In an article in Slate.com, entititled, "How will Barack Obama get to 270?" Democratic Pollster Paul Maslin continues the tired, ineffective seventeen-state argument that the only way for Barack Obama to win this fall is for him to pull out victories in a handful of key Purple states. The implication is that somehow that means that we need to focus all our resources on those states—as the Kerry campaign so disastrously tried in 2004.
Here’s the problem: In an ever more communicative and mobile society, what Maslin and John Kerry’s entire election staff ignored, and what the Republicans and right-wing radio clearly understand, is that the path to those crucial 17 states is through the 50 states.
It’s all about influence leaders, and many of them are rural and live in Red States. So, Uncle Harry in Wyoming listens to Rush Limbaugh every morning without any refutation from progressive radio or from Democratic advertising, and then advises his three beloved nieces in Colorado and Iowa to vote for McCain on Election Day. Or farmer Sarah sends out a daily email blast spreading Obama rumors from the mountains of Tennessee to 400 of her internet friends throughout America—including many in some very blue and purple states.
Here in liberal Missoula, Montana, we’re incredibly proud of our new Nobel Laureate and climate scientist, Steve Running—and yet, less than 200 miles away in Choteau, Montana, he was "disinivited" from speaking to Choteau High School on careers in science because of global warming nonsense spread by right wing radio. (http://missoulian.com/articles/2008/01/17/news/local/news02.txt )
Conversely, some of the strongest and best advocates for progressive causes are located in rural areas and some rural areas serve as hotbeds of support and energy. For instance, Marcy Westerling of the Rural Organizing Project in Scappoose, OR has organized "human dignity groups" in fifty rural Oregon communities, using small town church or town hall forums "to encourage people to engage in face-to-face political discussion. The network that has resulted has become .... an important organizing tool for ROP, in realizing its first victory: the defeat of Proposition 9, an anti-gay initiative advanced in 1992." (http://leadershipforchange.org/awardees/awardee.php3?ID=127) And here is Montana, the 1978 state-wide initiative that required nuclear plants to meet the same safety and liability standards as any other business, was driven by rural agricultural fears of the loss of August water rights because of the preemptive water right that all nuclear plants must have to operate safely. And, we can't forget Red-with-a-Little-Purple-State victories by Jon Tester in Montana and Jim Webb in Virginia that led to the 2006 Democratic takeover of control of the US Senate.
So, yes, the superficial analysis is accurate that there are only a handful of states in play for the final Electoral College result. However, it may well be that "only" a three point win by McCain in Montana, or a closer than expected Obama/McCain race in Mississippi may not only factor heavily into Obama’s final national victory margin in other states, but may also contribute to the dynamic majority in Congress that President Obama will need to govern more effectively. (What happens in neighboring Minnesota and Iowa if North and South Dakota and Nebraska have closer races because Obama runs better there than expected?)
Obama’s 50-state strategy, (remember Idaho and Nebraska?), has already proven the crucial difference in his race with Hillary, and bean counters who focus only on "winnable" states should not be surprised when Obama’s 50-state effort plays a major part in Obama’s success in the fall. (A final note to this argument is to remind readers of James Carville’s idiotic attempts to demonize Howard Dean’s 50-state effort in 2006 after it led to the first dual-house Democratic Congressional majorities since 1994.)
The only possible benefit to the seventeen-state strategy is that it may possibly help party insiders like James Carville solidify their control over the Democratic Party, but it’s a Keno strategy at best-—hit all seventeen numbers or lose.
We will win and hold the hearts of Americans, and regularly win presidencies, only when the Democratic vision of progress and mutual support for all Americans is regularly sounded in all fifty states, in every city, in every territory, and, more importantly, in every town, in America.