Rasmussen recently published results of their first (as far as I know) poll involving more than the two major party candidates. While I am glad to see some reality based polling going on (there will be 5 or 6 candidates on most of the ballot for Pres in most states in November), Rasmussen has some pretty serious flaws in methodology (shocking, I know).
Obama earns 42% of the vote, McCain 38%, Bob Barr 6% and Ralph Nader 4%. Given those options, 11% were undecided.Barr and Nader were mentioned as candidates of the Libertarian Party and the Green Party respectively.
By comparison, today's 2-way numbers were Obama 45 McCain 44 - clearly this is good news for Obama, even if the real pull the lever November support of these two candidates is only half what is shown here. Details on the poll numbers, as well as analysis of both the results and Rasmussen's flawed methodology after the jump.
Barr picked up 7% of the Republican vote, 5% of the Democratic vote, and 5% of the unaffiliated vote. participants to choose between Barack Obama, John McCain and some other candidate.
Nader got 1% of the Republican vote, 3% of the Democratic vote, and 8% support from those not affiliated with either major party.
It's interesting to note that A)Barr pulls more from McCain than Nader does from Obama, and B) Barr gets more democratic support than Nader - most of Nader's support comes from 'people unaffiliated with either major party' - which of course includes several million voters who are members of 3rd parties, and not 'unaffiliated' as all.
It's the last sentence of the first graph, however, that is a big, well, fabrication:
Barr and Nader were mentioned as candidates of the Libertarian Party and the Green Party respectively.
1) Ralph Nader is not a Green
Ralph Nader is not a member of the Green Party, nor has he ever been. He was our candidate in 2000, but NOT in 2004. Greens in 2004 decided not to endorse Nader, instead choosing to nominate relatively unknown party activist David Cobb, who concentrated on raising money for and supporting local candidates.
2) Cynthia McKinney will win the Green Party Nomination
There is more of a chance of Obama losing the Dem nomination in August than McKinney losing it in July at the Green Party Convention in Chicago. Nader has said unequivocally that he is not seeking the Green Party nomination in 2008, but is running as an independent candidate. As in 2004, there are some Greens (mainly limited to California this time), who want to nominate no one, and instead endorse Nader and give him our ballot lines. At the convention in July, two things have to occur for this to happen. The Greens have to nominate 'no candidate', and then vote to endorse a Nader candidacy. In 2004, we were facing an illegal war in Iraq, the possibility of another 4 years of Bush, and backlash from progressives at a local level against Greens b/c of Nader being blamed for Bush in 2000, and thus an unknown got the nomination over Nader. This year, we have a Dem congress, voted into office to stop the war, than has shown no ability or real inclination to do so, serious Nader fatigue amongst Greens, and a six term Black woman former Dem who stands for everything Greens do, and projects an image of a diverse Green Party that long time Greens activists have been working toward for a long time.
McKinney is ahead in the official delegate count McKinney 167, Nader 113, Others 77, NOTA/Umcommitted 19) but Nader drew a huge chunk of his support in 2004 from three states: CA, FL & NY. Nader did well in CA (2:1 over McKinney), but not nearly as well as he did in 2004, but the NY delegate count, which was 36-4 Nader-Cobb in 2004 (I was one of the 4), is probably going to go to McKinney by a significant margin, as will Fl, NJ, PA, etc, and she may even win on the first ballot.
3) 3 old white guys and a young black guy.
The poll includes McCain (old white guy - see last night's SNL), Barr (old white former Congresscritter), Nader (even older white/Lebanese guy, but more people think Obama is Muslim than realize that Nader's parents are Lebanese), and Obama. Let's add a Black Woman to that equation - in fact, the first black woman elected to Congress from the state of Georgiam who voted against the Patriot Act, every funding bill for Iraq, and introduced article sof Impeachment against Bush, Cheney & Rice. After a divisive dem race where the losing democratic candidate got more than 15 million votes, most of them from women, I think at least a few disenchanted Hillary supporters them will consider voting for McKinney over McCain, many of whom wouldn't vote for Nader.
4) Bob Barr may not win the LP nomination.
He got in the race late, the purist libertarians don't think he's libertarian enough, and he's running against literally 16 other people. No one really has any clue what will happen in Denver next weekend, but if Obama and the DNC were smart, they'd try to infiltrate the LP convention to sway delegates to vote for Bob Barr, who is the Dems wet dream of a third party candidate, as he may well get Nader 2000 numbers (not 6%, but 3% will really hurt McCain, who is having a tough time rally the various constituents of the GOP as it is) mostly drawing from the fiscal conservatives that McCain desperately needs to win. I wish I could be a fly on the wall for the floor fight for the LP nomination, between the people who want to build the party into something that can get more than 1/2% of the vote every 4 years, those trying to continue to build on the Ron Paul revolution, and those who want their candidates pure and therefore irrelevantly Libertarian. If I can find a link to a webcast or broadcast of the LP convention, I will add an update.
5) Chuck Baldwin
Chuck Baldwin, a former campaign insider for Ron Paul, as won the Constitution Party nomination. I doubt he'll do as well as Bob Barr would, but if Ron Paul endorses, or there continues to be discontent among the social conservative Republicans, especially in dark red NW Florida where Baldwin is a pastor and radio talk show host, I think a bunch of the votes Rasmussen has going to Barr may go to him, and perhaps enough votes in Florida to affect a tight race.
As in 2000 and 2004, this poll probably overstates the real 3rd party vote totals (Nader polled 6-7% of the vote a week before the 2000 race, and got 2.7%), but there is a lot of discontent out there, inside and outside the two major parties. I think it likely that Obama will have to win a landslide to get more than 50% of the vote, but it's not hard to see a scenario where McCain gets less than 40%, especially if Barr gets the LP nomination, and Barr and/or Baldwin get into debates. The Obama folks should really push to have at least one national debate with the major 3rd party candidates (in September, say), as McCain has more to lose than Obama at this point.