocketNines, but I'll give it a shot.
Five Contests left: Let's go fairly conservative for Obama:
1. Oregon: 52 Pledged; 57-43 Obama; Delegates 30-22 Obama
2. Kentucky: 51 Pledged; 68-32 Clinton; Delegates 31-20 Hillary
3. Puerto Rico: 55 Pledged; 67-33 Clinton; Delegates 34-21 Hillary
4. Montana: 16 Pledged; 55-45 Obama; Delegates 9-7 Obama
5. South Dakota: 15 Pledged; 55-45 Obama; Delegates 8-7 Obama
Total Estimated Pledged for Obama = 88
Supers needed to clinch = 36
He's been getting about five supers per day, or four. If it keeps up, supers could give him the nomination before June 1st. I estimate he'll net 50 pledged through the 5/20 primaries, and 4 per day for the rest of May (16 x 4 = 64) gives him 114. This would put him 10 short going into PR, where he's a cinch to get those 10 on 6/1.
Even if the Super delegate trickle slows, PR should still put him over the top, or Montana and South Dakota will. My bet is the Super's go even faster, especially after Oregon, but I'll hold off and say June 1st is the day.
Obama has 292.5 supers right now. Add 36 and one gets 328.5, the magic number. If he wants to clinch on June 1st, he'll have to have another 17 delegates, (the number of pledged delegates we calculated he'll get on 6/3), or 345.5, or else wait until June 3rd.
For every Edwards pledged delegate he gets (there are 12 remaining) or if he overperforms in the remaining primaries, reduce the magic number by one. Between the Edwards delegates and an increasing flow of supers, I say he gets there on primary night 6/1.
This hurdle could also be cleared if a MI/FL deal is announced, as Obama would immediately get the 130 (full count) or 65 (half count) delegates, of course, that would also move the goalposts, and necessitate clearing one final hurdle.
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4a. Majority of Total Delegates: Including MI and FL (full) = 2,208.5
Obama has = 2,031 (1,608.5 + 292.5 + 122 (67/55 MI/FL) + 8 MI/FL SD's)
Obama needs = 178 Total Delegates.
Clears Hurdle On: June 3rd
Magic # of Super D's to get him there = 382.5 (Current Tot 292.5 + 90)
What he has includes his current total of pledged delegates (1,608.5) + his current supers (292.5) plus the 122 minimum pledged out of MI/FL (67+55) plus his 8 Super Delegates from those states. That yields 2,031.
Obama needs 178 total delegates. Going through my non-scientific delegate estimate above, I think he'll get around 88 pledged delegates from the remaining primaries, so he'll need 90 more super delegates.
Estimated Pledged from here on: 88
Needed Supers/Edwards to clear hurdle = 90
Again, at the current pace of about 4 or 5 per day, that would give him between 72 (4 per day) or 90 supers (5 per day) by June 3rd (18x4 = 72), (18x5 = 90). I think we are more likely to see 5 per day, but even if its slower, the trickle of Edwards delegates going to Obama will likely make up the difference. Edwards has 23 outstanding delegates counting FL. So far 8 of his 19 other pledged delegates have committed to Obama w/in 2 days. Between the Edwards delegation going to Obama, and the increased superdelegate announcements after Obama's Oregon win (a very white state), and increasing anxiety as the process wears on, I say he clears this hurdle on June 3rd. If not earlier.
For every Edwards delegate, or extra pledged he gets in the primaries over my projections, he needs one less super.
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4b. MAJ of All Delegates with MI/FL Counting Half = 2,116.5
Obama has = 1,966 (1,901 + 65)
Obama Needs = 150.5 More Delegates
Obama Clears Hurdle on = June 3rd
Magic Number of Supers to Clear = 366.5/367 (Current Tot 285.5 + 81)
The full count is worst case for Obama, if the delegates from MI/FL only count half, Clinton will get less of an edge, and he'll have less make up work to do. Thus, this hurdle will be cleared before the full count hurdle is cleared. Still, as it may be the more likely scenario, I thought I'd put the numbers up anyway.
MI/FL = 368 Total Dels (313 Pledged + 55 Supers)
If each count 1/2 = 184 + 4,049 = 4,233
MAJ w/ 1/2 MI/FL = 2,116.5
Obama currently has 1,901 delegates. He currently has 130 out of FL/MI (67 Pledged out of FL, 55 "uncommitted" from MI, and 8 supers). Cut that in half for 65. Add together for 1,966, 150.5 short of the needed 2,116.5.
Per the above calculations, Obama nets 88 Pledged in the remaining primaries (50 on 5/20, 21 on 6/1, and 17 on 6/3). Leaving him 62.5 short. At the rate he's been collecting supers (4 or 5/day), he'll get that by the end of May (18 x 4 = 72), though he won't net the additional 17 he'll collect in the June primaries unless the pace increases to 5 per day (90 supers). Coupled with the increased pace of declarations after Oregon and the Edwards delegates switching over, I think this hurdle will be cleared on June 1 in PR. If, not, then easily on the 3rd.
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To sum up, I think Obama will clinch the thing before voting ends, or, at the latest, the night voting ends on June 3rd. There will be no post election superdelegate convention nor a fight to or at the convention.
The pledged delegate totals are fairly predictable w/in a certain window, so the timing all depends on the rate of the Superdelegate announcements.
This seems even more obvious has team Clinton has changed her tone in the last two days or so. The FL/MI decision will be on 5/31 and put that issue to rest, so she can claim a victory there and bow out with honor, maybe even after a PR win. Even if she doesn't drop out, she'll train her guns on McCain for the remainder of the calender.
With both Obama and Clinton going after Johnny Fifth from bottom, which will allow Dems to erode his support in 2 major constituencies: 1) Reagan Democrats (Hillary's guns); 2) Independents and Moderate Republicans (Obama's guns); while simultaneously shoring and firing up the Dem base.
I would HOPE it goes down something like this. On 5/31 is the Rules Committee meeting. A MI/FL decision will be made. Hillary will likely win PR on the 6/1. At that point, everyone will now the exact delegate counts and popular vote counts, and we'll know she isn't ahead on either (counting IA, NV, ME, WA). At this point, she'll have a PR victory and a MI/FL victory (of sorts). They are the last victories she'll have. She can step aside graciously on 6/1 after her win.
This will start the healing/uniting process and get her out of the way entirely so 6/3 can be all about Obama.
The 3rd would be a great day to go over the top for several reasons, besides the fact that the math makes it likely. 1) Pledged delegates will put him over the top, not supers (if the SD's announcements are timed correctly); 2) He'll win both states that night, the only night the rest of the way where Hillary won't win at least one state; and 3) It will give some national spotlight to South Dakota and Montana and give us chance to expand the map in November; 4) If Hillary does bow out on the first (or second), the third will be all Obama.
He can then give a rousing, uniting speech that sets the tone and parameters for the general, and hopefully contrasts himself to the McCain/Bush GOP brand, both on policy (taxes, global warming, torture, Pakistan, negotiation, Iraq, health care, mortgage crisis), integrity (gas tax, appeasement, and McCain flip flops on: taxes, torture, tolerance, pulling out troops, talking with Hamas, trying to scare Jewish voters (Hagee), attacking people's spouses, and feigned Bush golf holidays).
Here's hoping it goes down that way.